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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co
(4502)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
¥6,252.00
▲(7.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by stable fundamentals and cash generation (with improving leverage), supported by generally positive technical momentum and a guidance-maintaining earnings call with meaningful pipeline/launch milestones. The largest offset is valuation, with a very high P/E despite only modest bottom-line profitability and low ROE.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Substantial operating and free cash flow gives Takeda internal funding for research, launches, debt service, and shareholder returns. This financial capacity supports strategic investment without relying entirely on external financing, although recent cash-flow softness warrants monitoring.
Negative Factors
Mature Portfolio and Loss-of-Exclusivity Pressure
Generic competition and loss of exclusivity can structurally reduce sales from established medicines, creating a recurring replacement burden. Takeda must successfully convert pipeline candidates and launches into commercial products to prevent mature-portfolio declines from weakening growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Substantial operating and free cash flow gives Takeda internal funding for research, launches, debt service, and shareholder returns. This financial capacity supports strategic investment without relying entirely on external financing, although recent cash-flow softness warrants monitoring.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥9.33T
Dividend Yield3.39%
Average Volume (3M)3.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)52.2
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth3.10%
EPS Growth-218.63%
CountryJP
Employees47,029
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)114.22
Shares Outstanding1,602,141,400
10 Day Avg. Volume4,169,930
30 Day Avg. Volume3,865,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.98
P/FCF Ratio11.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥6,966.67Price Target Upside19.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)124.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥4.69T
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a global biopharmaceutical enterprise engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and out-licensing of various medical products. The company's operations span Japan, the United States, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda makes money primarily by selling branded prescription medicines and biopharmaceutical products to healthcare wholesalers, hospitals, pharmacies, governments, and other healthcare providers globally. Its revenue model is largely product-driv...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of modest near-term CER declines and cash-flow timing effects against substantial positive developments: strong FX-driven reported results, confirmation of transformation-led funding for launches, multiple imminent regulatory and commercial milestones (ORZEYFUL approval in China; rusfertide priority review; superior zasocitinib data), and a robust late-stage pipeline with several programs moving to pivotal stages. While Q1 contained some one-time impacts, transitional investment effects and product-specific headwinds, the combination of pipeline momentum, launch readiness and a maintained full-year financial outlook suggests the company is positioned to convert R&D progress into revenue growth later in the year.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth at Actual FX
Reported revenue JPY 1.22 trillion, up 10.2% on an actual FX basis (but -0.5% at constant exchange rates (CER)); FX tailwind added JPY 118.2 billion to revenue.
Negative Updates
Underlying Revenue and Profit Slightly Negative at CER
At constant exchange rates, core revenue declined 0.5% year-over-year and core operating profit also declined 0.5% at CER, driven by investment behind upcoming launches and headwinds from mature products.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth at Actual FX
Reported revenue JPY 1.22 trillion, up 10.2% on an actual FX basis (but -0.5% at constant exchange rates (CER)); FX tailwind added JPY 118.2 billion to revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda said Q1 results keep them on track for unchanged FY‑26 guidance, reporting revenue of JPY 1.22 trillion (+10.2% at actual FX, -0.5% at CER), core operating profit JPY 358.9 billion (+11.5% actual FX, -0.5% CER), reported operating profit JPY 201.4 billion, core EPS JPY 154 (‑11.8% CER) and reported EPS JPY 72, while FX added JPY 118.2 billion to the top line; they reaffirm full‑year adjusted free cash flow of JPY 650–750 billion, maintain a ~65% gross margin outlook, and target improving ROE to above 5% as they fund growth investments (including a USD 200 million payment to Protagonist) with transformation savings — operationally core in‑line brands (58% of revenue) grew 2.3% CER, new launches (4% of revenue) grew 22.6% CER, ENTYVIO grew ~4% CER, and the company expects US and Japan launches of ORZEYFUL and rusfertide in H2 2026 (rusfertide PDUFA in August) and zasocitinib in H1 2027.Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.62T | 4.51T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T |
| Gross Profit | 2.87T | 2.30T | 2.46T | 2.32T | 2.30T | 2.04T |
| EBITDA | 1.29T | 1.34T | 1.13T | 927.95B | 1.18T | 1.04T |
| Net Income | 180.72B | 191.76B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.66T | 15.45T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 527.58B | 595.05B | 385.11B | 457.80B | 533.53B | 849.70B |
| Total Debt | 4.94T | 4.88T | 5.09T | 5.46T | 4.86T | 4.81T |
| Total Liabilities | 8.10T | 7.68T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.56T | 7.77T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 700.26B | 762.71B | 761.70B | 464.90B | 736.56B | 897.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 894.89B | 938.71B | 962.49B | 640.32B | 877.22B | 1.02T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -434.00B | -387.80B | -385.36B | -488.21B | -615.72B | -204.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -393.18B | -375.44B | -638.44B | -254.04B | -600.59B | -962.06B |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis
Positive
5813.00
Price Trends
5641.18
Positive
5369.63
Positive
5297.29
Positive
Market Momentum
39.51
Positive
58.73
Neutral
61.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5813 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5732.05, above the 50-day MA of 5641.18, and above the 200-day MA of 5297.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 39.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Risk Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Organizational changes and leadership transitions may cause near-term uncertainty and risk and may not provide the expected benefits on the expected timeline. Q1, 2026
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | ¥713.94B | 5.80 | 35.89% | 2.60% | 14.09% | 488.06% | |
73 Outperform | ¥2.41T | 9.09 | 16.46% | 2.70% | 27.87% | 47.03% | |
73 Outperform | ¥227.12B | 7.27 | ― | 3.64% | 12.23% | 3.35% | |
72 Outperform | ¥1.30T | 31.01 | 4.77% | 3.44% | 6.73% | -15.79% | |
64 Neutral | ¥9.33T | 52.21 | 2.40% | 3.39% | 3.10% | -218.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4502
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events
Takeda’s Zasocitinib Wins FDA Priority Review in Bid to Redefine Oral Psoriasis Care
Sep 14, 2026
Takeda has secured U.S. FDA Priority Review for its New Drug Application for zasocitinib, an oral, highly selective TYK2 inhibitor for adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, following pivotal Phase 3 trials in nearly 3,000 patients that ...
Takeda Wins FDA Nod for First-in-Class Polycythemia Vera Therapy MIMRYLO
Aug 29, 2026
Takeda has secured U.S. FDA approval for MIMRYLO (rusfertide), a first-in-class hepcidin mimetic for treating erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera, a blood cancer affecting about 90,000 people in the U.S. The drug is designed to control...
Takeda Wins First-in-Class U.S. Approval for Orexin Therapy in Narcolepsy Type 1
Aug 5, 2026
Takeda has secured U.S. FDA approval for ORZEYFUL, an oral orexin receptor 2 agonist and the first and only therapy designed to treat the underlying cause of narcolepsy type 1 in adults. Unlike existing drugs that mainly address individual symptom...
Takeda Delivers Strong Q1 Revenue Growth But Flags Core EPS Decline
Jul 30, 2026
Takeda reported revenue of ¥1,219.9 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, up 10.2% year on year, with operating profit rising 9.1% and core operating profit increasing 11.5%. Net profit attributable to owners fell 8.9% to ¥11...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.