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GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. (9850) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:9850

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD.

(TSE/TYO:9850)

Select Model
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:JPY 989.00▲(7.03% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and thin free-cash-flow generation despite revenue growth and improving leverage. Technicals are mildly constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages, but valuation is a significant headwind given the extremely high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Revenue RecoveryContinued revenue growth indicates that customer demand and restaurant activity have recovered from the loss-making FY2021–FY2023 period, providing a durable base for future earnings if store economics and cost control improve.
Negative Factors
Margin CompressionThe sustained decline in net and operating profitability suggests that higher labor, food, occupancy, or other operating costs are absorbing sales gains, leaving little earnings buffer if pricing power or customer traffic weakens.

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. (9850) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%JP:9850-3.37%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 20.95B
Dividend Yield
0.76%
Average Volume (3M)
57.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
530.6
Beta (1Y)
0.32
Revenue Growth
1.71%
EPS Growth
-91.47%
Country
Japan
Employees
1,150
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Restaurants

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gourmet Kineya Co.,Ltd. operates a chain of restaurants. The company operates through Restaurant Business, ODM/OEM Business, Real Estate Leasing Business, and Transportation Business segments. It also offers in-flight meals; operates wholesale market...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by selling food and beverages through its restaurant operations. Revenue is generated from in-store dining sales (and, where applicable, takeout and delivery) across its portfolio of restaurant brands and locations,...

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Top-line recovery remains intact, but profitability has weakened sharply (net margin ~0.5% in FY2026 vs ~1.5% FY2025 and ~3.0% FY2024). Leverage is improving (debt-to-equity down to ~1.43x), yet the balance sheet remains debt-heavy and ROE has fallen (~2.4%). Cash flow is the main drag: free cash flow is modest (~¥0.33B) with weak cash conversion (FCF/NI ~0.21x), limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

54Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

46Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue43.53B44.09B42.07B37.03B29.89B23.27B
Gross Profit14.87B15.10B14.42B12.78B10.28B7.37B
EBITDA1.24B1.61B1.94B2.41B255.02M2.22B
Net Income39.54M225.19M649.19M1.10B-1.15B513.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets45.29B30.95B31.46B37.69B38.83B40.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.47B5.13B5.51B12.29B13.06B12.86B
Total Debt28.01B13.34B13.95B20.56B23.40B23.49B
Total Liabilities36.20B21.40B22.05B28.79B30.99B31.09B
Stockholders Equity8.87B9.34B9.25B8.75B7.68B8.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0331.87M275.85M249.14M-467.62M1.80B
Operating Cash Flow01.59B1.65B1.47B483.21M2.56B
Investing Cash Flow0-1.17B-1.56B564.27M-233.47M287.52M
Financing Cash Flow0-769.77M-6.79B-2.84B-92.27M2.80B

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price924.00

Price Trends

50DMA953.70Negative
100DMA960.71Negative
200DMA970.08Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-7.24Negative
RSI45.17Neutral
STOCH81.90Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9850, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 924.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 926.85, below the 50-day MA of 953.70, and below the 200-day MA of 970.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9850.

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:9850 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:7630JP:763071OutperformJPY 167.44B72.96―1.53%8.36%-24.27%
JP:9861JP:986169NeutralJPY 304.58B51.53―0.49%9.53%37.85%
JP:8200JP:820068NeutralJPY 63.13B33.58―0.57%2.31%63.43%
JP:9887JP:988766NeutralJPY 119.41B28.44―0.43%17.68%41.66%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:8153JP:815355NeutralJPY 138.14B34.91―0.81%6.32%10.13%
JP:9850JP:985051NeutralJPY 21.27B530.63―0.76%1.71%-91.47%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%60%JP:9850JP:7630JP:8153JP:8200JP:9861JP:9887Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:9850 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:9850GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD.924.00-37.18-3.87%
JP:7630Ichibanya Co., Ltd.1044.00144.6416.08%
JP:8153MOS FOOD SERVICES, INC.4440.00460.2811.57%
JP:8200Ringer Hut Co., Ltd.2445.00209.599.38%
JP:9861Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd.4691.001704.2257.06%
JP:9887Matsuya Foods Holdings Co., Ltd.5760.00-212.02-3.55%

GOURMET KINEYA CO., LTD. Corporate Events

Gourmet Kineya Announces Modest Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency

Aug 12, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd. has resolved to acquire up to 24,000 of its common shares, with a maximum outlay of ¥30 million, through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between August 21 and September 30, 2026. The buyback is intended to enhanc...

Gourmet Kineya Posts Wider Quarterly Loss but Holds Dividend and Full-Year Outlook

Aug 12, 2026

Gourmet Kineya reported net sales of ¥9,899 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, down 5.4% year-on-year, and posted an operating loss of ¥387 million, widening from the prior-year loss, with profit attributable to owners of parent at a negati...

Gourmet Kineya Finalizes Second Series of Stock Acquisition Rights for Directors

Jul 31, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd. has finalized the terms of its Second Series of Stock Acquisition Rights, structured as paid stock options for group leadership. The program will allocate 7,430 stock acquisition rights to 13 directors of the company and its...

Gourmet Kineya Launches Performance-Linked Stock Options for Directors

Jul 16, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd. has approved the issuance of paid stock acquisition rights to directors of the company and its subsidiaries, structured as stock options subscribed at fair value rather than as compensation. The plan follows an earlier unused...

Gourmet Kineya Cancels Director Stock Option Issuance After Exercise Terms Dispute

Jun 30, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd. has finalized the terms of a planned issuance of paid stock acquisition rights intended for directors of the company and its subsidiaries. The issuance was initially approved by the board on June 10, 2026, but ultimately resu...

Gourmet Kineya Secures Dual ¥7.25 Billion Overdraft Lines to Boost Liquidity

Jun 25, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd., a Japan-based restaurant and food service operator listed on the TSE Prime Market, has entered into new secured credit lines to bolster its financial flexibility. The company continues to support its dining-focused business...

Gourmet Kineya Makes MEAL HUB an Equity-Method Affiliate to Drive Airline Catering Expansion

Jun 24, 2026

Gourmet Kineya has approved a major capital injection into MEAL HUB Co., Ltd., a joint venture with Kobe Bussan Co., Ltd., to support its entry into the airline catering business. Following this capital increase, Gourmet Kineya will hold 25% of MEAL...

Gourmet Kineya Reveals Financial Profile of Highly Leveraged Parent MUKUMOTO

Jun 18, 2026

Gourmet Kineya disclosed that its unlisted parent company MUKUMOTO Co., Ltd. has finalized financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, providing detailed balance sheet data to enhance transparency for investors. MUKUMOTO reported tota...

Gourmet Kineya Clarifies Relationship With Controlling Shareholder

Jun 18, 2026

Gourmet Kineya Co., Ltd. has disclosed that MUKUMOTO Co., Ltd. holds 25.13% of its voting rights as an other associated company, making it a controlling shareholder under disclosure rules. The company emphasizes that there is no business relationship...

Gourmet Kineya Sets Ambitious Profit Hurdles for New Director Stock Options

Jun 10, 2026

Gourmet Kineya has approved the issuance of 7,430 paid stock acquisition rights as stock options for directors of the company and its subsidiaries, corresponding to up to 743,000 shares, or about 3.24% of outstanding stock. The options will be subscr...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 18, 2026