Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. (6838) AI Stock Analysis

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:6838)

Select Model

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,128.00▼(-0.97% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/16/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent cash flow (including negative operating and deeply negative free cash flow in the latest year) and a technically weak setup (negative MACD, RSI ~40, and price below key moving averages). These risks outweigh the recent improvement in profitability and revenue growth, while valuation is only moderately supportive given the ~25 P/E and very low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue and earnings recoveryThe latest recovery shows renewed demand and improved operating performance across the business. If revenue expansion and profitability persist, Tamagawa can rebuild earnings capacity, strengthen internal funding, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Unreliable cash generationNegative operating and free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are not consistently converting into usable funds. Persistent cash shortfalls could constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on financing, and weaken the company’s ability to manage volatility through internally generated cash.

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. (6838) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 10.39B
Dividend Yield: 0.88%
Average Volume (3M): 191.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.9
Beta (1Y): 1.38
Revenue Growth: ―
EPS Growth: ―
Country: Japan
Employees: 278
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Conglomerates

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. operates primarily within the electronic and communication equipment sector. The company's product portfolio includes a broad range of high-frequency electronic components, such as attenuators, splitters, couplers, switche...

How the Company Makes Money

Revenue is generated primarily through (1) the sale of electronics and communications-related products (e.g., components, modules, equipment, or systems supplied to corporate customers), and (2) related engineering, customization, and support service...

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings improved in the latest year with revenue up ~23.8% and a return to profitability, but cash generation is a major weakness: operating cash flow turned slightly negative and free cash flow was deeply negative (~-0.64B). Leverage has increased over time (debt-to-equity ~0.68 vs. ~0.21 in 2022), and results have been volatile across recent years, lowering overall financial quality.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

34Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Oct 2025	Oct 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.51B	5.59B	4.04B	4.15B	3.29B	6.24B
Gross Profit	1.29B	1.69B	1.22B	1.09B	860.33M	1.67B
EBITDA	201.33M	767.28M	148.49M	12.53M	-198.22M	513.85M
Net Income	-240.88M	268.65M	-194.90M	-443.35M	-482.79M	148.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.54B	11.28B	9.84B	9.57B	8.65B	8.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	992.45M	1.34B	1.74B	1.21B	1.06B	2.06B
Total Debt	3.19B	3.72B	3.57B	3.22B	2.23B	1.12B
Total Liabilities	4.59B	5.80B	5.16B	4.69B	3.65B	2.92B
Stockholders Equity	4.95B	5.47B	4.68B	4.89B	5.00B	5.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-636.94M	178.76M	-1.20B	-2.08B	-109.46M
Operating Cash Flow	0	-25.73M	257.81M	-1.13B	-1.88B	-16.80M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-472.26M	-97.06M	-859.00K	-273.42M	-165.85M
Financing Cash Flow	0	76.46M	391.57M	1.27B	1.15B	-170.10M

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price1139.00

Price Trends

50DMA1379.10Negative

100DMA1513.64Negative

200DMA1402.76Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-74.86Positive

RSI34.82Neutral

STOCH49.92Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6838, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1139.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1270.40, below the 50-day MA of 1379.10, and below the 200-day MA of 1402.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -74.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6838.

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:6838 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:6554	79Outperform	JPY 10.00B	8.66	―	4.52%	8.83%	34.55%
JP:7509	79Outperform	JPY 6.90B	4.80	―	3.33%	5.55%	21.45%
JP:5355	64Neutral	JPY 4.47B	10.16	―	2.71%	8.83%	31.80%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:8835	53Neutral	JPY 5.93B	23.80	―	5.25%	-2.09%	-45.27%
JP:6838	48Neutral	JPY 10.39B	20.87	―	0.88%	―	―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:6838 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:6838	Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd.	1139.00	381.30	50.32%
JP:5355	Nippon Crucible Co., Ltd.	665.00	78.23	13.33%
JP:6554	SUS Co., Ltd.	1106.00	-10.35	-0.93%
JP:7509	I. A Group Corporation	4660.00	718.18	18.22%
JP:8835	Taiheiyo Kouhatsu Incorporated	762.00	19.95	2.69%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2026

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis