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Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (JP:8766)
:8766

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) AI Stock Analysis

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Tokio Marine Holdings

(OTC:8766)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
Tokio Marine Holdings has a strong financial foundation with robust revenue growth and efficient operations. The valuation is attractive, with a low P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield, making it appealing for value investors. However, the absence of cash flow in TTM presents a risk to financial health, and technical indicators suggest mixed market sentiment, with potential bearish momentum. Focusing on improving cash flow generation will be critical for sustaining long-term growth.

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Tokio Marine Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTokio Marine Holdings, Inc. is a leading global insurance group headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. The company operates in the property and casualty insurance sectors, offering a wide range of insurance products and services including automobile, homeowners, marine, and reinsurance. Additionally, Tokio Marine provides life insurance and has a significant presence in international markets, with operations spanning Asia, Europe, and the Americas. The company is known for its robust risk management practices and commitment to sustainability and innovation in the insurance industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyTokio Marine Holdings generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies in both the property and casualty and life insurance sectors. The company earns premiums from policyholders in exchange for providing coverage against various risks such as accidents, natural disasters, and other unforeseen events. In addition to premium income, Tokio Marine generates income through investment activities, leveraging the premiums collected to invest in a diverse portfolio of financial instruments, including bonds, equities, and real estate. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its product offerings and market reach, particularly in international markets. Effective risk management and cost control measures are key factors that contribute to Tokio Marine's profitability.

Tokio Marine Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -0.70%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased strong financial performance and growth in FY 2024, with positive forecasts for FY 2025. However, challenges such as social inflation in North America, a decrease in life insurance premiums, and concerns with CRE loans and repair costs due to inflation were highlighted.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance in FY 2024
Adjusted net income for FY 2024 was JPY680.9 billion, exceeding the February forecast by JPY27.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14%.
Increased Dividend Payout
DPS for fiscal year 2024 was JPY172, an increase of JPY10 over the forecast at mid-year, resulting in a 40% growth. DPS for fiscal 2025 is projected to increase by JPY38 to JPY210, a growth of 22%.
Successful Sale of Business-Related Equities
Sales of business-related equities amounted to JPY922 billion in FY 2024, exceeding the February forecast by JPY10 billion and 1.5x higher than the initial forecast.
Steady Growth Forecast for FY 2025
Forecast for fiscal 2025 is JPY700 billion excluding gains on sales, with expected 3% growth, driven by strong performance of international business and rate increase in Japan P&C.
Planned Share Buybacks
For fiscal 2025, the company plans to repurchase JPY220 billion of its own shares, with JPY110 billion already approved.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Social Inflation in North America
There was a large provisioning for liability insurance in North America due to social inflation, highlighting ongoing challenges in this area.
Life Insurance Premium Decrease
Life insurance premiums decreased by 44% due to block reinsurance implementation by Anshin Life.
CRE Loan Concerns
Capital loss on CRE loans was revised from minus $265 million to minus $440 million, highlighting challenges in this sector.
Impact of Inflation on Repair Costs
Unit repair costs increased by 7% in FY 2024, exceeding the initial assumption, with expectations of continued growth in FY 2025.
Company Guidance
During the FY 2024 results and FY 2025 presentation call, several key metrics were highlighted. For FY 2024, Tokio Marine reported an adjusted net income of JPY 680.9 billion, which was JPY 27.9 billion higher than the forecast in February, primarily due to the yen's appreciation against foreign currencies. The normalized adjusted net income was JPY 679.0 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year growth. The company's sales of business-related equities reached JPY 922 billion, exceeding forecasts by JPY 10 billion, contributing to an adjusted net income, including these gains, of JPY 1.215 trillion. For FY 2025, the company projects an adjusted net income of JPY 700 billion, excluding gains from equity sales, indicating a 3% growth from the previous year's normalized income. The forecasted sales of business-related equities remain at JPY 600 billion, with an expected adjusted net income of JPY 1.100 trillion after completing these sales. Shareholder returns are planned to increase, with a dividend per share (DPS) growth of 40% in FY 2024, resulting in a DPS of JPY 172, and a further increase to JPY 210 in FY 2025, representing a 22% growth. The company also announced a share buyback plan of JPY 220 billion for FY 2025, with JPY 110 billion approved for immediate repurchase.

Tokio Marine Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tokio Marine Holdings demonstrates robust financial performance with strong revenue and profit growth, supported by efficient operations and prudent balance sheet management. Despite these strengths, the recent absence of cash flow in TTM suggests potential liquidity challenges. Overall, the company is positioned well in its industry, but enhancing cash flow generation will be crucial for sustained growth and financial resilience.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Tokio Marine Holdings exhibits strong financial performance with a consistent increase in Total Revenue, growing from ¥5.3 trillion in 2021 to ¥7.7 trillion in TTM. The Gross Profit Margin remains high at 100%, indicative of efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin has improved significantly to 13.8% in TTM, reflecting effective operational strategies. There is a robust EBIT Margin of 65.4% and EBITDA Margin of 8.0% in TTM, showcasing strong operational efficiency. The company has demonstrated solid revenue growth, particularly in recent years.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a healthy Equity Ratio of 16.2% in TTM, suggesting sufficient equity backing assets. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.045 in TTM, indicating conservative leverage. However, Return on Equity (ROE) stands at a moderate 21.7% in TTM, signaling room for improved profitability from equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and prudent debt management, although there is potential to enhance returns on equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Tokio Marine Holdings faces challenges in cash flow generation with zero Operating and Free Cash Flow in TTM, limiting cash availability for reinvestment and debt servicing. Historically, the company maintained positive cash flows, suggesting potential for recovery. The absence of cash flow metrics in TTM underscores the need for improved cash management strategies to sustain financial health.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
7.77T7.58T893.46B6.44T5.75T5.32T
Gross Profit
7.77T0.00867.45B6.44T5.75T5.32T
EBIT
5.08T1.32T821.87B349.01B394.04B88.98B
EBITDA
902.37B1.48T847.87B726.82B724.59B397.33B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.07T1.06T695.81B374.61B420.48B161.80B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.16T0.00896.90B871.99B848.82B812.01B
Total Assets
30.52T31.24T30.59T27.70T27.25T25.77T
Total Debt
224.58B227.25B224.40B222.81B219.79B230.60B
Net Debt
-930.43B-843.90B-672.49B-649.18B-629.02B-581.41B
Total Liabilities
25.58T26.13T25.41T962.51B23.17T22.04T
Stockholders Equity
4.94T5.08T5.18T3.63T4.02T3.67T
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
0.001.32T1.05T982.71B1.07T1.15T
Operating Cash Flow
0.001.35T1.07T1.01T1.10T1.18T
Investing Cash Flow
0.00177.45B-627.65B18.07B-665.44B-731.01B
Financing Cash Flow
0.00-1.20T-406.20B-1.01T-504.63B-512.97B

Tokio Marine Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5809.00
Price Trends
50DMA
5744.34
Positive
100DMA
5526.53
Positive
200DMA
5480.51
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
10.75
Positive
RSI
44.19
Neutral
STOCH
9.88
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8766, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5809 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6031.20, above the 50-day MA of 5744.34, and above the 200-day MA of 5480.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:8766.

Tokio Marine Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$1.34T9.059.63%3.23%7.11%28.65%
73
Outperform
$11.05T10.6820.44%3.14%14.87%74.60%
72
Outperform
$4.00T9.9414.66%3.50%11.37%27.90%
71
Outperform
¥2.65T8.089.88%5.12%13.94%109.60%
67
Neutral
¥5.02T7.1016.15%3.16%-1.15%104.17%
67
Neutral
¥707.04B10.837.42%3.37%7.67%16.19%
64
Neutral
$3.95T9.2511.52%3.54%2.99%81.04%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8766
Tokio Marine Holdings
5,809.00
444.24
8.28%
JP:8604
Nomura Holdings
890.00
43.28
5.11%
JP:8601
Daiwa
982.80
-121.13
-10.97%
JP:8725
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings
3,126.00
68.21
2.23%
JP:8750
Dai-ichi Life Holdings
1,070.00
80.20
8.10%
JP:8630
Sompo Holdings
4,271.00
1,133.25
36.12%

Tokio Marine Holdings Corporate Events

Tokio Marine Completes Share Repurchase Program
Apr 11, 2025

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. announced the completion of its share repurchase program, acquiring 2,186,500 common shares for approximately 11.57 billion yen. This move is part of a broader strategy approved by the board to repurchase up to 75 million shares, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

Tokio Marine Holdings Reports Progress on Share Repurchase Program
Apr 7, 2025

Tokio Marine Holdings announced the progress of its share repurchase program, which was approved by its board of directors in November 2024. The company has repurchased over 5.5 million common shares for approximately 31 billion yen between March 1 and March 31, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan to repurchase up to 75 million shares by May 2025, reflecting a strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

Tokio Marine to Divest Mitsubishi Shares in Strategic Move
Apr 3, 2025

Tokio Marine Holdings announced that its subsidiary, Tokio Marine & Nichido, will tender all its shares in Mitsubishi Corporation as part of a tender offer by MC. This decision aligns with the company’s strategy to reduce business-related equities and reallocate capital towards solving social problems and growth areas. If successful, the sale is expected to generate significant gains, impacting the company’s financial results positively for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.