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Medpace Holdings
(NASDAQ:MEDP)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$752.00
▲(22.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, strong free cash flow, low leverage) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The main constraints are a premium valuation (P/E ~36) and earnings-call risks around cancellations, delayed 2027 guidance, and incremental 2027 cost headwinds despite raised 2026 outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong profitable growth
MEDP has substantially expanded revenue while maintaining strong operating and net margins, indicating that scale is translating into durable earnings power. Continued profitability provides resources to support investment, absorb operating variability, and reinforce the company’s position in outsourced clinical development.
Negative Factors
Clinical-program cancellations
Cancellations can reduce backlog and interrupt revenue conversion when client programs fail, encounter safety signals, or are reprioritized. Management identifies cancellations as a major factor behind the historical slowdown in growth, so persistent levels could pressure visibility and utilization over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitable growth
MEDP has substantially expanded revenue while maintaining strong operating and net margins, indicating that scale is translating into durable earnings power. Continued profitability provides resources to support investment, absorb operating variability, and reinforce the company’s position in outsourced clinical development.
Read all positive factors
Medpace Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMedpace Holdings (MEDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)317.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.9
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth20.35%
EPS Growth25.24%
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.36
Shares Outstanding27,971,685
10 Day Avg. Volume437,507
30 Day Avg. Volume317,225
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.82
Price to Book (P/B)35.29
Price to Sales (P/S)6.40
P/FCF Ratio23.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$670.22Price Target Upside9.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)18.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.85B
Medpace Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medpace Holdings, Inc., founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992, functions as a contract research organization (CRO) delivering clinical development and research services. The company assists pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device clients ...
How the Company Makes Money
Medpace makes money by contracting with biopharmaceutical and medical device companies to run and support clinical trials and other clinical development activities on an outsourced basis. Revenue is generated primarily from fees for services deliv...
Medpace Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. Medpace reported strong revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS, bookings, backlog, cash flow, pipeline activity, win rates, utilization, and employee retention, and raised its 2026 outlook. The main challenges were elevated-but-manageable cancellations, uncertainty that delayed 2027 guidance, quarter-to-quarter margin volatility, lower current metabolic awards, and approximately $20 million of operating costs from the Cincinnati expansion in 2027.Positive Updates
Record Net New Business Awards and Strong Win Rate
Management reported a strong business environment in the third quarter, with high-quality RFP activity, strong initial award notifications, and a good win rate. Net new business awards reached an all-time high, while awards over the last 12 months increased 23.9% year over year.
Negative Updates
Cancellations Were Toward the Higher End of the Expected Range
Backlog cancellations in the third quarter were toward the higher end of the range Medpace expects, although management described them as manageable and said they were not outside the expected range.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net New Business Awards and Strong Win Rate
Management reported a strong business environment in the third quarter, with high-quality RFP activity, strong initial award notifications, and a good win rate. Net new business awards reached an all-time high, while awards over the last 12 months increased 23.9% year over year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, total revenue is now expected in the range of $2.835 billion to $2.855 billion, representing growth of 12% to 12.8% over 2025 total revenue of $2.53 billion; EBITDA is now expected in the range of $638 million to $652 million, representing growth of 14.4% to 16.9% compared to EBITDA of $557.7 million in 2025; net income is forecast in the range of $514 million to $524 million; the guidance assumes a full year 2026 effective tax rate of 19% to 19.5%, interest income of $22.9 million and 28.6 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, with no additional share repurchases assumed; earnings per diluted share is now expected in the range of $17.97 to $18.32, based on foreign exchange rates as of September 30, 2026. Pass-through mix is expected to be “somewhere around where we finished the third quarter,” or “kind of 40% to 40.5% based on our current model,” while 2027 guidance will be provided at the time of Q4 reporting in February, with “no large disconnect” between analyst consensus estimates and current modeling, including about $20 million of operating costs from the Cincinnati expansion in 2027.Medpace Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.84B | 2.53B | 2.11B | 1.89B | 1.46B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 827.16M | 760.62M | 656.30M | 524.50M | 432.44M | 328.15M |
| EBITDA | 643.55M | 570.50M | 505.17M | 362.50M | 308.11M | 223.08M |
| Net Income | 517.83M | 451.12M | 404.39M | 282.81M | 245.37M | 181.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.30B | 1.98B | 2.10B | 1.66B | 1.35B | 1.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 705.32M | 497.05M | 669.44M | 245.45M | 28.27M | 461.30M |
| Total Debt | 146.04M | 136.85M | 149.52M | 164.49M | 208.14M | 147.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.72B | 1.52B | 1.28B | 1.10B | 966.11M | 707.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | 584.94M | 459.07M | 825.54M | 558.95M | 386.39M | 952.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 667.63M | 681.87M | 572.27M | 396.73M | 351.17M | 235.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 723.05M | 713.22M | 608.82M | 433.37M | 388.05M | 263.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -55.24M | -31.14M | -28.31M | -34.63M | -38.74M | -31.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -246.44M | -860.39M | -154.01M | -182.64M | -775.77M | -44.45M |
Medpace Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
614.06
Price Trends
618.33
Positive
580.49
Positive
529.20
Positive
Market Momentum
19.09
Negative
64.83
Neutral
87.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MEDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 614.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 634.20, below the 50-day MA of 618.33, and above the 200-day MA of 529.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 19.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MEDP.
Medpace Holdings Risk Analysis
Medpace Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medpace Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medpace Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $18.95B | 36.90 | 99.76% | ― | 20.35% | 25.24% | |
74 Outperform | $45.33B | 33.06 | 21.82% | ― | 8.88% | 13.11% | |
73 Outperform | $27.83B | 24.84 | 15.21% | 1.34% | 9.13% | 17.93% | |
71 Outperform | $29.86B | 30.00 | 11.54% | 0.78% | 6.02% | 19.63% | |
69 Neutral | $16.63B | 36.83 | 4.85% | ― | 0.67% | 43.70% | |
57 Neutral | $17.95B | -77.71 | -7.72% | ― | -0.74% | -268.79% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Medpace Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Medpace Holdings Announces Expanded $1 Billion Buyback Program
Positive
Oct 21, 2026
Medpace Holdings reported solid financial performance for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, with revenue rising 8.5% year on year to $716.0 million and backlog increasing 5.6% to $3.17 billion, supported by $873.4 million in net new busi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.