Matador Resources (MTDR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.89B
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 14.77%
• EPS Growth: -17.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 452
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.36
• Shares Outstanding: 124,270,676
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,180,274
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,296,498
• PEG Ratio: 9.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.56
• 1Y Price Target: $58.15
• Price Target Upside: 47.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.61B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(11.82% Upside)

Matador Resources shows strong financial performance and attractive valuation, which are the most significant factors supporting its stock score. The company's robust cash flow and strategic growth plans are positive indicators. However, technical analysis reveals bearish trends, and potential market oversupply and pricing volatility pose risks. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, balancing growth prospects with market challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation capabilities enhance Matador's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, supporting long-term stability.

Operational Efficiency

Cost savings through operational efficiency improve profitability and provide a competitive edge in the oil and gas sector.

Midstream Performance

Strong midstream performance supports Matador's integrated operations, enhancing revenue stability and growth potential.

Negative Factors

Net Profit Margin Decline

A declining net profit margin indicates rising costs or financial pressures, which could impact long-term profitability if not addressed.

Natural Gas Pricing Volatility

Volatility in natural gas pricing can affect revenue predictability and financial planning, posing a risk to consistent cash flows.

Potential Oversupply Risks

Potential oversupply in the oil market could pressure prices, affecting Matador's revenue and strategic growth plans.

Matador Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Primarily focused on the Delaware Basin in New Mexico and Texas, Matador operates in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry. The company is involved in the acquisition of oil and gas properties and the drilling of horizontal wells to extract hydrocarbons, making it a key player in the rapidly evolving energy sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Matador Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced from its operations. The company employs a revenue model based on the extraction and sale of these hydrocarbons at market prices. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of oil and gas to various purchasers, which can include large oil companies, midstream companies, and end-users. Additionally, Matador often enters into hedging contracts to manage price volatility, providing a more stable revenue stream. The company also benefits from cost efficiencies in its drilling and production processes, which can enhance profitability. Strategic partnerships with service providers and midstream companies further support its operations, allowing for effective transportation and processing of its products, ultimately contributing to its earnings.

Matador Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Matador Resources demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue and cash flow growth. The company has effectively managed its leverage, reflected in the improved debt-to-equity ratio. However, the decline in net profit margin and ROE suggests potential areas for improvement. Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth, but maintaining profitability and efficiency will be crucial.

Income Statement

Matador Resources shows strong revenue growth with a 2.1% increase in TTM, following a robust 23.5% annual growth in 2024. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 76.3% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased to 20.3% from 25.4% in 2024, suggesting increased expenses or other financial pressures. Overall, the company demonstrates solid profitability and growth, but the declining net profit margin is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.38 in TTM from 0.68 in 2024, reflecting better leverage management. Return on equity decreased to 14.7% in TTM from 17.4% in 2024, indicating slightly reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. While leverage has improved, the decline in ROE warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Matador Resources achieved a remarkable 121.5% growth in free cash flow in TTM, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains robust at 2.01, indicating healthy cash flow relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio improved to 38.7%, reflecting enhanced cash conversion efficiency. Overall, the cash flow position is very strong, supporting future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.84B	3.48B	2.82B	3.06B	1.66B	862.13M
Gross Profit	2.93B	1.54B	1.33B	1.88B	891.54M	227.77M
EBITDA	2.55B	2.42B	1.94B	2.23B	1.14B	-353.67M
Net Income	781.21M	885.32M	846.07M	1.21B	584.97M	-553.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.65B	10.85B	7.73B	5.55B	4.26B	3.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.15M	23.03M	52.66M	505.18M	48.13M	57.92M
Total Debt	2.12B	2.11B	2.27B	1.16B	1.53B	1.81B
Total Liabilities	5.79B	5.39B	3.60B	2.24B	2.13B	2.17B
Stockholders Equity	5.51B	5.09B	3.91B	3.11B	1.91B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	976.89M	280.04M	318.02M	894.75M	319.88M	-302.87M
Operating Cash Flow	2.53B	2.25B	1.87B	1.98B	1.05B	477.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.96B	-3.67B	-3.21B	-1.04B	-729.26M	-775.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-545.13M	1.41B	902.33M	-480.85M	-328.55M	324.34M

Matador Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTDR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.60, below the 50-day MA of 44.37, and below the 200-day MA of 47.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTDR.

Matador Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTDR	76 Outperform	$4.89B	6.30	15.06%	3.34%	14.77%	-17.38%
APA	73 Outperform	$8.46B	5.69	27.24%	4.20%	4.88%	-41.34%
CHRD	70 Outperform	$4.97B	33.83	2.02%	6.28%	8.43%	-86.63%
CNX	69 Neutral	$4.74B	24.53	6.98%	―	43.30%	-43.07%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
MGY	65 Neutral	$4.14B	12.22	17.51%	2.64%	0.68%	-11.13%
CRK	61 Neutral	$6.75B	103.32	2.86%	―	35.41%	―

Matador Resources Corporate Events

Matador Resources Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance

Matador Resources Company, an independent energy firm, specializes in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources, primarily focusing on the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. In its recent earnings report, Matador Resources highlighted a robust third quarter of 2025, showcasing significant growth in production and financial performance. The company reported record production levels, including a 22% year-over-year increase in total production, and a notable increase in oil and natural gas outputs. Matador also announced a 20% increase in its annual dividend and has repurchased 1.3 million shares, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company has revised its full-year 2025 guidance upward, expecting increased production and a higher number of operated wells turned to sales. Looking ahead, Matador anticipates further production growth in 2026 while reducing capital expenditures by 8 to 12%, reflecting its focus on operational efficiency and strategic growth. The company remains optimistic about its future prospects, supported by a strong balance sheet and a flexible capital program.

Matador Resources’ Earnings Call: Cautious Optimism Amid Growth

Matador Resources’ recent earnings call conveyed a cautiously optimistic sentiment, underscoring the company’s achievements in operational efficiency, financial performance, and strategic growth. While the call celebrated increased dividends and cost savings, it also acknowledged potential challenges such as a possible oversupply in the oil market by 2026 and volatility in natural gas pricing.

Matador Resources Reports Record Q3 Production, Raises Guidance

On October 21, 2025, Matador Resources reported its third-quarter results, highlighting record production levels and increased full-year guidance for 2025. The company announced a dividend increase and share repurchase, reflecting strong financial performance and growth. Matador’s strategic land acquisitions and operational efficiencies have positioned it as a leading exploration and production company in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The company also provided a positive outlook for 2026, expecting continued production growth and capital efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Increases Quarterly Dividend by 20%

On October 15, 2025, Matador Resources Company announced an amendment to its dividend policy, resulting in a 20% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.375 per share, effective from the fourth quarter of 2025. This marks the seventh increase in four years, reflecting the company’s confidence in its financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Promotes Robert Macalik to CFO Role

Matador Resources Company announced the promotion of Robert T. Macalik to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 29, 2025. Mr. Macalik, who has been with Matador since 2015, will continue his role as CFO of San Mateo Midstream, LLC. His promotion follows the cessation of William D. Lambert as CFO on September 24, 2025, which was unrelated to any financial disagreements. Mr. Macalik’s extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, along with his leadership in Matador’s finance and IT teams, positions him well for his new role, enhancing the company’s strategic financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.