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Lemonade
(NYSE:LMND)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$55.00
▼(-11.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
LMND scores as a mid-range risk/reward setup: improving fundamentals (stronger revenue trajectory, sharply better gross margin, and recently positive operating/free cash flow) are the main support, reinforced by a generally positive earnings-call outlook and raised growth targets. These positives are held back by still-negative profitability/ROE and a weak technical picture with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation remains difficult to anchor due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Accelerating premium and customer growth
Rapid growth in premiums, customers and premium per customer indicates expanding adoption of Lemonade’s digital insurance platform. Sustained IFP acceleration across 11 consecutive quarters could improve scale economics and support broader product distribution over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP losses
Lemonade remains dependent on continued scaling and operating improvements to reach GAAP profitability. Ongoing losses can consume capital and weaken returns on equity, making the improving margin trajectory less durable if growth slows or claims and operating costs rise.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating premium and customer growth
Rapid growth in premiums, customers and premium per customer indicates expanding adoption of Lemonade’s digital insurance platform. Sustained IFP acceleration across 11 consecutive quarters could improve scale economics and support broader product distribution over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lemonade Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where revenue comes from across Lemonade’s lines (renters, homeowners, pet, life, reinsurance, and other services), showing which products drive growth, which are most profitable, and how well new offerings are gaining traction.
Breaks down where revenue comes from across Lemonade’s lines (renters, homeowners, pet, life, reinsurance, and other services), showing which products drive growth, which are most profitable, and how well new offerings are gaining traction.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLemonade (LMND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth76.73%
EPS Growth35.36%
CountryUS
Employees1,282
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.87
Shares Outstanding77,396,614
10 Day Avg. Volume1,093,853
30 Day Avg. Volume1,330,361
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)9.58
Price to Sales (P/S)6.93
P/FCF Ratio-197.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$60.40Price Target Upside-2.56% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.22B
Lemonade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lemonade, Inc. functions as an insurance provider operating across the United States and Europe, offering a diverse array of policies. Their core coverage options encompass protection against stolen or damaged personal property, as well as persona...
How the Company Makes Money
Lemonade makes money primarily by collecting insurance premiums from policyholders and retaining a portion of those premiums after paying claims, reinsurance costs, and operating expenses. Its core revenue model is built around:
1) Insurance prem...
Lemonade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: strong top-line acceleration (revenue +79%, IFP +32.5%), record gross profit, meaningful improvements in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, industry-leading claims efficiency (LAE 5%), and positive operating momentum across car and product expansion. Key near-term challenges include elevated operating expenses, ongoing GAAP net losses, seasonal negative operating cash flow, and pressure in pet insurance from vet cost inflation. Management provided reassuring context on capital (reinsurance and financing improvements), sustainable unit economics (LTV:CAC ~3x), and guidance that targets adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4, supporting an overall constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Premium Growth
Revenue grew 79% year-over-year to $294 million; in-force premium (IFP) reached $1.43 billion, up ~32.5% YoY. Customer count grew 23% and premium per customer increased 8%.
Negative Updates
Net Loss and GAAP Profitability
Net loss was $43 million in Q2 (loss per share $0.56) versus $44 million a year ago; excluding a prior-year one-time tax refund benefit, the net loss represented a 22% YoY improvement, but GAAP profitability has not yet been achieved.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Premium Growth
Revenue grew 79% year-over-year to $294 million; in-force premium (IFP) reached $1.43 billion, up ~32.5% YoY. Customer count grew 23% and premium per customer increased 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lemonade reiterated its IFP and EBITDA guidance while raising targets for gross earned premium and revenue, guiding to roughly 33% IFP growth (Q3 and full‑year 2026), about 9% revenue growth in Q3 and ~65% revenue growth for full‑year 2026, and maintaining a positive adjusted‑EBITDA full quarter in Q4 2026 (implied Q4 adjusted‑EBITDA ≈ $8M) while remaining on track for positive adjusted‑EBITDA for full‑year 2027.Lemonade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 931.00M | 737.90M | 526.50M | 429.80M | 256.70M | 128.40M |
| Gross Profit | 445.50M | 297.20M | 172.70M | 90.20M | 28.40M | 22.90M |
| EBITDA | -122.20M | -145.70M | -183.90M | -209.80M | -282.60M | -229.90M |
| Net Income | -138.40M | -165.50M | -202.20M | -236.90M | -297.80M | -241.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 1.93B | 1.85B | 1.63B | 1.69B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 559.90M | 1.11B | 1.01B | 937.70M | 1.03B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 206.40M | 182.10M | 107.20M | 43.10M | 35.20M | 22.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 924.40M | 823.90M | 522.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 499.50M | 533.60M | 593.40M | 708.90M | 866.80M | 988.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.10M | -25.90M | -20.80M | -128.30M | -173.10M | -154.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.20M | -16.50M | -11.40M | -119.10M | -163.00M | -144.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -145.10M | -89.10M | 40.60M | 88.70M | 181.10M | -804.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 116.90M | 106.60M | 87.70M | 15.40M | 3.60M | 649.60M |
Lemonade Technical Analysis
Negative
61.99
Price Trends
59.82
Negative
59.22
Negative
65.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.88
Negative
40.51
Neutral
23.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LMND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.37, above the 50-day MA of 59.82, and below the 200-day MA of 65.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LMND.
Lemonade Risk Analysis
Lemonade disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lemonade reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lemonade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $120.48B | 10.87 | 35.40% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.26% | |
81 Outperform | $3.41B | 16.54 | 21.61% | ― | 60.27% | 30.93% | |
71 Outperform | $809.82M | 15.22 | 15.91% | ― | 14.86% | -30.59% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
55 Neutral | $1.54B | -3.18 | -19.33% | 4.44% | -3.92% | -256.50% | |
52 Neutral | $3.88B | -27.41 | -26.78% | ― | 76.73% | 35.36% |
* Financial Sector Average
LMND
Lemonade
51.25
-4.85
-8.65%
PGR
Progressive
217.27
-16.49
-7.06%
KMPR
Kemper
26.72
-25.14
-48.48%
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
126.88
0.45
0.36%
ROOT
Root
56.46
-31.63
-35.91%
Lemonade Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Lemonade Announces CFO Transition and Board Leadership Update
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Lemonade’s board approved the transition of longtime Chief Financial Officer Tim Bixby from his executive role into a Class III board directorship, effective January 1, 2027, formalizing his move from day-to-day financial m...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lemonade Secures Hannover Re Growth Financing Agreement
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Lemonade, Inc. entered into a New Business Financing Agreement with Hannover Re (Ireland) DAC that will allow Hannover to provide up to $250 million in capital to fund Lemonade’s sales and marketing growth efforts from Janu...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lemonade Stockholders Endorse Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Lemonade held its annual stockholders meeting, with 70.12% of voting power represented, and shareholders elected Michael Eisenberg and Debra Schwartz as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting. Investors also ra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.