Mapletree Logistics (MAPGF) AI Stock Analysis

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Positive Factors

Attractive Valuation

At current price, MLT remains attractive with a yield in excess of 6.0% and a P/B of 0.95x.

CEO Confidence

CEO Jean Kam acquired shares in the REIT in a day of weakness in a vote of confidence.

E-commerce Exposure

Mapletree Logistics Trust has a unique exposure to Asian E-commerce with a focus on domestic demand, minimizing direct impact from the US-China trade war.

Negative Factors

China Market Weakness

China, which contributes to 20% of revenues, continues to remain weak and is a key market to watch.

Higher Borrowing Costs

Higher borrowing costs could exert downward pressure on distributions.

Trade War Impact

Management cautioned that a protracted trade war could affect demand for warehouse space, thereby reducing occupancy and rental rates.

Mapletree Logistics (MAPGF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.38B

Dividend Yield6.43%

Average Volume (3M)850.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.4

Beta (1Y)0.14

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees345

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength60

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)>-0.01

Shares Outstanding5,075,149,000

10 Day Avg. Volume2,222

30 Day Avg. Volume850

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.80

Price to Book (P/B)0.82

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio10.77

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$1.03

Price Target Upside9.57% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Mapletree Logistics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMLT, the first Asia-focused logistics REIT in Singapore, was listed on the SGX-ST main board on 28 July 2005. MLT's principal strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets. As at 31 December 2020, it has a portfolio of 156 logistics assets in Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, China, Australia, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam with assets under management of S$10.2 billion. MLT is managed by Mapletree Logistics Trust Management Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

Mapletree Logistics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 6.82%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call highlighted the stability and positive rental reversions in the portfolio, particularly in developed markets, and progress in ESG initiatives. However, these positives were overshadowed by significant declines in DPU, higher borrowing costs, and challenges in China, leading to overall negative financial results.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Stable Portfolio Performance

70% of MLT's portfolio by AUM and revenue continues to be contributed by developed markets (Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Australia) with more than 900 customers, providing stability in demand.

Positive Rental Reversions

Rental reversion improved from 3Q to 5.1% in 4Q, with a positive 6.9% excluding China, indicating strong performance in other markets.

ESG Progress

Increased solar capacity to 71-megawatt peak, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2030, and achieved neutralized Scope 2 carbon emissions in China and Hong Kong markets.

Successful Divestments

Completed divestments of 14 properties totaling about SGD 200 million, aiding in financial flexibility and strategic portfolio management.

Negative Updates

Significant Decline in DPU

Overall DPU decreased by 11.6% year-on-year due to lower contributions from China, higher borrowing costs, and FX impact.

Weakening Performance in China

China's lower rental and occupancy led to a net fair value loss of about SGD 62 million on investment properties.

Higher Borrowing Costs

Interest costs increased due to incremental borrowings and the replacement of hedges that rolled off, affecting the overall financial performance.

Slight Decline in Gross Revenue

Gross revenue was 0.9% lower year-on-year, primarily due to lower contribution from China and absence of revenue from divested properties.

Increased Leverage

Aggregate leverage increased to 40.7% from 40.3% last quarter, mainly due to valuation losses and FX translation impacts.

Company Guidance

In the recent call, MLT's management provided guidance on several key metrics for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending March 2025. Distributable income (DI) was reported to be 9.1% lower year-on-year, translating to a distribution per unit (DPU) of SGD 0.08053, down from SGD 0.09003 the previous year. Gross revenue decreased by 0.9%, primarily due to reduced contributions from China and divested properties, as well as currency weaknesses. Net property income (NPI) also saw a decline of 1.5%. The aggregate leverage ratio slightly increased to 40.7% from 40.3% in the last quarter, attributed to valuation and foreign exchange (FX) losses. Approximately 81% of MLT's debt is hedged at fixed rates, with a debt maturity of 3.8 years. The company has hedged 75% of its distributable income into Singapore dollars for the upcoming 12 months. During the quarter, MLT completed three Malaysian divestments and announced the divestment of three additional projects. Furthermore, the company highlighted that its interest rate is stable at 2.7%, with an interest coverage ratio of 2.9 times.

Mapletree Logistics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mapletree Logistics demonstrates financial stability with strong gross margins and a solid asset base. However, declining net income and revenue growth pose challenges for future profitability. The balance sheet remains healthy with manageable leverage, yet the company should focus on improving earnings to enhance shareholder returns. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting operational needs and financial obligations.

Income Statement

Positive

Mapletree Logistics shows stable gross profit margins, maintaining above 70% in recent years, and net profit margins around 29% in the latest annual report. However, there is a decline in net income from the previous year, indicating potential challenges in maintaining earnings growth. The revenue growth rate is fluctuating, with a slight decline in the latest period, which could point to market saturation or increased competition.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio remains stable, with a slight increase in total debt, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity has decreased, reflecting pressure on profitability. The equity ratio is healthy, showcasing a strong asset base relative to liabilities, supporting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow is strong, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow remains positive, but the growth rate has slowed, suggesting potential challenges in improving cash reserves. The cash flow statements reflect a stable financial position with adequate liquidity.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
714.78M	733.89M	735.26M	680.02M	567.35M
	Gross Profit
520.71M	543.78M	538.09M	504.61M	435.42M
	EBIT
520.57M	541.95M	571.75M	519.05M	431.73M
	EBITDA
429.02M	536.63M	533.21M	502.93M	434.72M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
207.77M	327.48M	566.58M	782.44M	462.73M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
299.01M	304.82M	302.50M	338.62M	280.76M
	Total Assets
13.89B	13.81B	13.42B	13.69B	11.20B
	Total Debt
5.67B	5.40B	5.55B	5.64B	4.77B
	Net Debt
5.37B	5.10B	5.25B	5.30B	4.49B
	Total Liabilities
6.65B	6.33B	6.48B	6.60B	5.52B
	Stockholders Equity
6.64B	7.47B	6.93B	7.07B	5.68B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
536.03M	573.49M	467.26M	390.11M	352.23M
	Operating Cash Flow
536.03M	573.49M	470.63M	385.83M	352.41M
	Investing Cash Flow
-243.69M	-844.25M	-235.41M	-1.61B	-1.27B
	Financing Cash Flow
-286.74M	280.62M	-245.99M	1.28B	1.05B

Mapletree Logistics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MAPGF		$4.38B	34.38	2.74%	6.43%	―	―
O5RU	72 Outperform	S$1.07B	32.51	3.17%	7.33%	5.21%	-25.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.83B	10.92	0.41%	8438.90%	5.75%	-21.03%
CGIUF		$1.40B	―	-6.38%	9.43%	―	―
FSRPF		$2.53B	12.81	2.80%	5.24%	―	―
FRLOF		$2.37B	23.61	3.21%	6.03%	―	―
DHLU	69 Neutral	S$395.18M	11.60	6.78%	8.48%	-7.68%	-20.20%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MAPGF

Mapletree Logistics

0.94

0.02

2.17%

SG:O5RU

AIMS APAC REIT

1.29

0.11

9.32%

CGIUF

ESR-REIT

1.68

-0.31

-15.58%

FSRPF

Frasers Property

0.64

0.08

14.29%

FRLOF

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust

0.63

-0.05

-7.35%

SG:DHLU

Daiwa House Logistics Trust

0.56

0.03

5.66%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.