Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥15.26B
• Dividend Yield: 6.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 162.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: -7.91%
• EPS Growth: 46.90%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,776
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): -14.00
• Shares Outstanding: 41,599,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 150,930
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 162,310
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥367.00 ▼(-3.42%Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily impacted by the company's financial performance and valuation concerns. The company's financial performance is challenged by declining profitability and high leverage, which are major risks. Technical analysis adds to the negative outlook with bearish signals. While the high dividend yield offers some appeal, the negative P/E ratio highlights valuation issues.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd is a leading manufacturer and supplier of precision balls and rollers, utilized in a wide range of industries including automotive, industrial machinery, and electronics. Headquartered in Japan, the company has a global presence with facilities and subsidiaries across several key regions. Tsubaki Nakashima is recognized for its high-quality products and innovative solutions that are integral to the functionality and efficiency of various mechanical components and systems.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of precision balls and rollers. These components are crucial in reducing friction and wear in machinery and are sold to a diverse set of industries such as automotive, where they are used in bearings and other mechanical systems, and electronics, where precision and reliability are critical. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major industrial corporations, ensuring a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Tsubaki Nakashima invests in research and development to innovate and improve product offerings, which helps maintain its competitive edge and attract more business.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd demonstrates a recovering financial trajectory with notable improvements in profitability and cash flow generation in 2024. However, high leverage and past volatility in revenue and margins suggest a cautious outlook. Maintaining profitability and reducing leverage will be key to sustaining financial health.

Income Statement

The company has shown a volatile revenue trend with a significant decline in 2023 compared to 2022, but a recovery in 2024. The gross profit margin decreased to 13.85% in 2024 from 16.38% in 2023. Net profit margin turned positive in 2024 at 1.20% after a negative margin in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement in 2024 but remain below historical highs. Overall, while profitability metrics have improved, they still signal caution.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio remains high, reflecting a leveraged position at approximately 1.51 in 2024. However, the equity ratio has improved to 35.18% from 32.57% in 2023, indicating a strengthening equity base. Return on equity is modest but positive at 1.48% in 2024, showing a recovery from negative returns in the prior year. The balance sheet shows resilience with a strong asset base, though high leverage poses risks.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow turned positive in 2024, reaching ¥1.165 billion, indicating improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 5.34, highlighting strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow indicate volatility. Despite improvements, cash flow stability needs continuous monitoring.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
74.23B	75.92B	80.34B	79.04B	67.93B	52.02B
	Gross Profit
9.77B	10.52B	13.16B	7.76B	13.61B	9.22B
	EBIT
-484.00M	814.00M	5.24B	-9.06B	5.82B	3.61B
	EBITDA
4.55B	4.07B	4.58B	-4.81B	9.13B	6.92B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-552.00M	912.00M	-1.29B	-9.09B	3.55B	1.88B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.73B	23.06B	23.00B	24.12B	32.52B	14.99B
	Total Assets
168.80B	174.72B	166.08B	159.89B	157.17B	130.47B
	Total Debt
91.25B	92.65B	91.32B	87.99B	83.99B	67.44B
	Net Debt
68.52B	69.59B	68.32B	63.87B	51.46B	52.45B
	Total Liabilities
111.68B	113.21B	111.94B	109.76B	103.81B	85.75B
	Stockholders Equity
57.08B	61.47B	54.11B	50.10B	53.34B	44.68B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.76B	1.17B	-3.37B	-9.79B	3.87B	917.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.96B	4.87B	1.41B	-4.14B	6.26B	2.22B
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.27B	-3.80B	-4.89B	-3.50B	-2.28B	-1.27B
	Financing Cash Flow
-6.22B	-1.91B	1.39B	-1.76B	12.95B	-2.75B

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 380.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6464, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 380 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 387.25, below the 50-day MA of 394.34, and below the 200-day MA of 521.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:6464.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5957	77 Outperform	¥20.83B	10.44		3.46%	7.59%	12.32%
6157	70 Outperform	¥17.22B	13.58		4.35%	3.18%	2.22%
5659	69 Neutral	¥33.90B	10.31		5.10%	4.52%	25.35%
6165	68 Neutral	¥10.12B	11.09		5.24%	6.46%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$4.46B	12.18	5.23%	249.77%	4.11%	-12.28%
6480	65 Neutral	¥36.90B	36.70		3.65%	-1.21%	-62.46%
6464	46 Neutral	¥15.26B	17.68		6.58%	-7.91%	46.90%

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Corporate Events

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Strategic Organizational and Leadership Changes

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd announced an organizational reform and leadership changes to strengthen its management and support future growth. The Roller Business Unit in Bosnia will merge with the West Business Unit to create synergies and improve market positioning. Leadership changes include new roles for key executives to enhance communication and operational excellence.

Tsubaki Nakashima Revises Q1 CAPEX Figures, Maintains Full-Year Outlook

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced a correction to its FY2025 Q1 results presentation, specifically adjusting the reported capital expenditure figures from 11.0 to 4.1 billion yen. Despite the initial delays in Q1, the company expects to meet its full-year CAPEX plan, indicating a potential impact on its financial planning and stakeholder expectations.

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Corrections to Q1 2025 Financial Results

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced corrections to its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2025. The adjustments primarily affect the analysis of cash flow, with changes in net cash provided by operating activities and net cash used in investing activities. These corrections may impact stakeholders’ understanding of the company’s financial health and operational efficiency.

Tsubaki Nakashima Faces Declining Financial Performance in Q1 2025

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with sales dropping by 8.5% and operating profit plummeting by 76.2% compared to the previous year. The company has also forecasted a challenging fiscal year ahead, with expected declines in sales and net profit, indicating potential difficulties in maintaining its market position and financial stability.

Tsubaki Nakashima Revises Share Acquisition and Convertible Bond Prices

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. has announced a revision in the exercise price for its 17th Share Acquisition Rights and the conversion price for its 1st Series Unsecured Convertible Bonds with Share Acquisition Rights. This adjustment, effective May 9, 2025, is in accordance with the terms and conditions of the issuance, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and investor relations.

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Leadership Changes for Growth

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. has announced leadership changes to enhance its management organization and drive future growth. Matt Cloward has been appointed as the new Chief Commercial Officer, effective May 12, 2025, to lead global sales activities and improve customer satisfaction. These changes aim to optimize organizational structure and expand market share, positioning the company for sustainable growth.

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Leadership Changes to Strengthen Governance

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced changes in its leadership following the annual Shareholders’ Meeting, with new appointments to the Board of Directors and Executive Officers. These changes are expected to strengthen the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market positioning.

Tsubaki Nakashima Introduces Stock Grant Scheme for Senior Employees

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced the introduction of a stock grant scheme for senior employees to enhance competitiveness and retain talented management. This scheme, structured as an Employee Stock Ownership Plan Trust, aims to provide incentives for improving the company’s medium- to long-term performance and corporate value.

Tsubaki Nakashima Amends Executive Stock Compensation Scheme

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced amendments to its stock compensation scheme for executive officers to better align with global management changes and enhance incentives for sustainable growth. The revised scheme, effective April 2025, will strengthen the linkage between executive compensation and mid- to long-term stock value, aiming to align interests with shareholders and cover non-resident executives in Japan.

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Organizational Reform and Leadership Changes

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd announced a significant organizational reform aimed at enhancing its management structure and revenue base. The Americas and Europe Business Units will merge into a new West Business Unit to create a more agile and efficient organization, improving customer experience and fostering new business opportunities. Additionally, leadership changes will take effect on April 1, 2025, with Yoshio Sugawara and Maurizio De Luca taking on new roles to support this strategic shift.