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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(8.65% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/06/26
KEY scores in the mid-range driven by (1) a strong earnings-call setup with raised 2026 guidance and continued capital return, and (2) a clear profitability rebound versus 2024. Offsetting that, financial statement quality is tempered by TTM revenue decline, weakening free cash flow momentum, and some balance-sheet cyclicality, while technical signals are neutral-to-soft. Valuation is a relative support with a moderate P/E and solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Raised growth guidance and operating leverage
Higher guidance for revenue, net interest income, loans, and deposits indicates management sees improving operating momentum. If delivered, revenue growth exceeding expense growth should strengthen profitability and support a more durable earnings trajectory over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue and cash-flow deterioration
Despite the earnings recovery, weaker recent revenue and cash-flow momentum signal that the improvement is not yet fully broad-based. Sustained softness could constrain internal funding, reduce flexibility for investment and capital returns, and make results more sensitive to operating fluctuations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised growth guidance and operating leverage
Higher guidance for revenue, net interest income, loans, and deposits indicates management sees improving operating momentum. If delivered, revenue growth exceeding expense growth should strengthen profitability and support a more durable earnings trajectory over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.19B
Dividend Yield3.75%
Average Volume (3M)9.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth18.47%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees17,883
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.73
Shares Outstanding1,067,128,500
10 Day Avg. Volume9,174,599
30 Day Avg. Volume9,136,693
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.77Price Target Upside21.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.06B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commer...
How the Company Makes Money
KeyCorp primarily makes money through a mix of net interest income and noninterest (fee-based) income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest received on earning assets—such as commercial and industrial loans, commercial re...
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong core operating performance: double-digit EPS growth, raised guidance for loans and NII, robust loan growth concentrated in higher-credit-quality commercial clients, record wealth AUM, meaningful fee momentum in payments and wealth, and continued capital returns (share repurchases). Offsetting these positives were a smaller-than-expected NIM improvement driven by timing and mix effects, modestly higher NPAs tied to a few idiosyncratic credits, and some volatility in investment banking fees and servicing income. Management provided clear explanations for the shortfalls, raised full-year targets, and reiterated multi-year ROTCE targets, suggesting confidence in execution despite near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
Reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, up 26% year-over-year; revenue grew 7% YoY and pre-provision net revenue grew 9% YoY.
Negative Updates
NIM Performance Shortfall and Funding Mix
Although NIM expanded sequentially to 2.89%, it was weaker than some expectations. Management cited mix effects: stronger loan growth concentrated in higher-quality (tighter spread) loans, a ~4 bp decline in overnight SOFR, seasonal low deposits in late May, and interim use of short-term wholesale funding. Total funding costs rose 1 bp in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
Reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, up 26% year-over-year; revenue grew 7% YoY and pre-provision net revenue grew 9% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Key raised 2026 guidance across several metrics: revenue is now expected to grow 7–8% and tax‑equivalent net interest income 9–11%, with net interest margin targeted to exit 2026 at 3.00–3.05% (management on track to meet or exceed 3%); average earning assets are expected to increase $1–2 billion from Q2, average loans to rise 4–5% (commercial loans 8–10%), and average client deposits to grow >2% through year‑end. Management cites >$9 billion of low‑yield fixed‑asset repricing in H2 (≈1.25% pickup) and expects revenue to grow ~2x expenses (full‑year expense growth guide 3–4%), while Q2 net charge‑offs were 42 bps with a full‑year NCO outlook of 40–45 bps; Q2 nonperforming assets annualized 74 bps. Capital and other targets include CET1 11.2% (marked CET1 9.8%), at least $1.3 billion of share repurchases (Q2 repurchases >$340M), commercial mortgage servicing fees ~$50–60M/quarter, tangible book value per share +6% YoY, and a path to >15% ROTCE by end‑2027 (16–19% long‑term).KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.48B | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 6.76B | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 1.90B | 2.32B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 191.32B | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.17B | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 14.65B | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 171.52B | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.80B | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.20B | 2.10B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 2.21B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.40B | 3.22B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.03B | -5.88B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Negative
22.09
Price Trends
22.44
Negative
22.01
Negative
21.08
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
44.30
Neutral
50.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.96, below the 50-day MA of 22.44, and above the 200-day MA of 21.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $34.52B | 12.65 | 10.66% | 2.50% | 0.31% | 22.76% | |
73 Outperform | $29.33B | 15.19 | 8.14% | 2.61% | 1.24% | 40.55% | |
71 Outperform | $25.52B | 12.15 | 11.79% | 3.63% | 0.26% | 14.72% | |
68 Neutral | $33.80B | 12.40 | 8.58% | 3.68% | 18.13% | -3.57% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $24.05B | 11.62 | 10.68% | 0.39% | -1.38% | 10.35% | |
65 Neutral | $23.19B | 12.62 | 10.12% | 3.75% | 18.47% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
21.84
3.53
19.31%
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares
2,173.00
206.41
10.50%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
16.86
-0.27
-1.56%
MTB
M&T Bank
239.83
46.57
24.10%
RF
Regions Financial
30.13
4.03
15.42%
CFG
Citizens Financial
70.48
20.17
40.10%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
KeyCorp Plans Redemption of Series D Preferred Stock
Neutral
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, KeyCorp announced that it had given notice of its plan to redeem all 525,000 depositary shares representing its Series D Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock on September 15, 2026. The outstanding dep...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Updates Medium-Term Note Program for Flexibility
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, KeyCorp updated its Medium-Term Note Program, enabling the company to issue Senior Medium-Term Notes, Series U, and Subordinated Medium-Term Notes, Series V, under existing senior and subordinated indentures with Deutsche Bank Tr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.