ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.36M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 488.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 1.32%
• EPS Growth: 1.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 14,340,049
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 629,613
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 488,398
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 66.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $4.75
• Price Target Upside: 305.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

ModivCare's overall stock score is affected by significant financial instability and operational challenges, as reflected in poor financial performance metrics and a high risk of Nasdaq delisting. While technical indicators suggest potential short-term recovery, poor valuation metrics and mixed earnings call insights indicate ongoing risks. Strategic improvements are necessary for a more favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Financing

ModivCare has secured $75 million in incremental financing and an additional $30 million capital commitment, indicating a strong influx of capital.

Leadership and Strategy

The appointment of a Chief Transformation Officer is expected to focus on asset divestitures, which could unlock significant value for ModivCare.

Profitability

Adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the consensus estimate of $0.17, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Negative Factors

Contract Losses

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

Debt and Financial Risk

With a leverage ratio of 7.8x and $1.3 billion of net debt, the company's equity essentially represents option value, contributing to high stock volatility.

Guidance Withdrawal

ModivCare withdrew its financial guidance for FY/24 and FY/25 due to slower-than-expected expense reductions and contract headwinds.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes contracts with government agencies, managed care organizations (MCOs), and healthcare providers. Its primary revenue stream comes from its non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT) services, where it coordinates and provides transportation for patients who need to travel to medical appointments but lack reliable means of transportation. This service is often funded through Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and other state-sponsored programs. Additionally, ModivCare generates income from its personal and home care services, which offer in-home support for daily activities to individuals with chronic conditions or disabilities. The company also derives revenue from its nutritional meal delivery services, which cater to individuals requiring specific dietary plans due to medical conditions. Key partnerships with healthcare providers and payers enhance its service offerings and contribute significantly to its earnings.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare faces significant financial challenges across all major financial statements. The income statement reveals declining profitability, the balance sheet highlights high leverage and negative equity, and cash flow statements indicate poor cash generation. Immediate strategic changes are necessary to improve financial health and stability.

Income Statement

The company has experienced declining profitability with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin for the latest period, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has stagnated, with only a slight increase from the previous year, highlighting a lack of upward trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity, reflecting financial instability and potential risk. Debt-to-equity ratio is extremely concerning due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is poor, indicating a weak financial structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting poor cash generation and significant cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to negative figures, indicating a challenging cash flow situation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
	Gross Profit
2.79B	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
	EBIT
-92.79M	-139.95M	57.08M	89.77M	123.16M
	EBITDA
4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
	Total Assets
1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
	Total Debt
315.77M	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
	Net Debt
203.19M	1.14B	1.01B	886.48M	334.46M
	Total Liabilities
1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
	Stockholders Equity
-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
	Operating Cash Flow
-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
	Financing Cash Flow
144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.27, below the 50-day MA of 1.76, and below the 200-day MA of 12.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	72 Outperform	$1.47B	14.40	10.79%	2.55%	15.25%	51.77%
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.86B	10.99	10.38%	2.91%	-8.86%	-36.22%
CCRN	55 Neutral	$451.79M	―	-4.00%	―	-29.16%	-140.16%
AVAH	54 Neutral	$934.50M	―	42.49%	―	9.05%	―
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.21B	3.55	-41.91%	2.83%	15.12%	0.42%
AMN	49 Neutral	$747.97M	18.62	-19.11%	―	-21.26%	-172.28%
MODV	34 Underperform	$20.36M	―	-341.96%	―	1.32%	1.95%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Faces Nasdaq Delisting Warning Amid Revenue Decline

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare received a notification from Nasdaq regarding its market value of publicly held shares falling below the required threshold for continued listing. The company has until November 1, 2025, to regain compliance, with potential consequences including delisting or transferring to the Nasdaq Capital Market if compliance is not achieved. In its first quarter of 2025, Modivcare reported a service revenue decline to $650.7 million, a net loss of $50.4 million, and efforts to reduce costs and improve working capital efficiency. The company executed $105 million in new financing to support its transformation efforts and aims to generate over $20 million in annualized G&A savings.

Spark’s Take on MODV Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MODV is a Underperform.

ModivCare’s stock score reflects significant financial instability and operational challenges, with a negative financial outlook. Technical indicators suggest potential short-term recovery, but poor valuation metrics and mixed earnings call insights indicate ongoing risks. Strategic improvements are necessary for a more favorable outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on MODV stock, click here.

ModivCare Announces CFO and CIO Departures

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare announced the planned departures of its Chief Financial Officer, Barb Gutierrez, and Chief Information Officer, Jessica Kral, as part of its strategic business model evolution. The company will not replace these roles, relying instead on existing teams to support its modernization strategy, which includes cost reduction and technology-driven integration efforts. This leadership transition is part of a broader structural shift aimed at increasing organizational speed and accountability.

Spark’s Take on MODV Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MODV is a Underperform.

ModivCare’s overall score reflects significant financial and operational challenges. The company is facing declining profitability, high leverage, poor cash generation, and a challenging valuation position. While the earnings call highlighted some progress in cost efficiencies and revenue growth, these were overshadowed by major contract losses and uncertainties in Medicaid. The technical analysis shows a bearish trend, further impacting the overall score negatively. Strategic initiatives are needed to address these challenges and improve the company’s financial health.

To see Spark’s full report on MODV stock, click here.

ModivCare Appoints Daniel Silvers to Board

On April 25, 2025, Modivcare announced the appointment of Daniel Silvers to its board of directors, effective April 24, 2025, completing its plan to add three new independent directors. Mr. Silvers brings extensive experience in corporate finance and governance, which is expected to enhance Modivcare’s operational and financial strength. Concurrently, Craig Barbarosh, David Coulter, and Richard Kerley resigned from the board, with Coulter continuing as a board observer and Alexander Matina joining as a board observer.

Spark’s Take on MODV Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MODV is a Underperform.

ModivCare’s overall stock score reflects significant financial instability and weak technical indicators. The company is facing operational challenges and high leverage, which are major concerns. While strategic initiatives from the earnings call offer some hope, the overall risks from financial performance and valuation remain high.

To see Spark’s full report on MODV stock, click here.

ModivCare Adjusts Meeting Date for Financial Transparency

On February 28, 2025, Modivcare announced its plan to adjourn its special stockholders meeting from March 3 to March 13, 2025, to allow for the release of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results before the meeting. The record date for voting remains unchanged, and previously submitted proxies will still be valid unless revoked. This decision ensures transparency and informed decision-making for stakeholders, aligning financial disclosures with shareholder engagement.

ModivCare Board Member Garth Graham Resigns

On February 23, 2025, Garth Graham resigned from the Board of Directors of ModivCare Inc., effective February 28, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreement with the company. Leslie Norwalk, Chair of the Board, acknowledged Graham’s significant contributions, particularly in addressing social determinants of health, and expressed gratitude for his service.

ModivCare Appoints Erin Russell as New Director

On February 10, 2025, Modivcare Inc. appointed Erin Russell as a new independent director to its board, as part of a strategic move to enhance its board’s expertise and comply with credit agreement obligations. Her extensive experience in healthcare and financial sectors is expected to support the company’s growth and transformation. Concurrently, Neal Goldman resigned from the board on February 13, 2025, with his departure not linked to any company disagreements. These changes are part of Modivcare’s ongoing efforts to refresh its board and align with its strategic goals.