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Markel
(NYSE:MKL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$2,037.00
▲(12.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/08/26
MKL scores well primarily on financial strength (solid profitability, conservative leverage, and strong cash conversion) and an attractive earnings valuation (P/E ~10). The score is held back by weaker technical positioning (negative MACD and below key longer-term moving averages) and earnings-call risks including the $205M State National charge and softer adjusted operating income, partially offset by management’s confidence in double-digit ROE pace and ongoing buybacks.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage and resilience
Debt-to-equity of about 0.24, down from 0.33 in 2024, alongside equity of roughly $19.0B and 16.1% TTM ROE, indicates balance-sheet resilience. This supports underwriting capacity and financial flexibility through insurance and investment cycles.
Negative Factors
Cooling top-line growth
Recent revenue contraction indicates that the earlier growth pace has not been sustained, which can limit operating leverage and reduce the resources available for reinvestment. A prolonged slowdown would make future earnings growth more dependent on margins, investments, or capital actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage and resilience
Debt-to-equity of about 0.24, down from 0.33 in 2024, alongside equity of roughly $19.0B and 16.1% TTM ROE, indicates balance-sheet resilience. This supports underwriting capacity and financial flexibility through insurance and investment cycles.
Read all positive factors
Markel (MKL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.20B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)57.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth8.75%
CountryUS
Employees22,900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)182.57
Shares Outstanding12,389,958
10 Day Avg. Volume53,609
30 Day Avg. Volume57,696
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.84
Price to Book (P/B)1.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.65
P/FCF Ratio10.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,950.00Price Target Upside7.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)98.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.35B
Markel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Markel Corporation operates as a multifaceted financial conglomerate, engaging in the marketing and underwriting of specialized insurance offerings across numerous global regions. Its operational footprint spans the United States, Bermuda, the Uni...
How the Company Makes Money
Markel primarily makes money through a combination of (1) insurance underwriting results, (2) investment income and gains generated from investing insurance float and holding-company capital, and (3) earnings from its non-insurance operating busin...
Markel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive overall picture driven by strong GAAP operating income (helped by volatile net investment gains), higher net income per share, improved insurance combined ratios and international growth, meaningful share repurchases funded from earnings, and material operational progress (AI initiatives). The most significant negatives are the $205M State National reserve/charge that produced material losses in the Financial segment, a decline in adjusted operating income (ex-investments) versus prior year, softer underwriting GWP and margin pressure in Industrial. Management communicated confidence in capital strength and conservatism in reserving and emphasized long-term progress, suggesting the positives outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong GAAP Operating Income and Net Income
Operating income (including net investment gains) was $1.6B for Q2 2026 vs $1.1B in Q2 2025. Net income to common shareholders was $1.2B ($93 per diluted share) for the quarter vs $631M ($50 per diluted share) a year ago.
Negative Updates
State National Collateral Shortfall and $205M Reserve
Recognized a $205M reserve related to a collateral shortfall tied to a particular capacity provider in bankruptcy at State National (first substantial credit loss in State National's >40-year history). Management described the estimate as conservative.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GAAP Operating Income and Net Income
Operating income (including net investment gains) was $1.6B for Q2 2026 vs $1.1B in Q2 2025. Net income to common shareholders was $1.2B ($93 per diluted share) for the quarter vs $631M ($50 per diluted share) a year ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a multi‑year (5‑year) focus while saying the company is “on pace” for double‑digit return on equity for 2026 and highlighted numerous near‑term metrics: consolidated operating revenues of $4.0B in Q2 ($7.6B YTD), operating income of $1.6B in Q2, adjusted operating income of $436M in Q2 ($934M YTD), net income to common of $1.2B or $93 per diluted share in Q2 ($957M or $74 YTD), Markel Insurance underwriting GWP of $2.4B in Q2 (GWP down to $4.6B YTD but +10% ex‑Global Re/Hagerty), a combined ratio of 93% (93% H1), insurance adjusted operating income $376M in Q2 ($746M H1) and total insurance operating income of $1.2B for H1 (putting the company on pace for double‑digit ROE), net investment income of $256M in Q2 ($512M H1), public equities fair value $13.5B (up 10% QoQ; cumulative pretax unrealized gain $9.3B), a $205M collateral shortfall reserve at State National recognized in Q2, share repurchases of $237M in the quarter ($371M YTD, >$2B since 2022) reducing shares from 13.7M to 12.4M (~10%), and longer‑term five‑year averages of $2.5B annual operating income and $188.94 operating income per share (CAGRs ~15–16%); management also discussed reserve releases in workers’ comp and first‑party lines and said last quarter’s cited $700M underwriting profit target may be “a little lighter,” while favorable reserve development of up to ~5% (≈$800M) for 2026 was discussed but not definitively reconfirmed.Markel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.35B | 16.59B | 16.75B | 15.71B | 11.81B | 12.92B |
| Gross Profit | 10.80B | 11.51B | 9.27B | 8.08B | 3.41B | 5.89B |
| EBITDA | 3.28B | 3.29B | 4.18B | 3.16B | 353.94M | 3.65B |
| Net Income | 2.28B | 2.11B | 2.75B | 2.00B | -216.28M | 2.42B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.26B | 68.91B | 47.35B | 43.44B | 49.79B | 48.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.76B | 11.03B | 4.19B | 4.33B | 18.66B | 18.37B |
| Total Debt | 4.37B | 4.30B | 5.65B | 4.97B | 4.10B | 4.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.26B | 49.80B | 29.88B | 27.92B | 36.05B | 33.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.01B | 18.60B | 16.92B | 14.98B | 13.15B | 14.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.12B | 2.55B | 2.34B | 2.53B | 2.45B | 2.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.33B | 2.76B | 2.59B | 2.79B | 2.71B | 2.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.88B | -1.19B | -2.40B | -2.70B | -1.67B | -2.94B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -642.36M | -1.21B | -297.88M | -999.72M | -595.31M | 369.77M |
Markel Technical Analysis
Negative
1808.90
Price Trends
1871.16
Negative
1860.68
Negative
1949.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-19.45
Negative
40.85
Neutral
30.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MKL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1808.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1802.33, below the 50-day MA of 1871.16, and below the 200-day MA of 1949.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -19.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MKL.
Markel Risk Analysis
Markel disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Markel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Markel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $26.46B | 14.30 | 19.55% | 2.64% | 4.27% | 10.55% | |
79 Outperform | $8.41B | 14.57 | 29.06% | 0.26% | 15.82% | 28.42% | |
77 Outperform | $11.92B | 12.49 | 20.01% | 4.91% | -1.43% | 25.53% | |
77 Outperform | $26.35B | 8.02 | 20.89% | 2.12% | 19.55% | 84.05% | |
74 Outperform | $13.10B | 10.54 | 11.99% | 8.11% | 3.41% | 41.13% | |
73 Outperform | $22.20B | 9.79 | 12.39% | ― | 0.86% | 8.75% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
MKL
Markel
1,787.65
-140.19
-7.27%
AFG
American Financial Group
142.98
10.96
8.30%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
170.77
19.68
13.02%
CNA
CNA Financial
48.08
5.54
13.02%
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
69.95
-1.19
-1.67%
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group
360.75
-68.80
-16.02%
Markel Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Markel Announces Leadership Transition and Governance Enhancements
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Markel Group announced that longtime Chairman Steven A. Markel will retire from the chairmanship and not stand for re-election at the 2027 annual meeting, marking the end of more than five decades of service. Chief Executive ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.