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Sosei Group
(4565)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,098.00
▼(-0.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
Overall score reflects a major disconnect between weak reported financial performance/consistency (losses and volatile cash flows) and a much stronger near-term operational narrative from the latest earnings call (return to operating profit, product growth, and milestone momentum). Technicals are also a headwind with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profit Turnaround
The return to operating profit alongside strong revenue growth indicates improving operating leverage and execution. If product sales and milestone activity persist, this could support a more durable earnings base than the loss-making periods of 2023–2025.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses and Weak Returns
Sustained net and operating losses show that high gross margins have not yet translated into reliable shareholder returns. Continued investment in discovery and dependence on major program events could keep earnings volatile and constrain financial self-sufficiency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profit Turnaround
The return to operating profit alongside strong revenue growth indicates improving operating leverage and execution. If product sales and milestone activity persist, this could support a more durable earnings base than the loss-making periods of 2023–2025.
Read all positive factors
Sosei Group (4565) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥102.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)945.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth7.12%
EPS Growth-137.21%
CountryJP
Employees354
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-86.36
Shares Outstanding92,614,160
10 Day Avg. Volume1,166,890
30 Day Avg. Volume945,556
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.52
P/FCF Ratio-23.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥2,000.00Price Target Upside80.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)41.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥40.33B
Sosei Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd., established in Tokyo, Japan, in 1990, is a biopharmaceutical enterprise focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of pharmaceutical solutions. The company's operations extend across multiple international...
How the Company Makes Money
Sosei Group primarily makes money by discovering and developing drug candidates and then partnering (out-licensing) those programs to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Under these collaboration and licensing arrangements, the company typ...
Sosei Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: double-digit revenue growth, a move from IFRS loss to profit, substantial milestone receipts, clear product-level growth (notably PIVLAZ and QUVIVIQ), clinical and commercial validations (vamorolone data and Centessa/Lilly transaction), and an ambitious AI/GPCR discovery strategy with concrete efficiency targets. The principal risks emphasized were milestone revenue lumpiness, dependence on out-licensing/partners to advance key clinical assets, inventory-driven variability for partner-sold products, and execution/competitive risk for discovery programs. Overall, the positives — sustained revenue growth, return to profitability, multiple partner milestones, and concrete platform and pipeline roadmaps — materially outweigh the highlighted risks, which are primarily execution- and timing-related rather than reflective of deteriorating operating performance.Positive Updates
Revenue and Return to Profit
Total revenue grew 25% year-over-year to JPY 18.9 billion (from JPY 15.1 billion). IFRS operating profit turned from a loss of JPY 2.8 billion to a profit of JPY 1.9 billion; core operating profit expanded markedly (company-stated increase from JPY 364 million to ~JPY 6.5 billion).
Negative Updates
Milestone-Dependent Platform Revenue Is Lumpy
Platform profitability remains heavily dependent on partner milestone timing and therefore volatile; core operating profit showed concentration in Q1 and a slight decline vs Q1 when milestone receipts were concentrated.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Return to Profit
Total revenue grew 25% year-over-year to JPY 18.9 billion (from JPY 15.1 billion). IFRS operating profit turned from a loss of JPY 2.8 billion to a profit of JPY 1.9 billion; core operating profit expanded markedly (company-stated increase from JPY 364 million to ~JPY 6.5 billion).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Nxera is moving from investment to delivery with a heavy set of numeric targets: H1 FY2026 revenue rose 25% to JPY 18.9bn, milestone revenue grew from JPY 5bn to JPY 8bn and product sales from JPY 7.5bn to JPY 9.9bn (net product sales JPY 9.9bn, 51% of a >JPY 19.5bn full‑year target); IFRS operating profit turned from a JPY 2.8bn loss to a JPY 1.9bn profit and core OP expanded from JPY 364m to JPY 6.5bn. Product guidance includes PIVLAZ H1 cumulative sales JPY 6.3bn (Q2 JPY 3.4bn) with peak sales target JPY 15–16bn, QUVIVIQ H1 JPY 3.6bn and FY‑26 guidance JPY 5–6bn (market share low‑9% in DORA), and vamorolone peak potential JPY 10–20bn (with an external ~$670m forecast cited for broader markets). Platform and R&D targets: NexAQ spun out 1 July 2026, aims to compress discovery to 1–1.5 years and <JPY 5m per program (~70% time and >50% cost reduction), five AI‑led programs by 2028, four IND‑enabling studies in 2027 with clinic starts in 2028, and four clinical‑stage U.S. programs by 2028. Partnership metrics: more than $4.5bn of partner‑funded headline economics plus royalties, a target to execute a new >$1bn partnership this year, expectation of a NexAQ data readout and a new global out‑license in H2 2026, and Neurocrine’s M4 (direclidine) phase III readout in H2 2027; management also reiterated a 10% cost‑reduction ambition and a 2030 products goal of JPY 40–50bn with an operating margin above 30%.Sosei Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
53
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.43B | 29.61B | 28.84B | 12.77B | 15.57B | 17.71B |
| Gross Profit | 25.43B | 21.42B | 18.13B | 7.87B | 13.80B | 15.98B |
| EBITDA | 2.21B | -3.91B | -1.38B | -6.58B | 4.16B | 8.19B |
| Net Income | -7.80B | -12.53B | -4.84B | -7.19B | 382.00M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 132.38B | 134.79B | 151.50B | 157.20B | 100.22B | 98.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.75B | 20.36B | 36.20B | 49.06B | 66.56B | 60.09B |
| Total Debt | 54.41B | 57.38B | 67.90B | 73.97B | 29.73B | 29.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.58B | 73.79B | 82.98B | 90.39B | 42.29B | 40.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.80B | 61.00B | 68.52B | 66.81B | 57.94B | 57.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 269.00M | -3.12B | -8.24B | -6.08B | 9.65B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 874.00M | -2.67B | -7.72B | -5.27B | 9.95B | 7.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.43B | 5.43B | -4.76B | -63.79B | 1.04B | 278.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.25B | -16.03B | -6.85B | 48.33B | -4.89B | 11.12B |
Sosei Group Technical Analysis
Positive
1108.00
Price Trends
965.42
Positive
1003.67
Positive
930.11
Positive
Market Momentum
54.14
Negative
66.47
Neutral
43.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4565, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1108 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 999.25, above the 50-day MA of 965.42, and above the 200-day MA of 930.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 54.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4565.
Sosei Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54 Neutral | ¥35.78B | -80.07 | ― | ― | 3.43% | -53.59% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | ¥118.45B | -73.14 | ― | ― | 1662.38% | 42.86% | |
50 Neutral | ¥102.62B | -12.92 | -15.58% | ― | 7.12% | -137.21% | |
48 Neutral | ¥144.63B | -39.43 | -6.88% | ― | 0.62% | 27.66% | |
48 Neutral | ¥79.46B | -23.80 | -44.85% | ― | ― | 31.36% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4565
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Sosei Group Corporate Events
Nxera Pharma Builds APAC Footprint and Books Milestone Windfall in Q2 2026
Aug 7, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported steady operational and financial progress in the second quarter of 2026, underpinned by rising Japanese revenues from PIVLAZ and QUVIVIQ and an expanding presence in Asia-Pacific. The company strengthened its position in rare...
Nxera Pharma Swings to Profit on Revenue Jump, Keeps 2026 Outlook Intact
Aug 7, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a strong rebound for the six months to June 30, 2026, with revenue up 25.3% year-on-year to ¥18.91 billion and a swing to a core operating profit of ¥6.49 billion from ¥364 million a year earlier. The company a...
Nxera Pharma Secures Fourth AbbVie Milestone in Neurology Collaboration
Jun 30, 2026
Nxera Pharma has reached a fourth research and development milestone under its multi-target discovery collaboration with AbbVie, triggering a US$10 million payment tied to the identification of validated and differentiated hit molecules against a ...
Nxera Pharma Joins OpenFold AI Consortium to Boost GPCR Drug Discovery
Jun 10, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a biopharma specialist in GPCR structure-based drug discovery, has built a Japan-centered commercial business and global RD footprint spanning the U.K., Switzerland and South Korea. Listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, it targets high...
Nxera Wins Fast-Track and Orphan Status in Korea for Duchenne Drug Vamorolone
Jun 1, 2026
Nxera has secured both Orphan Drug Designation and Global Innovative Products on Fast Track status from South Korea’s Ministry of Food and Drug Safety for vamorolone in Duchenne muscular dystrophy, formally recognizing the disease’s hi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.