Showcase, Inc. (Japan) (3909) AI Stock Analysis

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Showcase, Inc. (Japan)

(TSE/TYO:3909)

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Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:JPY 547.00▲(6.42% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

The score is supported mainly by strong technical momentum (price well above key moving averages and positive MACD) and a relatively modest P/E (~10). Offsetting this is mixed financial performance: despite improved profitability and lower leverage, the steep revenue decline and persistent negative operating/free cash flow (including in 2025) remain the key risks.

Positive Factors

Return to ProfitabilityThe return to profitability and approximately 28% net margin show that the company can produce meaningful earnings under its current cost structure. If maintained, this improves internal funding capacity and provides a stronger base for sustaining software investment and customer-support activities.

Negative Factors

Severe Revenue ContractionThe sharp revenue contraction is a major threat to durable earnings power because it reduces the scale over which fixed operating costs and product investment can be spread. Continued weakness in customer demand or project volume could make the recent profit recovery difficult to sustain.

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) (3909) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 4.72B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.9
Beta (1Y): 0.39
Revenue Growth: -57.12%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: Japan
Employees: 78
Sector: Technology
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Software - Application

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Showcase Inc., headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, and established in 1996, offers a comprehensive range of website optimization and digital solutions. Key among its products are NaviCast Form Assist, an entry form optimization (EFO) tool designed to meas...

How the Company Makes Money

Showcase, Inc. generates revenue primarily by providing software and digital optimization solutions to business customers. Its monetization typically involves fees for the use of its software products (e.g., SaaS-style subscription or license/usage f...

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Income statement improved with a return to profitability in 2025 and a strong net margin, and leverage improved materially (debt-to-equity down to ~0.36x). However, revenue fell sharply (~44% YoY) and cash flow is a major concern: operating and free cash flow were negative for multiple years including 2025, indicating weak earnings-to-cash conversion and higher liquidity risk.

Income Statement

54Neutral

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

28Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.28B	2.90B	6.21B	5.68B	4.63B	1.59B
Gross Profit	1.19B	1.30B	1.51B	1.60B	1.70B	1.21B
EBITDA	610.44M	923.97M	-503.01M	24.71M	-475.78M	154.81M
Net Income	441.62M	810.38M	-742.76M	-117.98M	-526.33M	59.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.38B	2.50B	3.49B	3.46B	4.00B	2.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	797.39M	905.42M	1.33B	1.40B	1.75B	1.88B
Total Debt	588.67M	605.69M	1.87B	1.63B	1.24B	340.57M
Total Liabilities	695.42M	801.22M	2.19B	1.95B	1.73B	504.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.68B	1.70B	795.89M	881.41M	1.60B	2.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-198.93M	-125.24M	-693.45M	-190.88M	-823.67M	110.31M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.56M	-41.89M	-683.80M	-184.26M	-804.41M	121.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-56.98M	-56.98M	-292.69M	51.63M	233.88M	-94.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-430.60M	-430.60M	910.54M	-215.93M	311.97M	-349.25M

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price514.00

Price Trends

50DMA391.86Positive

100DMA294.69Positive

200DMA268.98Positive

Market Momentum

MACD84.57Positive

RSI46.16Neutral

STOCH6.82Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3909, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 514.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 686.80, above the 50-day MA of 391.86, and above the 200-day MA of 268.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 84.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3909.

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3909 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:4477	86Outperform	JPY 37.15B	15.47	―	1.69%	36.14%	304.76%
JP:5027	64Neutral	JPY 44.75B	31.91	―	0.30%	28.94%	-29.21%
JP:3909	63Neutral	JPY 6.00B	7.93	―	―	-57.12%	―
Sector *	61Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
JP:4484	58Neutral	JPY 4.43B	44.42	―	0.75%	20.67%	-37.51%
JP:4015	45Neutral	JPY 5.72B	11.66	―	―	8.88%	191.06%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:3909 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:3909	Showcase, Inc. (Japan)	514.00	208.00	67.97%
JP:4015	Paycloud Holdings Inc.	309.00	-186.00	-37.58%
JP:4477	BASE, Inc.	295.00	-71.50	-19.51%
JP:4484	Lancers, Inc.	267.00	-24.08	-8.27%
JP:5027	AnyMind Group Inc.	668.00	-20.81	-3.02%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Showcase, Inc. (Japan) AI Stock Analysis