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Tokio Marine Holdings
(8766)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
¥591.00
▼(-92.02% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:09/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability/ROE and low recent leverage), tempered by the latest-year revenue decline and significant cash-flow volatility. Technicals are neutral-to-constructive, while valuation is supported by a reasonable P/E and the very high reported dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and returns
Improved profitability and mid-to-high-teens ROE indicate that Tokio Marine is converting its insurance and investment activities into strong shareholder returns. Margin resilience through 2026 provides a durable earnings base and supports continued capital generation despite slower revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Latest-year revenue contraction
The 2026 revenue decline interrupts the company’s prior expansion trend and raises uncertainty about near-term premium and fee growth. If the contraction persists, it could limit operating leverage and make it harder for Tokio Marine to sustain recent earnings momentum.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and returns
Improved profitability and mid-to-high-teens ROE indicate that Tokio Marine is converting its insurance and investment activities into strong shareholder returns. Margin resilience through 2026 provides a durable earnings base and supports continued capital generation despite slower revenue growth.
Read all positive factors
Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥15.16T
Dividend Yield43.72%
Average Volume (3M)77.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-0.19%
EPS Growth-40.12%
CountryJP
Employees67,526
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)27.24
Shares Outstanding29,010,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume70,630,589
30 Day Avg. Volume77,088,163
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.89
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio25.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)32.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥8.04T
Tokio Marine Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services conglomerate primarily specializing in life and non-life insurance products, alongside a variety of financial and general business activities. The company manages its operations through fo...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokio Marine Holdings makes money primarily through underwriting insurance and investing the funds it holds to pay future claims.
1) Underwriting income (core insurance earnings)
- Premium revenue: The company’s main operating revenue is insuranc...
Tokio Marine Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased strong financial performance and growth in FY 2024, with positive forecasts for FY 2025. However, challenges such as social inflation in North America, a decrease in life insurance premiums, and concerns with CRE loans and repair costs due to inflation were highlighted.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance in FY 2024
Adjusted net income for FY 2024 was JPY680.9 billion, exceeding the February forecast by JPY27.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14%.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Social Inflation in North America
There was a large provisioning for liability insurance in North America due to social inflation, highlighting ongoing challenges in this area.
Read all updates
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance in FY 2024
Adjusted net income for FY 2024 was JPY680.9 billion, exceeding the February forecast by JPY27.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the FY 2024 results and FY 2025 presentation call, several key metrics were highlighted. For FY 2024, Tokio Marine reported an adjusted net income of JPY 680.9 billion, which was JPY 27.9 billion higher than the forecast in February, primarily due to the yen's appreciation against foreign currencies. The normalized adjusted net income was JPY 679.0 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year growth. The company's sales of business-related equities reached JPY 922 billion, exceeding forecasts by JPY 10 billion, contributing to an adjusted net income, including these gains, of JPY 1.215 trillion. For FY 2025, the company projects an adjusted net income of JPY 700 billion, excluding gains from equity sales, indicating a 3% growth from the previous year's normalized income. The forecasted sales of business-related equities remain at JPY 600 billion, with an expected adjusted net income of JPY 1.100 trillion after completing these sales. Shareholder returns are planned to increase, with a dividend per share (DPS) growth of 40% in FY 2024, resulting in a DPS of JPY 172, and a further increase to JPY 210 in FY 2025, representing a 22% growth. The company also announced a share buyback plan of JPY 220 billion for FY 2025, with JPY 110 billion approved for immediate repurchase.Tokio Marine Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.97T | 7.51T | 7.58T | 7.08T | 6.21T | 5.66T |
| Gross Profit | 3.45T | 3.66T | 3.95T | 3.72T | 3.14T | 3.05T |
| EBITDA | 1.17T | 1.61T | 1.71T | 1.06T | 726.82B | 724.58B |
| Net Income | 777.91B | 980.43B | 1.06T | 695.81B | 374.60B | 420.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.68T | 31.96T | 31.24T | 30.59T | 27.40T | 27.25T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.79T | 1.03T | 1.07T | 896.90B | 871.99B | 848.82B |
| Total Debt | 772.57B | 227.00B | 227.25B | 224.40B | 222.81B | 219.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.35T | 26.50T | 26.13T | 25.41T | 23.80T | 23.17T |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.20T | 5.42T | 5.08T | 5.18T | 3.58T | 4.02T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 539.30B | 1.32T | 1.05T | 982.83B | 1.07T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 584.26B | 1.35T | 1.07T | 1.01T | 1.10T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 654.53B | 177.45B | -616.43B | 29.16B | -658.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -639.06B | -1.20T | -417.42B | -1.02T | -511.42B |
Tokio Marine Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
7408.00
Price Trends
514.47
Positive
498.72
Positive
454.22
Positive
Market Momentum
6.87
Negative
58.35
Neutral
30.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8766, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7408 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 523.65, above the 50-day MA of 514.47, and above the 200-day MA of 454.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8766.
Tokio Marine Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | ¥7.13T | 7.97 | 17.52% | 3.73% | 20.69% | 30.43% | |
76 Outperform | ¥15.16T | 18.81 | 12.98% | 43.72% | -0.19% | -40.12% | |
75 Outperform | ¥6.13T | 8.43 | 13.88% | 2.61% | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | ¥6.74T | 11.93 | 13.20% | 3.54% | 16.92% | 66.45% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | ¥2.32T | 16.01 | 8.97% | 3.08% | 6.25% | 17.99% | |
50 Neutral | ¥1.90T | 11.27 | ― | 2.57% | -5.90% | 27.69% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8766
Tokio Marine Holdings
521.00
121.45
30.40%
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Tokio Marine Holdings Corporate Events
Tokio Marine Settles Key Greensill-Linked Lawsuits Without Material Financial Hit
Sep 28, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings said its core unit Tokio Marine Nichido Fire Insurance has reached a confidential settlement with Credit Suisse, now part of UBS Group, over litigation in Australia tied to insurance policies connected to collapsed supply ch...
Tokio Marine Reports Initial Progress on 200 Billion Yen Share Buyback
Sep 8, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has disclosed progress on a share repurchase program approved by its board in May 2026, underscoring an active capital management strategy. The company repurchased 585,000 common shares during August 2026 at a total cost of a...
Tokio Marine to Enact Major Stock Split and Launch Long-Term Shareholder Rewards
Aug 25, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings will implement a 15-for-one stock split effective October 1, 2026, reducing the investment unit to make its shares more accessible and expand its investor base. The split will increase total issued shares to 29,010,000,000, w...
Tokio Marine Details Q1 FY2026 Performance Across Global Insurance Operations
Aug 12, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings released supplemental information for its summary report covering the three months ended June 30, 2026, detailing key consolidated figures across its insurance and solution businesses. The materials highlight performance metr...
Tokio Marine Posts Higher Q1 IFRS Profits, Keeps Full-Year Outlook and Dividend Hike
Aug 12, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings reported strong consolidated results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 under IFRS, with insurance revenue rising 12.3% year on year to ¥2.05 trillion and income before income taxes up 11.5%. Net income attributabl...
Tokio Marine Completes ¥287 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Shareholder Returns
Aug 4, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. is a leading Japanese insurance group engaged primarily in non-life and life insurance, along with related financial and risk management services. The company operates globally, focusing on corporate and retail clients ...
Tokio Marine Reports No Activity Yet Under Large Share Buyback Plan
Aug 4, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has disclosed the progress of a share repurchase program authorized by its board in May 2026, allowing the company to buy back up to 130 million common shares for a total of up to ¥200 billion through late December. The ...
Tokio Marine Advances Share Buyback, Repurchasing Over 26.9 Million Shares by June
Jul 7, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has continued its ongoing share buyback program, repurchasing 10,704,200 common shares for about 77.4 billion yen between June 1 and June 30, 2026. This activity is part of a broader board-approved initiative to return capita...
Tokio Marine Reports No Activity Yet Under Large Share Buyback Program
Jul 7, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings reported on the progress of its ongoing share repurchase program authorized by its board on May 20, 2026, under Japan’s Companies Act. The resolution allows the company to buy back up to 130,000,000 common shares, repre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.