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Stride
(NYSE:LRN)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(7.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/10/26
Overall score reflects strong financial quality (especially cash flow strength and improving leverage/returns) as the biggest positive. Earnings-call commentary adds support but includes clear near-term risks (margin pressure, general education softness, mixed enrollment indicators, and leadership transition concerns). Technicals are mixed with negative MACD and price below longer-term averages, while valuation is helped by a relatively low P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Stride’s strong operating and free cash flow indicates that reported earnings are converting into cash at a high rate. This supports continued investment in platforms and curriculum, provides resilience through enrollment variability, and gives management flexibility for capital allocation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
General education contraction
The decline in general education revenue and enrollment shows that a major business segment is currently contracting rather than contributing to growth. If this weakness persists, it could offset career learning gains, limit consolidated expansion, and make future results more dependent on a narrower set of programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Stride’s strong operating and free cash flow indicates that reported earnings are converting into cash at a high rate. This supports continued investment in platforms and curriculum, provides resilience through enrollment variability, and gives management flexibility for capital allocation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Stride (LRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)687.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth4.69%
EPS Growth18.43%
CountryUS
Employees9,200
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.92
Shares Outstanding41,559,845
10 Day Avg. Volume646,708
30 Day Avg. Volume687,644
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio10.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.50Price Target Upside25.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.61B
Stride Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Stride, Inc. is an ed-tech company that specializes in providing a variety of online learning tools and services. The firm delivers personalized educational experiences to students, primarily from kindergarten through twelfth grade (K-12), across ...
How the Company Makes Money
Stride primarily makes money by delivering education services and learning products through a mix of public-sector (managed public school) and consumer/enterprise channels. A major revenue stream comes from its managed public school programs, wher...
Stride Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of encouraging operational and financial progress (revenue and enrollment growth, strong career learning performance, improved EBITDA and EPS, healthy cash balance and active buybacks, and strategic technology investments) alongside notable near-term challenges (gross margin compression, declines in general education revenue/enrollments, modest free cash flow decline, a district contract non-renewal, and investor concern around a sudden CEO transition). Early enrollment indicators are mixed but include improving conversion and re-registration metrics; management expects FY27 margins to be flattish but acknowledges tougher year-over-year comparisons and continued investments that will weigh on near-term margins.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Scale
Fiscal 2026 revenue of $2.518 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year, reflecting continued demand and scale across programs.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin fell to 37.8%, down 140 basis points year-over-year, driven by investments and ongoing platform-related expenses.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Scale
Fiscal 2026 revenue of $2.518 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year, reflecting continued demand and scale across programs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it will provide formal FY27 guidance in October but gave directional expectations based on FY26 results: FY26 revenue was $2.518B (+4.7%) with adjusted operating income $498.4M (~+7%), adjusted EBITDA $617.6M (+8.2%), adjusted EPS $8.33, total students ~244k (+4.2%), career learning revenue $1.04B (+19%) with 110k enrollments (+14%), general education revenue $1.42B (‑2%) with 134k enrollments (‑2.5%), revenue per enrollment $9.91k (vs $9.68k), gross margin 37.8% (‑140 bps), SG&A $499.8M (‑4.7%), stock‑based comp $40.3M, effective tax rate 23.3%, CapEx $78.8M, free cash flow $355M, cash and marketable securities ~$1.034B, and ~$189M of shares repurchased in FY26 with ~$311M remaining through 10/31/2027; for FY27 they expect revenue per enrollment to be relatively flat to slightly up, gross margins flattish, CapEx and SG&A as a percent of revenue relatively flat, a modest uptick in stock‑based compensation and tax rate, and cautioned that count‑date growth will face a tougher comparison even as applications are slightly behind last year while conversion and re‑registration trends are improved and in‑year enrollment growth is expected.Stride Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.41B | 2.04B | 1.84B | 1.69B |
| Gross Profit | 950.60M | 943.92M | 763.60M | 647.07M | 596.48M |
| EBITDA | 579.50M | 508.39M | 386.18M | 291.31M | 253.26M |
| Net Income | 338.19M | 287.94M | 204.18M | 126.87M | 107.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.44B | 2.29B | 1.92B | 1.76B | 1.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 958.00M | 985.27M | 692.29M | 522.73M | 389.40M |
| Total Debt | 545.98M | 549.76M | 528.21M | 543.81M | 565.67M |
| Total Liabilities | 803.22M | 814.34M | 744.44M | 813.37M | 830.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.48B | 1.18B | 947.30M | 812.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 354.97M | 372.81M | 217.21M | 136.60M | 139.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 433.81M | 432.82M | 278.80M | 203.15M | 206.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -179.83M | -88.00M | -139.87M | -118.24M | -110.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -281.98M | -62.94M | -49.12M | -63.50M | -93.31M |
Stride Technical Analysis
Positive
85.59
Price Trends
81.89
Positive
85.85
Negative
85.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
59.87
Neutral
94.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 85.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.85, above the 50-day MA of 81.89, and above the 200-day MA of 85.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LRN.
Stride Risk Analysis
Stride disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stride reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stride Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.82B | 13.33 | 8.19% | 2.93% | 3.53% | 23.97% | |
76 Outperform | $3.51B | 10.66 | 21.31% | ― | 4.69% | 18.43% | |
75 Outperform | $2.11B | 12.09 | 17.70% | 1.84% | 11.68% | 18.98% | |
65 Neutral | $2.60B | 28.89 | 12.02% | ― | 0.14% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.34B | -7.12 | -17.74% | ― | 22.69% | -112.56% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LRN
Stride
84.43
-61.97
-42.33%
PRDO
Perdoceo Education
33.73
-0.49
-1.43%
STRA
Strategic Education
81.95
5.06
6.58%
COUR
Coursera
5.07
-5.14
-50.34%
MH
McGraw Hill, Inc.
13.58
0.98
7.78%
Stride Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Stride Enhances Governance and Capital Allocation Strategy
Positive
Oct 9, 2026
On October 8–9, 2026, Stride entered a cooperation agreement with major shareholder Fivespan Partners and moved to refresh its board, appointing investor Dylan Haggart as a director and education-technology veteran Steven Guttentag as a boar...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Stride posts strong fiscal 2026 results, boosts buybacks
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Stride reported fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results for the period ended June 30, 2026, showing solid annual growth despite weaker fourth-quarter revenue. Full-year revenue rose 4.7% to $2.52 billion, while income f...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Stride appoints new CEO amid strong preliminary results
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Stride executed a major leadership transition, with long-serving CEO and board chair James J. Rhyu stepping down without dispute over company matters, and independent director Robert E. Knowling appointed chief executive officer....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.