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Otsuka Holdings Co
(4578)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
¥13,736.00
▲(10.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—improving profitability, steady revenue growth, and very low leverage. Offsetting this is weaker cash conversion versus earnings and only moderately positive technicals (longer-term uptrend but near-term softness). Valuation is reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Steady Revenue Growth
Consistent top-line expansion indicates continued demand across Otsuka’s pharmaceutical and consumer-health businesses. Sustained revenue growth provides a durable base for operating leverage, product investment, and broader global commercialization.
Negative Factors
Weak Earnings-to-Cash Conversion
Operating cash flow consistently lagging reported earnings raises questions about the timing and quality of profit conversion. Working-capital needs or other timing effects could limit liquidity available for reinvestment, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady Revenue Growth
Consistent top-line expansion indicates continued demand across Otsuka’s pharmaceutical and consumer-health businesses. Sustained revenue growth provides a durable base for operating leverage, product investment, and broader global commercialization.
Read all positive factors
Otsuka Holdings Co (4578) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥6.32T
Dividend Yield1.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth9.11%
EPS Growth0.77%
CountryJP
Employees37,758
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)768.34
Shares Outstanding542,988,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,048,520
30 Day Avg. Volume1,432,630
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio14.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥15,088.89Price Target Upside21.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)663.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.70T
Otsuka Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide. It develops pharmaceutical products in the fields of psychiatry, neurology, oncology, cardiovascular and renal system, aut...
How the Company Makes Money
Otsuka Holdings makes money mainly by selling products across two core segments: (1) Pharmaceuticals and (2) Nutraceuticals/consumer health. In Pharmaceuticals, revenue is generated from the commercialization of prescription drugs developed in-hou...
Otsuka Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2024
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in revenue and business profit, driven by pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Forecasts have been revised upward, and there is an acquisition to further enhance drug discovery capabilities. However, there were some negatives, such as impairment losses and a decrease in certain revenues. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong performance and optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Negative Updates
Impairment Loss Impact
Operating profit was affected by an impairment loss on AVP-786, although net profit still increased by 5.1%.
Read all updates
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Revenue and Business Profit Growth
Revenue increased by 17.0% to JPY 1,108.9 billion and business profit increased by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion year-on-year, led by strong sales in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for 4578.T, the executives provided detailed guidance reflecting significant growth in both their pharmaceutical and nutraceutical segments. Revenue increased by 17.0% year-on-year to JPY 1,108.9 billion, while business profit surged by 37.8% to JPY 213.6 billion, driven primarily by strong sales of Core 2 pharmaceutical products like ABILIFY MAINTENA and JYNARQUE, and nutraceuticals, particularly in the For Women’s Health category. Despite an impairment loss on AVP-786, net profit rose by 5.1% due to finance income. The company also revised its full-year forecast upwards, with revenue now expected to reach JPY 2,315 billion and business profit JPY 390 billion. Nutraceutical revenue saw a notable increase, achieving over a 20% growth rate to JPY 271.8 billion, fueled by the expansion of products like Bonafide and Nature Made. Additionally, the company announced plans for share repurchases amounting to JPY 50 billion as part of their shareholder return policy.Otsuka Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.62T | 2.47T | 2.33T | 2.02T | 1.74T | 1.50T |
| Gross Profit | 1.88T | 1.77T | 1.67T | 1.41T | 1.17T | 1.00T |
| EBITDA | 635.49B | 611.24B | 522.98B | 385.37B | 279.83B | 231.43B |
| Net Income | 405.23B | 363.15B | 343.12B | 121.62B | 133.91B | 125.46B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.40T | 4.20T | 3.74T | 3.36T | 3.10T | 2.82T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 469.55B | 534.64B | 426.17B | 513.34B | 471.63B | 410.68B |
| Total Debt | 194.20B | 227.97B | 189.38B | 214.19B | 194.16B | 212.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.09T | 1.10T | 961.08B | 924.92B | 840.26B | 775.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.24T | 3.03T | 2.73T | 2.39T | 2.23T | 2.01T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 320.85B | 315.74B | 259.08B | 192.50B | 150.90B | 176.41B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 407.96B | 403.58B | 354.64B | 283.23B | 211.85B | 228.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -204.85B | -162.56B | -268.27B | -190.63B | -81.58B | -95.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.08B | -136.37B | -186.89B | -60.17B | -95.47B | -95.84B |
Otsuka Holdings Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | ¥4.24T | 11.56 | 20.41% | 3.31% | 16.93% | 347.13% | |
78 Outperform | ¥11.18T | 23.72 | 24.02% | 3.13% | 12.25% | 19.19% | |
75 Outperform | ¥6.32T | 15.66 | 13.24% | 1.41% | 9.11% | 0.77% | |
72 Outperform | ¥1.32T | 31.27 | 4.77% | 3.41% | 6.73% | -15.79% | |
64 Neutral | ¥9.18T | 50.37 | 2.40% | 3.48% | 3.10% | -218.63% | |
58 Neutral | ¥5.08T | 21.15 | 14.44% | 2.79% | 15.51% | -9.47% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Otsuka Holdings Co Corporate Events
Otsuka’s Zipalertinib Combo Hits Phase 3 Goal in Targeted Lung Cancer Trial
Aug 12, 2026
Taiho Pharmaceutical and Taiho Oncology, key units of Otsuka Holdings, alongside Cullinan Therapeutics, reported that their global Phase 3 REZILIENT3 trial in first-line EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation non-small cell lung cancer met its primary en...
Otsuka’s VOYXACT Phase 3 Data Show Sustained Kidney Function Stabilization in IgA Nephropathy
Aug 3, 2026
Otsuka reported new Phase 3 VISIONARY data showing its IgA nephropathy drug VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab-szsi) stabilized kidney function decline to near physiologic levels over two years, with an annualized eGFR slope of +0.3 mL/min/1.73 m²/year v...
Otsuka Holdings Continues Share Buybacks Under ¥50 Billion Authorization
Aug 3, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has continued its share repurchase program authorized by its board in February 2026, buying back 317,900 common shares for approximately ¥3.52 billion between July 1 and July 31 through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exch...
Otsuka Lifts 2026 Earnings Outlook and Raises Dividends on Strong Drug Sales
Jul 31, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has sharply raised its full-year 2026 consolidated forecast after strong first-half results, driven by steady growth of key drugs REXULTI, LONSURF and VOYXACT and delayed generic competition for JYNARQUE in the U.S. and ABILIFY MAI...
Otsuka Holdings Delivers Strong Half-Year Earnings and Lifts 2026 Dividend Forecast
Jul 31, 2026
Otsuka Holdings reported strong results for the six-month period ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 12.8% year-on-year to ¥1,332.4 billion and business profit up 17.3%, supported by higher operating profit and a 24.3% jump in profit att...
Otsuka Lifts First-Half 2026 Earnings Forecast on Strong Drug Sales and Weak Yen
Jul 27, 2026
Otsuka Holdings revised its consolidated forecast for the first half of fiscal 2026, projecting revenue of ¥1,332 billion and a sharp rise in profit attributable to owners of the company to ¥215 billion. The upgrade represents increases ...
Otsuka’s VOYXACT Achieves Key Phase 3 Success in IgA Nephropathy, Bolstering Long-Term Growth Strategy
Jul 1, 2026
Otsuka announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 VISIONARY trial of VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab-szsi) in adults with IgA nephropathy, showing statistically significant stabilization and evidence of improvement in kidney function over two year...
Otsuka Holdings Advances Share Buyback, Repurchases ¥29.9 Billion in Stock
Jul 1, 2026
Otsuka Holdings has continued executing its share repurchase program authorized by its board in February 2026, buying back 736,700 common shares for about ¥7.75 billion between June 1 and June 30 via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchan...
Otsuka’s VOYXACT Shows Kidney Function Preservation in Phase 3 IgA Nephropathy Trial
Jun 4, 2026
Otsuka reported positive interim Phase 3 data showing that VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab-szsi) preserved kidney function over 12 months in adults with primary IgA nephropathy at risk of disease progression. In the VISIONARY trial, patients on VOYXACT had...
Otsuka Advances ¥50 Billion Share Buyback, Repurchasing Over 2 Million Shares
Jun 2, 2026
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. has been executing a share repurchase program authorized by its board in February 2026, allowing buybacks of up to 7,000,000 common shares, or 1.33% of outstanding shares excluding treasury stock, for a total of up to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.