Want to see MRP full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
(NYSE:MRP)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
â–¼(-17.82% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
MRP’s score is driven primarily by strong current financial performance (high profitability and standout free cash flow) and favorable valuation (low P/E with a very high dividend yield), supported by a constructive earnings outlook and liquidity messaging. These positives are meaningfully tempered by very weak technicals (price well below key averages with bearish momentum) and the mixed longer-term track record implied by earlier losses/negative cash flow and rapid capital-structure shifts.
Positive Factors
Scaled and increasingly diversified homesite platform
The broad homesite portfolio and growing counterparty base provide operating scale while reducing reliance on a single customer relationship. Expansion beyond Lennar, including the first multifamily land-banking relationship, supports a more diversified platform over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Mortgage rates and affordability constrain housing demand
Persistent affordability pressure can slow homebuyer demand, particularly among first-time buyers, and may reduce builders’ appetite or ability to take down homesites. This could weaken deployment velocity, delay cash realization, and pressure transaction economics across affected markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scaled and increasingly diversified homesite platform
The broad homesite portfolio and growing counterparty base provide operating scale while reducing reliance on a single customer relationship. Expansion beyond Lennar, including the first multifamily land-banking relationship, supports a more diversified platform over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.45B
Dividend Yield13.73%
Average Volume (3M)2.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth228.24%
EPS Growth890.54%
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.87
Shares Outstanding154,228,120
10 Day Avg. Volume4,697,162
30 Day Avg. Volume2,634,192
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)8.26
P/FCF Ratio1.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside15.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$810.48M
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier permanent capital solution for residential homebuilders and developers. The company specializes in the acquisition, financing and development of residential land through long-term, capital-efficient structu...
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable platform fundamentals: large and growing invested capital, strong capital recycling and redeployment, consistent underwriting (21% underwritten gross margin), expanding product use cases (first multifamily deal), robust recurring AFFO and an increased dividend supported by recurring earnings. These positives outweigh the noted headwinds — elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures, lower upfront deposits, modest yield/mix volatility, and cautious leverage management — which the company is actively managing through underwriting discipline, liquidity, and contingency planning. Overall tone was constructive and confident about growth opportunities while acknowledging cyclical challenges.Positive Updates
Scale of invested capital and portfolio
Invested capital reached $8.8 billion with total assets of ~$9.7 billion. Portfolio comprises ~144,000 homesites across 877 communities in 30 states, serving 19 counterparties; 32% of invested capital is deployed outside the Lennar master program (Lennar = 68%).
Negative Updates
Macro affordability headwinds and mortgage rates
Mortgage rates remain elevated (noted as above 6%), driving affordability constraints that disproportionately impact first-time buyers and constrain demand in portions of the market; company acknowledges full-year 2026 delivery guidance is moving lower among the largest public builders.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Scale of invested capital and portfolio
Invested capital reached $8.8 billion with total assets of ~$9.7 billion. Portfolio comprises ~144,000 homesites across 877 communities in 30 states, serving 19 counterparties; 32% of invested capital is deployed outside the Lennar master program (Lennar = 68%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In Q2 2026 Millrose reaffirmed disciplined deployment and gave explicit run-rate and balance-sheet guidance: invested capital was $8.8B (total assets $9.7B), with ~144,000 homesites across 877 communities in 30 states serving 19 counterparties (68% Lennar / 32% outside Lennar) and zero option terminations since inception; the firm recycled ~$1.0B and redeployed $1.1B during the quarter (including a $284M early development‑loan repayment) and saw roughly $1.0B of net takedown proceeds; AFFO was $127.6M ($0.77/share) with exit run‑rate AFFO $0.80/share (net income ~$125.9M, $0.76/share), book value per share $35.24, and a raised quarterly dividend of $0.77/share (annualized yield 8.8%); other‑agreement yield was 10.6% and new‑deal underwritten gross margin averaged 21%; balance sheet metrics: debt-to-capitalization 30%, $485M revolver outstanding, $34M cash, ~$1.4B available liquidity, management fees $29.9M (1.25% of gross tangible assets), interest expense ~ $40M and tax expense ~ $2.5M; management reiterated unchanged underwriting standards, a pipeline that could support roughly $1–2B of net deployment depending on capital and leverage choices, and a planned 25 bp reduction in revolver pricing subject to a fee.Millrose Properties Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 760.54M | 600.46M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 730.63M | 512.71M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 668.76M | 492.17M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -193.05M |
| Net Income | 476.06M | 379.86M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -144.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.71B | 9.26B | 5.47B | 4.74B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.17M | 35.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 2.48B | 2.11B | 24.19M | 32.61M | 117.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.86B | 3.40B | 306.92M | 285.16M | 393.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.85B | 5.86B | 5.16B | 4.46B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.23B | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.23B | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.19B | -5.72B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 927.94M | 2.08B | 917.19M | 865.12M | 328.64M |
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
30.42
Price Trends
27.73
Negative
27.50
Negative
27.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.62
Positive
21.49
Positive
14.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.63, above the 50-day MA of 27.73, and above the 200-day MA of 27.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.49 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRP.
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Risk Analysis
Millrose Properties Inc Class A disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Millrose Properties Inc Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.45B | 7.79 | 8.13% | 13.73% | 228.24% | 890.54% | |
67 Neutral | $17.82B | 21.59 | 16.33% | 3.81% | 1.54% | 310.22% | |
64 Neutral | $18.05B | 42.23 | 7.60% | 3.81% | 4.74% | -48.36% | |
64 Neutral | $13.20B | 32.31 | 7.80% | 4.33% | 0.72% | 111.53% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
22.36
-5.45
-19.58%
ESS
Essex Property
271.57
23.82
9.61%
UDR
UDR
34.12
-0.76
-2.18%
CPT
Camden Property
97.58
-0.15
-0.16%
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Raises $1 Billion in Senior Notes
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
Millrose Properties, Inc. is a real estate-focused company that finances its operations through a mix of senior unsecured notes and credit facilities, positioning itself in the capital markets with multiple long-dated bond issues. Its debt structu...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Millrose Properties Increases Quarterly Dividend Amid Growth
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
On September 23, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of approximately $131.2 million, or $0.79 per share, on both its Class A and Class B common stock. The dividend is scheduled ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Prices $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced it had priced a $1.0 billion private offering of senior notes in two equal tranches, comprising $500 million of 6.500% notes due 2029 and $500 million of 6.750% notes due 2031, each issued...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Announces $1.0 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced it was launching a private offering of up to $1.0 billion in senior notes, split evenly between tranches maturing in 2029 and 2031, sold under Rule 144A and Regulation S. The notes will no...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Expands Revolving Credit Facility and Liquidity
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. expanded its financing capacity by entering into a Commitment and Acceptance with Millrose Properties SPE LLC, MSAB, LLC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, and Flagstar Bank, N.A. a...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Millrose revises founder rights and management agreement
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Millrose Properties Inc. amended its Founder’s Rights Agreement with Lennar entities, adjusting the Priority Amount used for the Capital Priority Right and revising Lennar’s consent rights over secured financing col...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Amends Credit Agreement, Lowers Interest Costs
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. executed Amendment No. 1 to its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with a consortium of lenders and issuing banks, administered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. The amendment modifies the credit facility...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Millrose Properties Posts Strong Q2 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Millrose Properties reported strong second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, posting net income of $125.9 million, or $0.76 per share, on total revenues of $196.9 million and AFFO of $0.77 per share, with a por...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.