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TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. (5074) AI Stock Analysis

JP:5074

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:5074)

Select Model
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:JPY 473.00â–²(4.19% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/16/26

The score is primarily held back by financial constraints—especially high leverage and recent negative free cash flow—despite a 2026 rebound in revenue growth and profitability. Technicals add further pressure, with the stock trading below major moving averages and bearish momentum signals. Valuation is reasonable (P/E 16.38) with a ~1.99% yield, but not enough to offset the balance sheet and cash-flow risks.

Positive Factors
Improving Revenue GrowthThe return to meaningful revenue growth indicates stronger operating momentum after a stagnant prior year. If maintained, improved top-line expansion can support greater scale, provide room to absorb fixed costs, and strengthen the company’s ability to rebuild earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High LeverageDebt remains high relative to equity, limiting financial flexibility and increasing the importance of consistent operating performance. Elevated leverage can constrain investment choices, amplify the effect of weaker earnings, and leave less capacity to absorb business volatility or fund expansion internally.

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. (5074) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%JP:5074+31.62%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 32.07B
Dividend Yield
2.10%
Average Volume (3M)
1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.1
Beta (1Y)
0.79
Revenue Growth
39.62%
EPS Growth
939.82%
Country
Japan
Employees
526
Sector
Utilities
Sector Strength
66
Industry
Renewable Utilities

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tess Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates within the engineering and energy supply industries. The company is engaged in the entire process of project development, from engineering and procurement to the construction of facilities focused on energy efficiency...

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance improved in 2026 with stronger revenue growth (8.19%) and a rebound in net margin (~4.15%), but the overall profile is constrained by high leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.78x) and weak cash conversion, with free cash flow still negative in 2026 (~-1.3B) and 2025 (~-1.0B). Earnings durability is also reduced by margin volatility across the period.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

45Neutral

Cash Flow

34Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue51.22B51.22B36.68B30.64B34.41B34.25B
Gross Profit10.42B10.42B7.45B6.55B10.61B7.54B
EBITDA12.46B12.46B7.10B5.63B10.03B6.94B
Net Income2.12B2.12B205.00M1.19B3.59B1.99B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets164.95B164.95B151.26B119.13B94.09B100.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.14B19.14B22.88B18.34B15.36B26.04B
Total Debt92.79B92.79B92.77B65.64B57.92B70.55B
Total Liabilities112.52B112.52B108.40B77.33B65.75B77.91B
Stockholders Equity52.12B52.12B42.56B41.51B28.25B22.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-1.32B-1.05B-15.18B-979.00M-2.88B
Operating Cash Flow05.10B7.82B-42.00M13.83B431.00M
Investing Cash Flow0-7.31B-9.18B-15.49B-16.03B-4.47B
Financing Cash Flow0-1.45B3.79B18.44B-5.19B17.10B

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price454.00

Price Trends

50DMA557.18Negative
100DMA690.96Negative
200DMA669.10Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-30.21Negative
RSI32.10Neutral
STOCH49.27Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5074, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 454.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 492.50, below the 50-day MA of 557.18, and below the 200-day MA of 669.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -30.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5074.

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

JP:5074 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:9514JP:951471OutperformJPY 7.18B5.86―2.41%17.83%70.40%
Sector *66Neutral$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
JP:1407JP:140760NeutralJPY 80.49B9.77―3.54%19.89%50.08%
JP:9519JP:951957NeutralJPY 65.52B25.652.20%―14.29%-21.04%
JP:9513JP:951349NeutralJPY 718.57B13.923.56%2.45%4.40%-51.15%
JP:9517JP:951748NeutralJPY 59.41B9.37―2.89%3.34%1621.01%
JP:5074JP:507447NeutralJPY 32.03B15.08―2.10%39.62%939.82%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%JP:5074JP:9513JP:9519JP:1407JP:9514JP:9517Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:5074 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:5074TESS Holdings Co., Ltd.454.00107.0830.87%
JP:9513Electric Power Development Co4075.001214.2942.45%
JP:9519RENOVA 721.00-118.00-14.06%
JP:1407West Holdings Corporation1980.00552.4638.70%
JP:9514EF-ON, Inc.332.00-54.28-14.05%
JP:9517eREX Co., Ltd.760.00103.8615.83%

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TESS Engineering Secures ¥9.24 Billion Syndicated Loan With Financial Covenants

Oct 14, 2026

TESS Holdings announced that its consolidated subsidiary, TESS Engineering, has entered into a syndicated commitment line arranged by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to secure short-term working capital. Under this agreement, TESS Engineering is...

TESS Holdings Corrects Employee Allotments in Restricted Stock Issuance

Sep 11, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. has corrected figures related to a previously announced issuance of new shares under its restricted stock compensation program for employees. The revision stems from a misclassification of certain personnel between the parent...

TESS Holdings Corrects Employee Allocation in Restricted Stock Issuance

Sep 11, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. has corrected details in its previously announced issuance of new shares as restricted stock compensation for employees, after discovering classification errors between employees of the parent company and its subsidiaries. The...

TESS Holdings Subsidiary Secures ¥9.24 Billion Syndicated Loan with Covenants

Sep 11, 2026

TESS Holdings announced that its consolidated subsidiary, TESS Engineering, has entered into a syndicated commitment line agreement to secure working capital, arranged by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Under this framework, the subsidiary has i...

TESS Holdings Corrects ESG Education Investment Data in FY 2026 Materials

Sep 9, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. has announced corrections to its previously released financial results meeting materials for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. The revisions concern an error in the calculation of per capita investment in education for full...

TESS Holdings Reshapes Board With Director Reappointments and Chairman’s Retirement

Aug 25, 2026

TESS Holdings has resolved to propose the reappointment of three key directors, including Representative Director and President Kazuki Yamamoto, Executive Managing Director Toshihiro Takasaki, and Director Mayumi Yoshida, who oversees ESG and women&#...

TESS Holdings Proposes Higher Year-End Dividend and Lifts Payout Forecast

Aug 25, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. has resolved to propose a year-end dividend of 9.54 yen per share for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with a total planned distribution of 673,934,926 yen from retained earnings and an effective payment date of September...

TESS Holdings Details Comprehensive Decarbonization and Energy-Saving Portfolio

Aug 20, 2026

TESS Holdings has outlined its vision to become a leading company in decarbonization, emphasizing a comprehensive suite of technologies and services designed to maximize energy savings for its customers. The financial results meeting materials highli...

TESS Holdings Subsidiary Secures ¥10.78 Billion Syndicated Loan for Working Capital

Aug 17, 2026

TESS Engineering Co., Ltd., a core subsidiary of TESS Holdings Co., Ltd., has secured a new syndicated commitment line arranged by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to support its working capital needs. The Osaka-based engineering firm specializes...

TESS Holdings Subsidiary Cancels ¥4 Billion Grid Battery EPC Contract

Aug 14, 2026

TESS Holdings said its subsidiary TESS Engineering will cancel a roughly ¥4.0 billion EPC construction contract for a power storage plant in Kumamoto, Japan, after the customer DEI Battery Fund Alpha LLC judged the project no longer commercially...

TESS Holdings Raises Dividend Forecast as Adjusted Profits Improve

Aug 14, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd., a Prime Market-listed Japanese company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under code 5074, prioritizes a stable management base and future business development while emphasizing shareholder returns. Its dividend policy seeks to main...

TESS Holdings Revises Expense Classification in TX2030 Plan Without Changing Profit Targets

Aug 14, 2026

TESS Holdings Co., Ltd. is listed on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange under code 5074 and operates across multiple renewable energy segments. Its businesses include power storage plant EPC, solar power development and commissioned EPC, bi...

TESS Holdings Boosts Sales on Storage Battery EPC, Plans Further Investment Despite Profit Dip

Aug 14, 2026

TESS Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥64 billion for the year ended June 30, 2026, up 25% year on year, with higher gross profit but lower operating and ordinary profit as margins contracted and net profit attributable to owners fell...

TESS Holdings Posts Earnings Surge but Sees Profit Moderation Ahead

Aug 14, 2026

TESS Holdings reported a strong rebound in earnings for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with net sales up 39.6% to ¥51.2 billion and operating profit more than doubling to ¥5.3 billion. Profit attributable to owners of parent surged to...

TESS Completes Allocation of Sustainability Financing to Major Renewable Projects

Aug 7, 2026

TESS Holdings has fully allocated all funds raised through its sustainability-linked financing instruments, including listing-related proceeds, a sustainability rights offering, and a green loan, totaling more than ¥43 billion. The capital was d...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2026