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Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd (9853) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:9853

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd

(TSE/TYO:9853)

Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:JPY 943.00▲(3.85% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/17/26

The score is primarily supported by improving fundamentals (return to profitability, better leverage, and stronger free cash flow), but capped by the need to prove consistency after several loss years and by a high P/E multiple relative to the current earnings base. Technical indicators are broadly neutral and do not materially strengthen the near-term outlook.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability RecoveryRevenue growth and the return to operating and net profitability indicate that demand and store economics have improved. However, the modest 1.9% net margin means the recovery still needs to persist before earnings power is firmly established.
Negative Factors
Unproven Profitability DurabilityThe company incurred losses in 2023–2025 before earning ¥160.0M in 2026, while net margin was only about 1.9%. This history makes the recovery less proven and leaves profits vulnerable if operating performance weakens.

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd (9853) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%JP:9853-2.37%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 5.53B
Dividend Yield
0.55%
Average Volume (3M)
2,171
Price to Earnings (P/E)
28.1
Beta (1Y)
0.06
Revenue Growth
4.58%
EPS Growth
723.31%
Country
Japan
Employees
151
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Restaurants

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd. was established in 1964 and primarily focuses on the coffee shop sector within Japan. Its activities extend to the production, processing, and distribution of food items, as well as the oversight...

How the Company Makes Money

null

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a meaningful turnaround: revenue reached 8.35B in 2026 (+5.3% YoY) and net income returned to positive (160.0M). Leverage improved with debt down to 1.53B and debt/equity ~0.48x, while cash flow strengthened (OCF 539.3M; FCF 377.2M). The key constraint is durability—multiple loss years (2023–2025), thin net margins (~1.9% in 2026), and historically choppy cash generation.

Income Statement

60Neutral

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.38B8.35B7.80B7.35B6.12B4.56B
Gross Profit6.76B6.75B6.30B5.94B5.13B3.94B
EBITDA475.32M407.17M218.34M127.03M-78.14M619.40M
Net Income147.78M159.98M-76.45M-59.14M-293.53M347.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.63B5.69B5.89B6.26B6.43B6.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.82B1.86B1.96B2.29B2.59B3.12B
Total Debt1.47B1.53B1.94B2.22B2.36B2.49B
Total Liabilities2.34B2.44B2.79B3.06B3.15B3.27B
Stockholders Equity3.24B3.20B3.06B3.16B3.24B3.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0377.25M54.73M-93.35M-344.05M81.28M
Operating Cash Flow0539.34M295.80M316.22M-34.37M410.11M
Investing Cash Flow0-207.93M-320.41M-454.06M-357.19M586.52M
Financing Cash Flow0-432.51M-300.63M-162.88M-141.17M381.38M

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price908.00

Price Trends

50DMA907.86Positive
100DMA907.26Positive
200DMA917.61Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.33Positive
RSI51.39Neutral
STOCH61.90Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9853, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 908.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 907.50, above the 50-day MA of 907.86, and below the 200-day MA of 917.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9853.

Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:9853 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3087JP:308773OutperformJPY 170.46B19.26―1.60%7.72%32.66%
JP:7581JP:758172OutperformJPY 418.73B37.858.59%0.41%17.44%-1.16%
JP:3543JP:354371OutperformJPY 138.75B19.75―2.06%13.20%13.76%
JP:3395JP:339560NeutralJPY 57.51B22.28―2.03%16.57%32.06%
JP:9853JP:985358NeutralJPY 5.53B28.08―0.55%4.58%723.31%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:8153JP:815355NeutralJPY 138.14B34.91―0.81%6.32%10.13%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%JP:9853JP:7581JP:3087JP:3395JP:3543JP:8153Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:9853 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:9853Ginza Renoir Co., Ltd908.00-20.09-2.16%
JP:7581Saizeriya Co 8600.003176.4258.57%
JP:3087Doutor Nichires Holdings Co., Ltd.3875.001452.2559.94%
JP:3395Saint Marc Holdings Co., Ltd.2608.00-63.99-2.39%
JP:3543KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd.2958.0032.321.10%
JP:8153MOS FOOD SERVICES, INC.4440.00460.2811.57%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026