Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $694.32B
• Dividend Yield: 0.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 36.38%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 5.32
• Shares Outstanding: 947,989,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,215,201
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,725,374
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 17.63
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 80.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 203.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $983.81
• Price Target Upside: 19.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Eli Lilly & Co scores a solid 72, driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook. The company's robust revenue growth, effective cash management, and strategic investments in manufacturing bolster its position. However, high leverage and valuation concerns, along with mixed technical indicators, suggest a need for cautious optimism. The company is poised for growth, yet investors should monitor potential regulatory and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

Analyst reiterates a Buy rating, emphasizing outsized, durable growth and a catalyst-rich stock, not expensive on a PE-to-growth basis.

Market Expansion

Launching higher strength Zepbound single-dose vials and lowering the price of existing vials could help Eli Lilly capture more of the market from GLP-1 compounding.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

The stock weakness is primarily due to CVS Caremark's partnership with NVO and the decision to make Wegovy the preferred treatment on its largest commercial formularies.

Revenue Concerns

Q1 revenues were flattered by an unexpected one-time Jardiance benefit, and excluding this, revenues were below consensus.

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Eli Lilly & Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around developing and commercializing proprietary medications, which are either marketed directly by Eli Lilly or through partnerships and collaborations. Key revenue streams include sales from their flagship diabetes medications like Trulicity and Humalog, oncology treatments such as Verzenio, and other therapies across immunology and pain management. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations, including licensing agreements and joint ventures, contribute to the company's earnings. Factors such as regulatory approvals, patent protections, and market expansions also play a significant role in Eli Lilly's revenue generation.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Eli Lilly & Co exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, robust margins, and a high ROE. The company effectively manages cash flows, with notable improvements in free cash flow. However, the high leverage and relatively low equity ratio suggest careful monitoring of financial obligations. Overall, the company is well-positioned for continued growth, but should remain vigilant regarding its debt levels.

Income Statement

Eli Lilly & Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase in Total Revenue from $45.04B to $49.00B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), representing a growth rate of 8.77%. Gross Profit Margin is robust at 81.69%, and Net Profit Margin has improved to 22.67%. The EBIT Margin is healthy at 41.17%, and EBITDA Margin stands at 36.35%. Overall, the income statement reflects strong profitability and growth trends, positioning the company well within its industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.44, indicating a higher leverage position which poses some risk. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 70.48%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is relatively low at 17.64%, suggesting limited equity financing. While profitability metrics are strong, the high leverage warrants cautious monitoring.

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow has grown significantly to $1.21B TTM, a notable improvement from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.84, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.11, highlighting room for improvement in converting income to free cash. Overall, cash flow metrics are solid, with positive growth trends in free cash flow.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
45.04B	34.12B	28.54B	28.32B	24.54B
	Gross Profit
36.62B	27.04B	21.91B	21.01B	19.06B
	EBIT
17.50B	10.33B	7.13B	6.36B	6.06B
	EBITDA
15.23B	8.57B	8.66B	8.04B	8.91B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
10.59B	5.24B	6.24B	5.58B	6.19B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.42B	2.93B	2.21B	3.91B	3.68B
	Total Assets
78.71B	64.01B	49.49B	48.81B	46.63B
	Total Debt
33.64B	25.23B	16.24B	16.88B	16.60B
	Net Debt
30.38B	22.41B	14.17B	13.07B	12.94B
	Total Liabilities
64.44B	53.14B	38.71B	39.65B	40.81B
	Stockholders Equity
14.19B	10.77B	10.65B	8.98B	5.64B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
414.30M	-3.15B	4.60B	5.39B	4.47B
	Operating Cash Flow
8.82B	4.24B	7.08B	7.26B	6.50B
	Investing Cash Flow
-9.30B	-7.15B	-3.26B	-2.76B	-2.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.23B	3.50B	-5.41B	-4.13B	-3.14B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 823.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 823.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 799.00, below the 50-day MA of 832.25, and below the 200-day MA of 841.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 11.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVO	79 Outperform	$284.58B	19.68	82.03%	1.71%	24.91%	21.42%
JNJ	79 Outperform	$371.98B	26.66	29.45%	3.18%	-0.37%	29.21%
MRK	76 Outperform	$209.31B	12.11	40.81%	3.80%	4.26%	―
AZN	76 Outperform	$221.23B	28.89	19.81%	2.10%	15.48%	22.70%
LLY	72 Outperform	$694.32B	62.53	77.73%	0.66%	36.38%	―
ABBV	63 Neutral	$351.09B	84.43	61.94%	3.21%	5.45%	―
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.35B	3.96	-42.60%	2.86%	17.58%	1.27%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Eli Lilly & Co Appoints Procter & Gamble CEO to Board

Eli Lilly and Company announced the appointment of Jon Moeller, Chairman and CEO of Procter & Gamble, to its board of directors, effective December 1, 2024. Moeller brings extensive experience in leadership and strategic operations, complementing Lilly’s focus on innovation and growth. Concurrently, board member Karen Walker will resign at the end of 2024 but will continue collaborating with Lilly on digital initiatives in 2025. This transition marks a strategic evolution for Lilly as it enhances its digital and commercial capabilities.