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KAYAC, Inc. (3904) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3904

KAYAC, Inc.

(TSE/TYO:3904)

Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:JPY 432.00â–²(8.54% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals in 2025 (revenue and margin recovery, gross margin strength) but held back by uneven cash-flow conversion and less conservative leverage versus 2023. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive but capped by the stock trading below the 200-day average. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~14) with only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Revenue RecoveryThe return to double-digit revenue growth indicates that KAYAC can restore demand after a weaker period. Sustained growth would improve operating leverage and support broader monetization across its digital services and gaming-related offerings.
Negative Factors
Profitability Below Historical PeaksThe recovery in earnings is encouraging, but margins remain materially below prior strengths. This indicates that profitability is still sensitive to cost pressure or business mix, limiting the durability of earnings until operating margins normalize.

KAYAC, Inc. (3904) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%JP:3904-6.73%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 6.13B
Dividend Yield
0.98%
Average Volume (3M)
14.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
11.6
Beta (1Y)
0.62
Revenue Growth
20.33%
EPS Growth
15.26%
Country
Japan
Employees
618
Sector
Communication Services
Sector Strength
60
Industry
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

KAYAC, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KAYAC Inc. is a Japanese company primarily focused on the gaming industry. It manages various platforms, including Lobi, a community for gamers, and Tonamel, a system that assists organizers with managing tournaments. The company also supports esport...

How the Company Makes Money

null

KAYAC, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a recovery in 2025: revenue rebounded (+12.6% YoY) and profitability improved (net margin ~3.4% vs ~0.9% in 2024). Gross margin stayed healthy (~53–54%), but operating/net margins remain well below 2020–2022 levels. Balance sheet leverage is manageable (~0.56x debt-to-equity) but less conservative than 2023, and cash-flow consistency is a key weakness given the 2024 negative OCF/FCF followed by a rebound in 2025 (FCF only ~50% of net income).

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

52Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.48B20.09B16.73B17.47B16.50B12.57B
Gross Profit11.34B10.91B9.03B9.23B7.92B5.93B
EBITDA1.55B1.42B706.92M1.37B1.46B1.36B
Net Income540.39M683.92M149.05M511.18M779.84M828.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.56B13.56B12.88B11.68B10.98B7.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.58B5.66B4.96B5.00B4.26B2.46B
Total Debt2.68B3.23B3.27B2.12B2.34B2.30B
Total Liabilities7.12B7.26B6.85B5.75B5.64B4.26B
Stockholders Equity5.93B5.80B5.56B5.46B4.86B3.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0511.52M-383.94M977.46M1.51B383.54M
Operating Cash Flow01.04B-219.66M1.12B1.77B489.66M
Investing Cash Flow099.28M-949.59M-351.90M-691.48M13.41M
Financing Cash Flow0-588.14M926.49M-37.96M713.82M-572.15M

KAYAC, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price398.00

Price Trends

50DMA422.54Negative
100DMA413.41Negative
200DMA436.52Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-5.29Positive
RSI31.79Neutral
STOCH24.56Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3904, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 398.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 416.55, below the 50-day MA of 422.54, and below the 200-day MA of 436.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3904.

KAYAC, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

JP:3904 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3912JP:391273OutperformJPY 6.93B13.1720.16%4.59%1.92%-26.02%
JP:3911JP:391170OutperformJPY 10.09B8.43――-20.04%-54.97%
JP:4728JP:472867NeutralJPY 4.74B6.60―4.00%-4.82%186.71%
JP:3793JP:379366NeutralJPY 13.16B4.24――4.52%―
Sector *60Neutral$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
JP:3904JP:390459NeutralJPY 6.41B11.60―0.98%20.33%15.26%
JP:4175JP:417543NeutralJPY 15.84B-20.30――-1.75%-617.20%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%JP:3904JP:3912JP:3793JP:3911JP:4175JP:4728Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3904 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3904KAYAC, Inc.398.00-28.73-6.73%
JP:3912Mobile Factory, Inc.1067.00114.8712.06%
JP:3793Drecom Co., Ltd.453.00-5.00-1.09%
JP:3911Aiming, Inc.216.00-3.00-1.37%
JP:4175coly Inc.2879.00841.0041.27%
JP:4728Tose Co., Ltd.625.0012.111.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026