Takeda Pharmaceutical Co (4502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.00T
• Dividend Yield: 4.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 9.83%
• EPS Growth: 15.49%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 49,281
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 15.15
• Shares Outstanding: 1,590,949,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,048,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,717,430
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,325.42
• Price Target Upside: 20.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

Takeda Pharmaceutical's strong financial foundation and robust cash flow management underpin its stability, despite facing profitability challenges from declining profit margins and ROE. The stock's valuation is high, but the dividend yield offers a compensatory benefit. The recent earnings call highlights both strengths in growth products and strategic pipeline advancements, yet acknowledges the financial strain from loss of exclusivity and competition. Overall, the stock is positioned moderately well within its industry, with a mix of opportunities and challenges ahead.

Positive Factors

Earnings Forecast

Takeda revised up full-year forecast, raising revenues from ¥4,480bn to ¥4,590bn and Core OP from ¥1,050bn to ¥1,150bn.

Product Launches

Successful launches for late-stage pipeline programs contribute to the raised price objective.

Share Buyback

Takeda announced a JPY100Bn share buyback, a surprising positive move.

Negative Factors

Impairment Loss

Takeda booked a ¥21.5bn impairment loss for intangible assets stemming from the discontinuation of development of soticlestat.

Patent Expiry

Ongoing impact is anticipated from Vyvanse's loss of exclusivity in future forecasts.

Sales Performance

Entyvio’s sales were lower than expected due to a one-time net-gross adjustment.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Takeda makes money primarily through the development, production, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue streams are driven by its diverse portfolio of prescription drugs and therapies, which are sold globally. Key revenue-generating products include treatments in oncology, rare diseases, and gastroenterology. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other biotech and pharmaceutical companies to enhance its research and development efforts, expand its product pipeline, and accelerate the commercialization of new treatments. The company's earnings are also supported by investments in cutting-edge technologies and innovation that facilitate the discovery and development of new therapeutic solutions.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Breakdown
Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T	3.29T
	Gross Profit
2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T	2.20T
	EBIT
214.07B	490.50B	460.84B	509.27B	100.41B
	EBITDA
874.60B	1.18T	1.18T	983.72B	880.33B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B	44.24B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
457.80B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T	653.44B
	Total Assets
15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T	12.82T
	Total Debt
4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T	5.09T
	Net Debt
4.39T	3.85T	3.50T	3.67T	4.46T
	Total Liabilities
7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T	8.09T
	Stockholders Equity
7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T	4.72T
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B	452.04B
	Operating Cash Flow
716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T	669.75B
	Investing Cash Flow
-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B	292.12B
	Financing Cash Flow
-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T	-1.01T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4419.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4419 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4230.45, above the 50-day MA of 4304.37, and above the 200-day MA of 4127.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4502.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4502	68 Neutral	¥7.00T	33.49	2.87%	4.31%	9.83%	15.49%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.24B	3.76	-41.88%	2.85%	17.01%	0.78%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Corporate Events

Takeda Completes Share Repurchase to Optimize Capital Structure

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has completed the acquisition of 11,823,500 of its own shares, amounting to a cost of JPY 49,977,956,800, as part of a resolution made by its Board of Directors. This move, executed through an open-market repurchase via a trust bank, is part of a broader strategy to acquire up to 28.5 million shares, reflecting Takeda’s efforts to optimize its capital structure and potentially increase shareholder value.

Takeda Updates on Share Repurchase Progress

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced an update on its share repurchase program, acquiring 4,513,800 shares of common stock at a cost of JPY 20,144,679,100 between March 1 and March 31, 2025. This acquisition is part of a broader plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 28.5 million shares, with a total acquisition cost of up to JPY 100 billion, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

Takeda Proposes Re-election of Directors Ahead of Leadership Transition

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced its intention to propose the re-election of all current directors, excluding Audit and Supervisory Committee Members, at its upcoming 149th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. This decision reflects the company’s strategy to maintain continuity in its leadership as it prepares for a significant leadership transition in 2026, when Julie Kim will succeed Christophe Weber as CEO. This move is expected to ensure stability and continued focus on its strategic goals, impacting its operations and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.

Takeda and Protagonist Report Positive Phase 3 Results for Rusfertide in Polycythemia Vera

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company and Protagonist Therapeutics announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 VERIFY study of rusfertide in patients with polycythemia vera. The study met its primary and all four key secondary endpoints, demonstrating significant efficacy and a favorable safety profile. This development strengthens Takeda’s position in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the treatment of rare blood disorders, and could have implications for patients and healthcare providers seeking new treatment options.

Takeda Updates on Share Repurchase Progress

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. has announced an update on its acquisition of own shares, acquiring 7,029,800 shares at a cost of JPY 29,833,229,600 between February 17 and February 28, 2025. This acquisition is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 28.5 million shares, with a total acquisition cost of up to JPY 100 billion, scheduled to be completed by May 31, 2025. This strategic move is expected to impact the company’s market positioning and shareholder value.