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Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. (JP:9761)
:9761
Japanese Market
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Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. (9761) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:9761

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd.

(9761)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,499.00
▲(1.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating financial performance—especially the steep revenue/margin drop and persistently negative free cash flow—despite a serviceable balance sheet. Technicals are relatively strong (price above major moving averages with positive momentum), and valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and high dividend yield), but fundamentals remain the main constraint.
Positive Factors
Recurring rental and lifecycle services
The rental model can provide repeat corporate demand, while delivery, installation and removal services broaden revenue per project. Asset utilization and rental duration offer operating leverage when construction and event activity support demand.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue and margin deterioration
The sharp revenue contraction and halving of gross margin weaken earnings visibility and suggest reduced rental economics, pricing pressure or cost absorption. Unless reversed, this can impair utilization, profitability and the returns generated by the asset base.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring rental and lifecycle services
The rental model can provide repeat corporate demand, while delivery, installation and removal services broaden revenue per project. Asset utilization and rental duration offer operating leverage when construction and event activity support demand.
Read all positive factors

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. (9761) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Tokai Lease Co., Ltd., an Osaka, Japan-headquartered company established in 1963, specializes in the manufacturing, sale, and rental of temporary buildings, along with associated fixtures and fittings across Japan. Their extensive range includes "...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokai Lease primarily makes money by leasing and renting temporary facilities and equipment to corporate customers. Its core revenue stream is recurring rental/lease fees generated from providing prefabricated/temporary buildings and other site-us...

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financial quality is pressured by a sharp 2026 revenue decline (~-59% YoY) and margin compression (gross margin ~10% vs ~21% prior year), plus weak cash conversion and negative free cash flow for three consecutive years (about -1.51B in 2026). The balance sheet is serviceable with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.0), but rising leverage and modest ROE (~4.1%) limit confidence.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue19.30B18.86B18.40B17.18B15.74B16.42B
Gross Profit2.03B1.95B3.95B3.30B2.30B2.79B
EBITDA3.16B3.14B3.28B2.74B2.02B2.32B
Net Income712.31M723.22M1.07B675.33M148.51M324.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets38.90B39.41B36.66B34.55B31.29B31.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.12B3.57B2.55B2.38B2.58B2.49B
Total Debt16.08B17.18B13.95B12.41B11.34B11.52B
Total Liabilities21.23B21.75B19.58B18.32B15.89B16.25B
Stockholders Equity17.50B17.50B16.92B16.08B15.26B15.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-1.51B-1.14B-1.83B664.30M348.17M
Operating Cash Flow0.00695.97M1.03B1.19B2.40B2.42B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-2.16B-1.82B-3.59B-1.93B-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow0.002.54B958.49M1.59B-388.62M-624.12M

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2474.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2343.62
Positive
100DMA
2315.61
Positive
200DMA
2380.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
25.22
Positive
RSI
57.06
Neutral
STOCH
49.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9761, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2474 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2407.75, above the 50-day MA of 2343.62, and above the 200-day MA of 2380.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 25.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9761.

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥36.78B16.544.36%0.43%-2.62%
74
Outperform
¥25.14B10.573.29%24.76%2.04%
64
Neutral
¥53.86B5.522.38%30.30%-2.84%
60
Neutral
¥64.82B9.222.89%36.85%83.36%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
54
Neutral
¥8.38B11.815.03%1.74%-37.04%
54
Neutral
¥39.22B13.340.45%43.47%151.64%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:9761
Tokai Lease Co., Ltd.
2,430.00
236.51
10.78%
JP:2980
SRE Holdings Corp.
2,461.00
-798.51
-24.50%
JP:3252
JINUSHI Co.,Ltd.
2,980.00
70.73
2.43%
JP:3276
Japan Property Management Center Co.Ltd.
2,246.00
998.41
80.03%
JP:3482
Loadstar Capital KK
2,642.00
177.00
7.18%
JP:7187
J-LEASE CO., LTD.
1,379.00
-272.36
-16.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026