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Tobila Systems, Inc. (4441) AI Stock Analysis

JP:4441

Tobila Systems, Inc.

(TSE/TYO:4441)

Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:JPY 1,709.00â–²(10.47% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/11/26

The company's robust cash generation and low debt provide a strong foundation, but slowing revenue growth and margin pressure weigh on the outlook. Technicals show a stock in consolidation, and the valuation is fair but not a catalyst.

Positive Factors
Low LeverageVery low leverage gives Tobila Systems substantial financial flexibility and reduces the burden of interest and refinancing obligations. The improving debt-to-equity profile, alongside meaningful equity growth, supports resilience and preserves capacity to fund operations or strategic investment.
Negative Factors
Margin CompressionRecent margin compression weakens the quality of otherwise strong profitability and may indicate rising costs or an unfavorable mix shift. If it persists, lower incremental margins could limit earnings growth even while revenue continues to expand.

Tobila Systems, Inc. (4441) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%JP:4441+73.74%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 15.94B
Dividend Yield
2.59%
Average Volume (3M)
27.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
25.2
Beta (1Y)
0.13
Revenue Growth
24.30%
EPS Growth
-3.68%
Country
Japan
Employees
114
Sector
Technology
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Software - Application

Tobila Systems, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tobila Systems Inc. develops and sells nuisance call filter products in Japan. The company offers spam call filter products for mobiles, landlines, and business phones. It also provides TobilaPhone Biz, a service that enables the use of convenient fu...

Tobila Systems, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exceptional cash flow (FCF +42.3% YoY) and a conservative balance sheet (D/E 0.06) offset slowing revenue growth (3.6%) and margin compression. Overall financial health remains solid.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

75Positive

Cash Flow

92Very Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMOct 2025Oct 2024Oct 2023Oct 2022Oct 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.37B2.81B2.41B2.06B1.68B1.42B
Gross Profit2.21B1.94B1.71B1.43B1.18B1.05B
EBITDA1.04B1.05B1.06B936.12M645.52M613.04M
Net Income626.39M625.68M601.85M517.73M322.03M386.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.74B5.38B4.36B3.65B2.67B2.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.40B3.94B3.22B2.40B1.44B1.15B
Total Debt58.10M145.67M195.71M245.75M295.79M357.71M
Total Liabilities3.67B2.79B1.91B1.51B956.38M681.64M
Stockholders Equity3.07B2.60B2.44B2.14B1.71B1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.70B1.70B1.20B1.07B498.17M384.32M
Operating Cash Flow1.75B1.75B1.31B1.22B641.68M491.92M
Investing Cash Flow-1.38B-1.38B-78.34M-91.47M-188.74M-652.30M
Financing Cash Flow-549.30M-549.30M-416.50M-160.65M-162.91M45.80M

Tobila Systems, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price1547.00

Price Trends

50DMA1478.44Positive
100DMA1449.05Positive
200DMA1364.14Positive

Market Momentum

MACD24.28Negative
RSI53.22Neutral
STOCH29.28Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4441, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1547.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1518.89, above the 50-day MA of 1478.44, and above the 200-day MA of 1364.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4441.

Tobila Systems, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:4441 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:6835JP:683580OutperformJPY 31.72B9.5416.04%2.59%>-0.01%-7.51%
JP:6703JP:670377OutperformJPY 208.45B8.1515.75%2.70%-3.84%183.41%
JP:6820JP:682077OutperformJPY 51.96B16.76―2.07%4.53%36.26%
JP:6718JP:671874OutperformJPY 42.16B13.42―4.86%0.84%22.33%
JP:4441JP:444168NeutralJPY 16.41B25.21―2.59%24.30%-3.68%
JP:6778JP:677865NeutralJPY 5.75B18.34―4.03%-6.78%126.04%
Sector *61Neutral$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%JP:4441JP:6835JP:6703JP:6718JP:6778JP:6820Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:4441 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:4441Tobila Systems, Inc.1547.00640.0370.57%
JP:6835Allied Telesis Holdings KK305.0097.4146.93%
JP:6703OKI Electric Industry Company 2407.00604.8133.56%
JP:6718Aiphone Co., Ltd.2675.00-15.58-0.58%
JP:6778Artiza Networks, Inc.620.0026.444.46%
JP:6820Icom Incorporated3620.00554.4518.09%

Tobila Systems, Inc. Corporate Events

Tobila Systems Accelerates Solutions Growth While Investing for Long-Term Expansion

Sep 10, 2026

Tobila Systems Inc. is a Japan-based technology company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Standard, focusing on security and telephony solutions. Its operations span a stable Security Business and a high-growth Solutions Business built around Tobila...

Tobila Systems Delivers Strong Sales Growth and Doubles Dividend with 20th Anniversary Payout

Sep 10, 2026

Tobila Systems reported non-consolidated net sales of ¥2,636 million for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending October 31, 2026, up 27.1% year-on-year, while operating profit edged down 0.6% to ¥755 million. Ordinary profit and ne...

Tobila Systems Doubles Year-End Dividend with 20th Anniversary Payout

Sep 10, 2026

Tobila Systems has revised its year-end dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending October 31, 2026, to include a 20.00 yen per share commemorative dividend marking the company’s 20th anniversary. As a result, the forecasted year-end dividend...

Tobila Systems Sets August 31 Date for Nagoya Head Office Relocation

Aug 19, 2026

Tobila Systems Inc. has set August 31, 2026 as the effective date for relocating its head office to the 15th floor of the Meiji Yasuda Life Nagoya Building in Shinsakae-machi, Naka-ku, Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture. The move follows an earlier decision to...

Tobila Systems Finalizes Strategic Minority Stake in Prodelight

Jul 21, 2026

Tobila Systems Inc. has completed the previously announced acquisition of common shares in Prodelight Co., Ltd., formalizing a capital and business alliance between the two technology firms. The transaction, executed on July 17, 2026, gives Tobila Sy...

Tobila Systems Forms Capital and Business Alliance With Prodelight to Boost Cloud PBX Growth

Jul 14, 2026

Tobila Systems has approved a capital and business alliance with Prodelight Co., Ltd. to collaborate primarily in the cloud PBX field, including sales cooperation and joint development of products and services. As part of the deal, Tobila Systems wil...

Tobila Systems Details Cloud Sales Strategy and One-Off Revenue Drivers

Jul 9, 2026

Tobila Systems outlined its strategy for segmenting customers between TobilaPhone Biz and TobilaPhone Biz Lite, emphasizing that the lighter plan is aimed at small-scale users needing simple, low-cost functions and is unlikely to cannibalize the main...

Tobila Systems outlines demand drivers and strategy for TobilaPhone Biz and Cloud

Jun 15, 2026

Tobila Systems has released a Q&A addressing investor queries on its second-quarter performance, focusing on its core TobilaPhone Biz, Biz Lite, and Cloud solutions. Management said Biz Lite still represents a small share of unit sales and that t...

Tobila Systems Prioritizes Growth as Solution Business Fuels Record Quarterly Sales

Jun 12, 2026

Tobila Systems reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of JPY887 million, a 27% year-on-year increase and a new quarterly record, driven mainly by strong growth in its Solution Business while the Security Business remained stable. Operating pro...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2026