EarningsQ3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:ADC Q3 2026 EPS Results
Actual EPS$9.92
Consensus EPS$8.85
Beat/MissBeat by +$1.07
One Year Ago EPS$8.42
MX:ADC Q3 2026 Revenue Results
Actual Revenue$4.00B
Expected Revenue$3.96B
Beat/MissBeat by +$44.22M
YoY Revenue Growth+16.73%
Earnings Announcement Details
QuarterQ3 2026
Date10/20/2026
TimeAfter Close
Conference CallTuesday, October 20, 2026
MX:ADC Upcoming Earnings
Agree Realty's next earnings date is estimated for February 16, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:ADC Q3 2026 Earnings Call
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Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported record occupancy, 4.9% quarterly per-share earnings growth, raised 2026 AFFO guidance, strong liquidity, conservative leverage, record development activity, successful capital raising, and favorable leasing and disposition results. The principal challenges were higher spot capital costs, a reduced investment volume target, elevated third-quarter dead deal costs, uncertain cap-rate conditions, and pressure among distressed and lower-tier retailers. Management presented these challenges as reasons for greater selectivity and repricing while maintaining its growth outlook.Company Guidance
Record Portfolio Occupancy and Scale
The portfolio remained at a company-record 99.8% occupied and was approaching 2,900 properties across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Investment-grade exposure was approximately 65% of annualized base rents.
Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
Third-quarter core FFO and AFFO were each $1.15 per share, representing a 4.9% increase from the same quarter last year.
Raised 2026 AFFO Guidance
Full-year 2026 AFFO per share guidance was increased to $4.58-$4.59, implying year-over-year growth of nearly 6% at the midpoint. The increase was driven by continued strong portfolio performance and lower assumed treasury stock method dilution.
Resilient Credit and Occupancy Performance
The company updated its 2026 assumption for fully loaded credit and occupancy loss to 15 basis points from 25 basis points previously. Year-to-date fully loaded credit and occupancy loss was only 9 basis points.
Disciplined Acquisition Activity
Agree Realty invested approximately $360 million in 94 high-quality retail net lease properties during the quarter, including 68 acquisitions totaling approximately $310 million. The acquired properties had a weighted average cap rate of 7.3%, a weighted average lease term of 14.5 years, and investment-grade retailers represented over 52% of acquired annualized base rents.
Acquisition Cap Rates Expanded
Acquisition cap rates expanded by 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 7.3%. Management said it expects cap rates to expand materially further in the fourth quarter while prioritizing value creation over volume.
High-Quality Retail Acquisitions
Notable acquisitions included a Walmart Supercenter, a new BJ's Wholesale location, a portfolio of Gerber Collision properties, two Hobby Lobbies, five Five Belows, and ground leases to Lowe's and Home Depot.
Development Platform Growth
The company broke ground on six developments representing total anticipated costs of $57 million, including four new 7-Eleven projects. The platform now has 12 7-Eleven projects commenced.
Record Development Completions
Seven projects were completed during the quarter, representing a company-record total cost of over $82 million. The completed projects included three 7-Elevens and several Burlington and Ross locations; the quarterly total exceeded the total cost of all projects completed in 2024.
Development and DFP Pipeline Expansion
Construction continued on eight projects with aggregate anticipated costs of $88 million. Through September 30, the company had commenced approximately $163 million of projects, nearly doubling the level achieved in the prior period, and remained on track toward its medium-term objective of $250 million in annual development and developer funding platform commencements.
Record Committed Development Capital
During the first nine months, 26 projects were either completed or under construction, representing a company-record total of over $255 million of committed capital. Across all three external growth platforms, the company invested approximately $1.3 billion in 261 retail net lease properties spanning 42 states and the District of Columbia across 29 retail sectors.
Accretive Capital Recycling
The company sold 11 properties during the quarter for gross proceeds of approximately $27 million at a weighted average cap rate of 6.5%, which was 80 basis points inside the acquisition cap rate for the period. Management said it expects to recycle capital at approximately 175-200 basis point spreads in the fourth quarter and into 2027.
Higher Disposition Guidance
Full-year disposition volume is now expected to be $100 million-$150 million, increased from the prior range of $50 million-$100 million. Management cited strong demand from 1031 and bonus depreciation buyers and said it expects disposition activity to continue into next year.
Strong Lease Renewal and Recapture Results
The company executed new leases, extensions, or options covering over 860,000 square feet during the quarter at an approximately 106% recapture rate, the highest level in six quarters. Through the first nine months, it completed 2.5 million square feet of leasing activity at a recapture rate above 105%.
Limited Near-Term Lease Rollover
Only 11 leases, representing 20 basis points of annualized base rent, remained scheduled to mature during the year. Management said the portfolio benefits from limited lease rollovers and approximately 1% internal growth through same-store NOI.
Strong Liquidity and Conservative Leverage
Total liquidity was approximately $2 billion, including cash, outstanding forward equity, and full availability under the revolving credit facility. Pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA was approximately 3.9x, net debt to enterprise value was approximately 29%, and fixed-charge coverage including the preferred dividend was 4.1x. The company had no short-term or floating-rate borrowings and no material debt maturities until 2028.
Successful Long-Term Bond Financing
Agree Realty completed a $400 million public bond offering of 5.65% senior unsecured notes due in 2036. The offering priced at a 90 basis point spread, the tightest spread achieved for a 10-year public bond offering in the company's history. Hedging proceeds reduced the all-in interest rate to 5.36%, nearly 50 basis points below the yield to maturity.
Value from Hedging Program
Over the past six years, the company generated more than $82 million of net proceeds from its hedging program, translating into nearly $8 million of annual interest savings.
Strong Capital Raising and Future Funding
The company raised or settled over $825 million of debt and equity capital during the quarter and nearly $1.5 billion year-to-date. It settled approximately 5.7 million shares of existing forward equity for net proceeds of over $425 million, while 8.8 million outstanding forward shares represented anticipated net proceeds of over $657 million.
Growing Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow after the dividend is expected to exceed $140 million for the year, representing more than a 10% year-over-year increase.
Dividend Growth and Coverage
The quarterly monthly dividend was $0.267 per common share, equivalent to an annualized dividend of over $3.20 per share and a 4.3% year-over-year increase. The dividend payout ratio was approximately 69% of third-quarter AFFO per share. The company subsequently declared a $0.271 monthly dividend, equivalent to an annualized dividend of over $3.25 per share and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.
2027 Earnings Outlook
Management said the balance sheet and portfolio position the company to generate mid-single-digit AFFO growth per share and double-digit operational returns in 2027, without sacrificing balance sheet strength or investment criteria.
Lower Competitive Pressure and DFP Opportunity
Management said overall competition for deals is lower because capital is more expensive and constrained. It also said construction financing, long-term financing, and dispositions could be more problematic for developers, potentially creating more developer funding platform activity, and that the company is exploring a number of options.
Development Return Potential
Management said the higher-rate environment could provide the ability to push development returns on cost higher. The company enters development transactions with a significant margin and cited the potential value of gas station projects to bonus depreciation purchasers.
Retailer and Portfolio Quality Focus
Management reiterated that it will remain retail-focused, partner with the largest U.S. retailers, and will not move up the risk curve. The company said its entire portfolio tested at 76% investment grade using Moody's RiskCalc, while also emphasizing the quality of non-rated retailers such as Aldi, Hobby Lobby, Ulta, Publix, and Wegmans.
Ground Lease Portfolio
The portfolio included 270 ground leases representing 10% of annualized base rents, with approximately 85% investment-grade exposure.
MX:ADC Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed