Mercadolibre (MELI) Risk Analysis

The market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales of a large number of shares of our common stock in the market in the future or the perception that these sales could occur. These sales, or the possibility that these sales may occur, also might make it more difficult for us to sell equity securities in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate. In the future, we may issue securities in connection with investments and acquisitions. The amount of our common stock issued in connection with an investment or acquisition could constitute a material portion of our then outstanding common stock.

From time to time, we engage in share repurchases of our common stock in accordance with authorizations from our board of directors. Our repurchase programs may not require us to repurchase any specific required dollar amount or number of shares. Further, our repurchases could affect our share trading prices, increase their volatility, reduce our cash reserves and may be suspended or terminated at any time, which may result in a decrease in the trading of our stock. As of December 31, 2024, we did not have an active share repurchase program.

We have used a portion of our cash reserve to purchase digital assets or certain other alternative reserve assets and we may continue acquiring and holding digital assets from time to time in the future. The prices of digital assets have been, and may continue to be, highly volatile, including as a result of various associated risks and uncertainties. For example, the prevalence of such assets is a relatively recent development, and their long-term adoption by investors, consumers and businesses is unpredictable. Moreover, these assets rely on technology for their creation, existence and transactional validation, and their decentralization may subject their integrity to the threat of malicious attacks and technological obsolescence. The status of such assets for a variety of regulatory purposes is unclear and may change in the future. As digital assets, including Bitcoin, have grown in popularity and market size, there has been an increasing focus on the extent to which such digital assets can be used to launder the proceeds of illegal activities or fund criminal or terrorist activities and/or entities subject to sanctions regimes. If we are found to have engaged in transactions involving Bitcoin or other digital assets with persons that have used such digital assets to launder money or persons subject to sanctions, we may be subject to regulatory obligations, proceedings or other actions, and our further transactions or dealings in Bitcoin or other digital assets may be restricted or prohibited. The rapidly evolving regulatory landscape with respect to digital assets may subject us to additional costs, such as the implementation of additional and potentially costly controls or other actions. As intangible assets without centralized issuers or governing bodies, digital assets have been, and may in the future be, subject to security breaches, cyberattacks or other malicious activities, as well as human errors or computer malfunctions, that may result in operational problems or the loss, compromise or destruction of, or our inability to access, cryptographic private keys needed to access such assets, which may be irreversible and could adversely affect the value of our digital assets and an investment in our Company. While we have taken reasonable measures to secure any digital assets, if such threats are realized or the measures or controls we implement to secure our digital assets fail, it could result in a partial or total misappropriation or loss of our digital assets, and our financial condition and operating results may be adversely affected.

As a result of the emerging nature and related volatility of the markets and economies in the countries in which we operate, the increased variety of services and products that we offer and the rapidly evolving nature of our business, it is particularly difficult for us to forecast our revenues or earnings accurately. Our current and future expense levels are based largely on our investment plans and estimates of future revenues and are, to a large extent, fixed. We may not be able to adjust spending in a timely manner to compensate for any unexpected revenue shortfall. Accordingly, any significant shortfall in revenues relative to our planned expenditures may have an immediate adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Our lending solution is offered to certain merchants and consumers, and the financial success of this product depends on the effective management of the credit-related risk. We assess the credit risk of merchants and/or consumers seeking a loan based on an internally-developed risk model which, among other factors, may not accurately predict their creditworthiness due to inaccurate assumptions about the particular merchant and/or consumer or the economic environment or limited product history, among other aspects. The accuracy of the risk model and our ability to manage credit risk may also be affected by legal or regulatory changes (e.g., bankruptcy laws and minimum payment regulations), competitors’ actions, changes in consumer behavior, funding resources, changes in the economic environment, changes in regulation on interest rates and other factors. A decline in economic, political, market, health and social conditions could impact our users as well, and their decisions could reduce the number of cards, accounts, and credit lines of their account holders, which ultimately impact our revenues. Any events or conditions that impair the functioning of the financial markets, tighten the credit market, or lead to a downgrade of our current credit rating could increase our future borrowing costs and impair our ability to access the capital and credit markets on favorable terms, which could affect our liquidity and capital resources, or significantly increase our cost of capital. Similar to other businesses with significant exposure to credit losses, we face the risk that our lending users may default on their payment obligations, making the receivables uncollectible and creating the risk of potential charge-offs, which could negatively impact our liquidity. Any of these events could adversely affect our business and results of operation. The funding and growth of our lending business are directly related to interest rates; a rise in interest rates may negatively affect our lending business and results of operations.

Mercado Pago pays significant transaction fees when customers fund payment transactions using certain debit and credit cards or through unaffiliated entities, nominal fees when customers fund payment transactions from their bank accounts, and no fees when customers fund payment transactions from an existing Mercado Pago account balance. Mercado Pago’s financial success remains highly sensitive to changes in the rate at which its senders fund payments using credit cards. Customers may prefer to pay using credit cards rather than bank account transfers for a number of reasons, including the ability to pay in installments, dispute and reverse charges, earn frequent flyer miles or other incentives offered by credit cards, defer payment, or due to a reluctance to provide bank account information to us. Certain costs and transactions fees that Mercado Pago pays in connection with certain payment methods are fixed regardless of the ticket price. Currently, Mercado Pago, if applicable, charges a fee calculated as a percentage of each transaction. If Mercado Pago receives a larger percentage of low ticket transactions, our profit margin may erode, or we may need to raise prices, which, in turn, may affect the volume of transactions.

We offer users the ability to pay for goods purchased in installments using Mercado Pago in some of the countries where we operate. In 2024 and 2023, installment payments represented 20.3% and 21.3%, respectively, of Mercado Pago’s total payment volume. To subsidize the cost of the installment payment feature, from time to time we pay interest to discount credit card receivables, securitize credit card receivables through trusts or finance Mercado Pago business through financial debt. In all of these cases, if interest rates increase, we may have to raise the installment fees we charge to users that would likely have a negative effect on Mercado Pago’s total payment volume.

If the condition of the financial services industry deteriorates or becomes weakened for an extended period of time, any of the following factors could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results, and financial condition: ¦Disruptions to the capital markets or the banking system may materially adversely affect the value of investments or bank deposits we currently consider safe, liquid or that provide a reasonable return, and we may be unable to find suitable alternative investments, which could result in lower interest income or longer investment horizons; ¦We may be required to increase the installment and financing fees we charge to customers for purchases made in installments or cease offering installment purchases altogether, each of which may result in a lower volume of transactions completed; We may be unable to access financing in the credit and capital markets at reasonable rates. Due to the nature of our Mercado Pago and Mercado Libre Marketplace businesses, we generate high credit card receivables and consumer and merchant loans that from time to time we sell to financial institutions, and accordingly, lack of access to credit or significant changes to the terms of any existing credit, or bank liquidations could cause us to experience severe difficulties; and ¦The failure of financial institution counterparties to honor their obligations to us under credit instruments could jeopardize our ability to rely on and benefit from those instruments. Our ability to replace those instruments on the same or similar terms may be limited under difficult market conditions.

Mercado Pago relies on banks, investment funds or payment processors to process the funding of Mercado Pago transactions and Mercado Libre Marketplace collections, and we must pay a fee for this service. From time to time, card associations may increase the interchange fees they charge for each transaction using one of their cards. Card processors have the right to pass on to us any increases in interchange fees or their own fees for processing. These increased fees increase the operating costs of Mercado Pago, reduce our profit margins from Mercado Pago operations and, to a lesser degree, affect the operating margins of the Mercado Libre Marketplace. We also offer Mercado Pago prepaid cards in Brazil and Mercado Pago credit cards in Brazil and Mexico, all under the VISA brand, as well as an electronic payment funds card (similar to a debit card) in Mexico and Argentina issued under the MasterCard brand. If any of these companies were to be unwilling or unable to provide these services to us, or if they are willing to provide these services but at less favorable terms, our business and results of operations would be adversely affected. We are also subject to, or required by processors to comply with, card association operating rules. The card associations and their member banks set and interpret the card rules. Some of those member banks compete with Mercado Pago. Card companies could adopt new operating rules or re-interpret existing rules that we or Mercado Pago’s processors may find difficult or even impossible to follow. As a result, we could lose our ability to provide Mercado Pago customers the option of using debit, prepaid or credit cards to fund their payments and MercadoLibre users the option to pay their fees using a debit, prepaid or credit card, which could be materially adverse to our business. We could lose the right to accept credit cards or pay fines if card processors determine that users are using Mercado Pago to engage in illegal or “high risk” activities or if users generate a large amount of chargebacks. Accordingly, we are continually working to prevent “high risk” merchants from using Mercado Pago. Additionally, we may be unable to access financing in the credit and capital markets at reasonable rates to fund our Mercado Pago operations, and for that reason, our profitability and total payments volume could materially decline.

Our ability to manage and account accurately for Mercado Pago users’ funds requires a high level of internal controls. As Mercado Pago continues to grow, we must strengthen our internal controls accordingly. Mercado Pago’s success requires significant consumer confidence in our ability to handle large and growing transaction volumes and amounts of customer funds. Any failure to maintain necessary controls or to properly manage customer funds could severely reduce customer use of Mercado Pago, and we could be found to be in violation of applicable laws and regulations, be subject to fines or other penalties or forced to cease providing this service. Mercado Pago offers its users in Argentina, Mexico and Chile the option to use the balances stored on their Mercado Pago digital accounts to invest in low-risk investment funds (money market fund equivalents). For the purposes of offering such intermediated investment functionality, Mercado Pago has entered into diverse contractual relationships with licensed third party brokers and fund managers who serve as the managers of the investment funds and the facilitators of all associated investment services, including but not limited to the execution of investment orders. The scope of Mercado Pago’s involvement in these services is strictly limited to (i) the processing of charges and payments from users that use their balances held with Mercado Pago to invest, and (ii) sending the appropriate instructions to our investment partners. The third party providers have complete decision-making authority over the funds and their investment strategies. In Brazil, we have also partnered with a third party with a focus on the financial inclusion of users, to launch three investment fund options, allowing users to diversify their investment portfolio in an accessible way and with options for quick withdrawal. A disruption in our relationships with such third party providers or any of the services they provide to our users could adversely affect our customers’ confidence in our business. In addition, the value of the investments made by our users in the respective investment funds may fluctuate over time as a result of factors not in our control, such as market conditions and investment decisions made by our third party providers. If there is a disruption in the services provided by our third party providers or the investments made by our users otherwise decrease in value, our users may try to pursue claims or legal actions against us, which could affect our reputation and results of operations.

The terms of our senior unsecured notes issued in January 2021 and certain collateralized debt under securitization transactions contain, and any debt instruments we enter in the future may contain, covenants that restrict or could restrict, among other things, our business and operations. Failure to pay amounts due under a debt instrument or a breach of any of its covenants may result in the acceleration of the indebtedness (subject in certain cases to a grace or cure period). Moreover, any such acceleration and required repayment of, or default in respect of, any of our indebtedness could, in turn, constitute an event of default under other debt instruments, thereby resulting in the acceleration and required repayment of other indebtedness we may have. Any of these events could materially adversely affect our liquidity and financial condition. In addition, changes by any rating agency to our outlook or credit rating could negatively affect the value of both our debt and equity securities and increase our borrowing costs. If our credit ratings are downgraded or other negative action by rating agencies is taken, the interest rates payable by us under our indebtedness may increase. In addition, any downgrades to our credit ratings may affect our ability to obtain additional financing in the future and the terms of any such financing. Any of these factors could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.

We may need to raise additional funds in order to fund more rapid expansion (organically or through strategic acquisitions), to develop new or enhanced services or products, to respond to competitive pressures or to acquire complementary products, businesses or technologies. If we raise additional funds through the issuance of equity or convertible debt securities, the percentage ownership of our stockholders will be reduced, stockholders may experience additional dilution and the securities that we issue may have rights, preferences and privileges senior to those of our common stock. Additional financing may not be available on terms favorable to us or at all. If adequate funds are not available or are not available on acceptable terms, we may not be able to fund our expansion, take advantage of unanticipated acquisition opportunities, develop or enhance services or products or respond to competitive pressures. These inabilities could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Rapid, significant and disruptive technological changes impact the industries in which we operate. Moreover, the effects of technological changes on our business are uncertain. Our success depends on our ability to develop and incorporate new technologies and adapt to technological changes and evolving industry standards. We are also increasingly leveraging AI technologies, including generative AI, in our products and services and are making investments to expand our use of generative AI capabilities. If we are unable to do so in a timely or cost-effective manner, our business could be harmed. We plan to continue to expand our operations by expanding our services internationally and developing and promoting new and complementary services. We may have limited or no experience in our newer market segments, which can present new and difficult technology challenges. We may not succeed at expanding our operations in a cost-effective or timely manner, and our expansion efforts may not have the same or greater overall market acceptance as our current services, which could damage our reputation and diminish the value of our brands. Similarly, a lack of market acceptance of these services or our inability to generate satisfactory revenues from any expanded services to offset their cost could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We must constantly add new hardware, update software, enhance and improve our billing and transaction systems, and add and train new engineering and other personnel to accommodate the increased use of our website, apps and the new products and features we regularly introduce. This upgrade process is expensive, the increasing complexity and enhancement of our website results in higher costs, and ultimately may not be successful. Our revenues depend on prompt and accurate billing processes. Failure to upgrade our technology, transaction-processing capabilities, features, transaction processing systems, security infrastructure, or network infrastructure to accommodate increased traffic or transaction volume, or the increased complexity of our website could materially harm our business and our ability to collect revenue. In addition, our use of AI involves significant technical complexity and requires specialized expertise. Any disruption or failure in our AI systems or infrastructure, or those of our third-party providers, could result in system failures, delays or errors in our operations, which could harm our business and financial results. We may also need to enter into relationships with various strategic partners, websites, other online service providers, shipping companies and other third parties necessary to our business. The increased complexity of managing multiple commercial relationships could lead to execution problems that can affect current and future revenues and operating margins, as well as our reputation. The expansion of our Mercado Pago and Mercado Envios businesses into new countries may also require a close commercial relationship with one or more local banks or other intermediaries, which may prevent, delay or limit the introductions of our services in such countries. If our users have negative experiences with, or view unfavorably, any of the companies or partners with whom we have relationships, it could cause them to stop using our products and services and negatively impact our results of operations.