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Lion
(4912)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
¥2,071.00
▲(10.37% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (margin recovery and conservative leverage) and supportive price trends. It is moderated by only moderate valuation support and earnings-call risks tied to increased raw-material cost pressure and execution risk from price increases, while technical indicators also look somewhat stretched.
Positive Factors
Margin recovery
Meaningful operating and net-margin expansion indicates better cost control, product mix, and execution. Sustained improvement would provide greater resilience against input inflation and support stronger earnings conversion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Raw-material cost exposure
The sharply larger cost burden shows that commodity inflation remains a material threat to margins. Lion expects offsets from pricing and mix, but incomplete or delayed recovery would pressure earnings and reduce the durability of recent margin gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin recovery
Meaningful operating and net-margin expansion indicates better cost control, product mix, and execution. Sustained improvement would provide greater resilience against input inflation and support stronger earnings conversion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lion (4912) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥512.81B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth6.21%
EPS Growth37.97%
CountryJP
Employees8,346
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)104.18
Shares Outstanding279,782,750
10 Day Avg. Volume1,063,460
30 Day Avg. Volume1,106,010
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.54
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio20.20
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,972.50Price Target Upside5.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)91.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥437.23B
Lion Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, and established in 1891, Lion Corporation is a global manufacturer and distributor of an extensive range of consumer and industrial products. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Consumer Produc...
How the Company Makes Money
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Lion Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear set of operating achievements — double-digit operating profit growth, EBITDA margin expansion, strong Oral Healthcare performance, and visible recovery in overseas markets — while candidly acknowledging a larger-than-expected raw-material cost headwind, execution and volume risk from price increases, and higher near-term SG&A/one-time costs. Management provided concrete offset plans (price pass-through, mix shift toward high-value products, cost reductions and SG&A efficiency) and maintained full-year guidance and dividend policy. Given the magnitude of positive operating momentum and the detailed mitigation plan for headwinds, the tone is constructive and confidence-oriented, though execution risk and external uncertainties remain material.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated results
Q2 net sales +8.7% year-on-year; core operating income +21.3% year-on-year; EBITDA margin rose to 11.8% (up 1.1 percentage points YoY). Management reported a JPY 2.7 billion YoY increase in core operating income for the period and noted improved momentum in gross profit.
Negative Updates
Escalating raw-material cost pressure
Initial assumed negative impact from raw material costs revised from negative JPY 1 billion to negative JPY 7 billion for the full year (additional negative JPY 6 billion); JPY 1 billion already realized in H1 and roughly JPY 5 billion expected to hit in H2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated results
Q2 net sales +8.7% year-on-year; core operating income +21.3% year-on-year; EBITDA margin rose to 11.8% (up 1.1 percentage points YoY). Management reported a JPY 2.7 billion YoY increase in core operating income for the period and noted improved momentum in gross profit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lion reiterated its unchanged full‑year guidance and commitment to hit the targets set at the start of the year, after reporting Q2 net sales +8.7% YoY and core operating income +21.3% YoY (H1 core OI up JPY 2.7bn), with EBITDA margin at 11.8% (+1.1ppt YoY). Management flagged a revised full‑year raw‑materials hit of -JPY 7bn (up from -1bn), of which -JPY 1bn occurred in H1 and -JPY 5bn is expected in H2, and said it will offset roughly 80% (~JPY 4bn) of the JPY 5bn H2 impact via gross‑profit gains (JPY 1bn from a shift to high‑value products/cost cuts and JPY 3bn from price increases—split ~JPY 0.5bn in Q3 and ~JPY 2.5bn in Q4, with price carry‑through into next year). Key business metrics supporting the plan include Oral Healthcare: group‑wide H1 growth >10% (Japan Oral Healthcare +9.6%, high‑end toothpaste >¥1,000 up 131% YoY, SYSTEMA ~1.4x Apr–Jun), Consumer Products sales +1.6% with a 0.4ppt margin gain, Home Care ex‑REED +2.9%, and overseas recoveries (China Apr–Jun +14–15% vs Jan–Mar -21.6%, Southeast/South Asia & Oceania Apr–Jun ex‑FX +11.9%, Northeast Asia Apr–Jun +11.5%, total Apr–Jun +16.1%). Lion also reiterated plans to strengthen profitability (targeting core OI rising from JPY 35bn this year toward JPY 40bn next year) and to pursue the 11th consecutive annual dividend increase.Lion Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 439.47B | 422.09B | 412.94B | 402.77B | 389.87B | 366.23B |
| Gross Profit | 205.09B | 193.92B | 188.78B | 180.60B | 174.61B | 179.10B |
| EBITDA | 64.60B | 61.79B | 54.17B | 43.35B | 49.14B | 48.48B |
| Net Income | 28.82B | 27.59B | 21.20B | 14.63B | 21.94B | 23.76B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 532.80B | 528.60B | 497.17B | 486.36B | 469.28B | 428.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.40B | 88.09B | 102.24B | 85.53B | 101.08B | 97.25B |
| Total Debt | 31.83B | 54.44B | 29.74B | 30.34B | 32.17B | 8.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 174.23B | 180.17B | 181.47B | 188.23B | 190.11B | 163.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 332.76B | 322.73B | 293.72B | 280.32B | 264.25B | 251.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.41B | 22.57B | 25.60B | 6.34B | 23.47B | -17.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.34B | 40.65B | 43.66B | 30.07B | 41.96B | 19.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.98B | -43.37B | -7.19B | -34.37B | -19.54B | -34.18B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.29B | -12.50B | -21.67B | -12.19B | -19.82B | -10.22B |
Lion Technical Analysis
Positive
1876.50
Price Trends
1748.48
Positive
1668.11
Positive
1660.20
Positive
Market Momentum
46.25
Positive
61.83
Neutral
55.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4912, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1876.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1833.62, above the 50-day MA of 1748.48, and above the 200-day MA of 1660.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 46.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4912.
Lion Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | ¥721.09B | 21.19 | 12.11% | 1.82% | 9.67% | -2.92% | |
77 Outperform | ¥3.29T | 24.43 | 12.16% | 2.36% | 6.19% | 21.69% | |
76 Outperform | ¥512.81B | 18.14 | 8.90% | 1.74% | 6.21% | 37.97% | |
76 Outperform | ¥1.81T | 26.53 | 7.73% | 2.09% | 0.29% | -22.26% | |
68 Neutral | ¥334.60B | 24.38 | 3.71% | 2.42% | 3.22% | 358.24% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | ¥421.99B | 260.17 | 1.46% | 1.87% | 3.71% | -86.23% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
JP:4912
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Lion Corporate Events
Lion lifts first-half earnings on oral care and overseas consolidation
Aug 7, 2026
Lion Corporation reported first-half 2026 results showing net sales of ¥216.83 billion, up 8.7% year on year, driven by strong oral healthcare sales in Japan and contributions from consolidated subsidiaries Merap Lion in Vietnam and PNB in Au...
Lion Posts Strong H1 2026 Profits but Sees Full-Year Earnings Dip
Aug 7, 2026
Lion Corporation reported strong results for the first half of 2026, with net sales rising 8.7% year on year to ¥216.8 billion and operating profit surging 54.7%, supported by a 21.3% increase in core operating income. Profit attributable to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.