Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

Carrier Global

(BMV:CARR)

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Positive Factors

Strong Cash GenerationCarrier is generating substantial operating and free cash flow despite reported net losses, providing internal funding for investment, debt service, dividends, and buybacks. Strong conversion supports resilience and gives management flexibility to pursue capacity expansion and product development.

Negative Factors

Severe Profitability DeteriorationThe latest loss and lower gross margin weaken earnings resilience and show that revenue growth has not translated into dependable profitability. If pressure persists, Carrier may have less capacity to fund growth internally and could face greater sensitivity to operational or cyclical setbacks.

Carrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 44.21B
Dividend Yield: 1.73%
Average Volume (3M): 2,073
Price to Earnings (P/E): -24.3
Beta (1Y): -0.01
Revenue Growth: -7.46%
EPS Growth: -175.88%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 47,000
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Industrial - Machinery

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structure...

Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.45%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Carrier reported strong third-quarter financial results, broad-based order growth, record backlog, exceptional data center momentum, improving residential and European markets, and an upgraded full-year sales outlook. The primary challenges were substantial tariff and input cost inflation, lower-than-expected pricing realization, CSA margin pressure, the Climate Solutions Europe impairment, and weakness in transportation and some regional or end markets. Management remained confident in its ability to address these issues through pricing, productivity, restructuring, supply chain actions, and capacity expansion.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance

Organic sales grew 15%, adjusted operating profit increased about 35%, adjusted operating margins expanded 260 basis points, and adjusted EPS increased 30%. Excluding the impact of IEEPA refunds, adjusted EPS increased approximately 15%.

Negative Updates

Significant Input Cost and Tariff Headwinds

Carrier expects unexpected in-year input cost headwinds of $550 million-$600 million, driven by tariffs, commodities, and supply chain inefficiencies. Total full-year input cost headwinds are about $800 million, with a little less than half attributable to tariffs, and management expects another large inflationary headwind in 2027.

Company Guidance

Carrier now expects 2026 full-year sales to be nearly $24 billion, organic growth of about 10%, CSA full-year operating margin of about 19%, and adjusted EPS of $2.85-$2.90; it also expects double-digit EPS growth this year despite unexpected in-year input cost headwinds of $550 million-$600 million, with gross productivity about $600 million, and remains on track to deliver its full year commitment of $2 billion in data center sales. CSA residential market volumes are now expected to be between 7.5 million and 8 million units, CSA has announced price actions across the portfolio of up to 10%, including 8% for resi, and 2027 guidance is not yet provided, although management expects another year of double-digit EPS growth, will target double-digit EPS growth, and does not expect a snapback in the first or the second quarter.

Carrier Global Risk Analysis

Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

MX:CARR against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EMR	76Outperform	$92.00B	35.91	12.69%	1.35%	4.82%	-1.66%
TT	71Outperform	$89.75B	28.83	36.01%	1.00%	10.34%	8.80%
LII	66Neutral	$11.77B	15.91	60.10%	1.55%	1.92%	-9.14%
MOD	65Neutral	$6.90B	48.60	12.64%	―	29.47%	-23.92%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AAON	53Neutral	$5.56B	34.74	17.21%	0.59%	53.53%	29.55%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:CARR and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MX:CARR	Carrier Global Corp.	1014.81	-68.06	-6.29%
AAON	Aaon Inc	67.40	-22.14	-24.73%
EMR	Emerson Electric	164.94	29.33	21.63%
TT	Trane Technologies Plc	410.00	-18.96	-4.42%
LII	Lennox International	344.08	-142.33	-29.26%
MOD	Modine Manufacturing	129.76	-11.58	-8.19%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Carrier Global AI Stock Analysis