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Tomoku Co., Ltd. (3946) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3946

Tomoku Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3946)

Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:JPY 5,027.00â–²(16.77% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/09/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins and declining leverage), tempered by weak/volatile cash conversion. Technicals add support due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum indicators, and valuation is attractive with a low P/E and a ~2.9% dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Steady revenue and improving marginsSustained top-line growth with rising gross and EBIT margins indicates operational improvements and better pricing or cost control. This strengthens long-term cash generation potential and resilience versus peers, enabling reinvestment in capacity and higher-value converting services.
Negative Factors
Volatile free cash flowInconsistent cash conversion limits self-funding capacity for debt reduction, capex or shareholder returns. Persistent FCF volatility increases reliance on external financing or equity and constrains strategic flexibility during raw-material cost swings or demand slowdowns.

Tomoku Co., Ltd. (3946) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%JP:3946+35.09%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 71.02B
Dividend Yield
3.48%
Average Volume (3M)
81.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.3
Beta (1Y)
0.70
Revenue Growth
-2.52%
EPS Growth
4.23%
Country
Japan
Employees
3,965
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Packaging & Containers

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tomoku Co., Ltd., established in 1940 and based in Tokyo, Japan, is a diversified corporation with a core business in manufacturing and supplying essential packaging products, such as corrugated materials and paper containers. These solutions are cri...

How the Company Makes Money

Tomoku primarily makes money by selling corrugated cardboard materials and finished corrugated packaging (e.g., corrugated sheets and converted products such as boxes) to corporate customers that need shipping and logistics packaging. Revenue is gene...

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are improving, led by steady revenue growth and better profitability (gross margin up to ~18.1% and EBIT margin ~5.1% in 2026). Balance sheet leverage is moderating (debt-to-equity down to ~0.69), but returns remain only fair (~7.2% ROE). The main weakness is cash flow quality: free cash flow has been volatile and in 2026 covered only ~35% of net income, limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

64Positive

Cash Flow

48Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue221.87B224.09B219.61B211.53B212.82B206.01B
Gross Profit40.86B40.60B36.94B34.80B33.58B33.89B
EBITDA20.09B19.84B17.33B15.81B14.82B15.50B
Net Income7.60B7.36B6.51B5.31B5.25B5.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets219.80B223.84B206.82B213.37B195.38B190.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.56B23.96B21.00B18.13B15.02B16.70B
Total Debt68.56B70.21B68.51B74.23B71.16B68.93B
Total Liabilities117.34B120.87B113.45B124.16B114.67B113.89B
Stockholders Equity102.24B102.15B92.73B88.62B80.20B75.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow05.37B7.80B4.05B-2.42B-994.00M
Operating Cash Flow015.17B18.14B11.12B7.01B16.70B
Investing Cash Flow0-10.65B-8.26B-9.29B-9.39B-18.22B
Financing Cash Flow0-2.18B-7.05B1.05B535.00M4.12B

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price4305.00

Price Trends

50DMA4411.24Negative
100DMA4248.17Positive
200DMA3861.99Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-8.09Positive
RSI40.38Neutral
STOCH10.43Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3946, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4305.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4420.75, below the 50-day MA of 4411.24, and above the 200-day MA of 3861.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -8.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3946.

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3946 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3950JP:395085OutperformJPY 88.60B14.96―2.59%3.57%-1.12%
JP:7942JP:794278OutperformJPY 75.53B9.93―3.49%14.19%90.30%
JP:3954JP:395476OutperformJPY 13.36B8.94―1.83%2.39%21.14%
JP:3946JP:394670OutperformJPY 70.65B9.34―3.48%-2.52%4.23%
JP:3951JP:395169NeutralJPY 18.96B10.50―4.32%2.69%15.76%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
JP:7917JP:791758NeutralJPY 94.95B11.408.26%2.91%5.99%22.32%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%JP:3946JP:7917JP:3950JP:3951JP:3954JP:7942Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3946 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3946Tomoku Co., Ltd.4305.001132.7035.71%
JP:7917Fujimori Kogyo Co 1235.00209.2420.40%
JP:3950Pack Corporation1507.00340.6029.20%
JP:3951Asahi Printing Co., Ltd.880.0043.615.21%
JP:3954SHOWA PAXXS CORP.3010.00200.807.15%
JP:7942JSP Corporation3070.001251.8168.85%

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Tomoku lifts profit and dividend outlook despite weaker sales

Aug 6, 2026

Tomoku reported consolidated net sales of ¥48.7 billion for the three months to June 30, 2026, down 4.4% year on year, but improved profitability lifted operating profit 8.0% to ¥1.53 billion and ordinary profit 21.5% to ¥1.63 billion....

Tomoku boosts profits, raises dividend and reshapes group portfolio

Jul 31, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥48.7 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, down 4.4% year on year, but operating profit rose 8.0% to ¥1.53 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent jumped 31.5% to...

Tomoku Launches ¥1.5 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency

Jul 31, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has authorized a share buyback to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency, while preserving flexibility in its capital policies amid a changing business environment. The board approved the repurchase of up to 500,0...

Tomoku Launches New Shareholder Benefits and Commemorative Perks

Jul 16, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has approved the launch of a new shareholder benefits program and a special commemorative benefit, aligning these measures with its progressive dividend policy and a recently introduced management structure. The initiative is intende...

Tomoku Completes Treasury Share Disposal for Restricted Stock Compensation

Jul 10, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has completed payment procedures for the disposal of treasury shares used as transfer-restricted stock-based remuneration, following a board resolution passed on June 24, 2026. The program allocates equity to key management personnel...

Tomoku to Grant ¥111 Million in Restricted Stock to Directors and Executives

Jun 24, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has approved the disposal of 29,400 treasury shares to be used as transfer-restricted stock-based remuneration for six directors, fifteen executive officers, and two representative directors of a main subsidiary. The shares, priced a...

Tomoku Unveils Third Medium-Term Plan With Ambitious Growth and Profit Targets

May 28, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has formulated its Third Medium-Term Management Plan, a three-year program covering the fiscal years ending March 31, 2027 to March 31, 2029, to drive group-wide growth. The plan clarifies business goals, emphasizes capital investmen...

Tomoku Lifts Earnings, Strengthens Balance Sheet and Hikes Dividends for FY2026

May 15, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. reported a solid performance for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, with net sales rising 2.0% to ¥224.1 billion and operating profit climbing 21.6% to ¥11.4 billion, lifting profit attributable to owners of parent by 13...

Tomoku Raises Annual Dividend as Part of Progressive Shareholder Return Policy

May 15, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. has approved a year-end dividend of ¥65 per share for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, matching its latest forecast and up from ¥55 a year earlier. The total payout for this dividend will be ¥1,072 million, with a...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 09, 2026