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Nippon Paper
(3863)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,254.00
▼(-8.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/30/26
The score is primarily constrained by elevated leverage and uneven profitability/free-cash-flow consistency despite a clear post-2023 recovery and steady positive operating cash flow. Technicals are mildly supportive with the stock holding above key moving averages, while valuation appears fair rather than compelling given a mid-teens P/E and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Recovery
Steady revenue growth combined with a recovery from the 2023 loss indicates improving demand, pricing, or product mix across the company’s markets. If maintained, this broader earnings base can support reinvestment and strengthen operating resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt remains high relative to equity, reducing financial flexibility and increasing the importance of stable operating performance. Elevated leverage can constrain investment and capital allocation, while interest and refinancing obligations may amplify the impact of weaker industry conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Recovery
Steady revenue growth combined with a recovery from the 2023 loss indicates improving demand, pricing, or product mix across the company’s markets. If maintained, this broader earnings base can support reinvestment and strengthen operating resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nippon Paper (3863) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥147.07B
Dividend Yield1.18%
Average Volume (3M)455.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth2.22%
EPS Growth27.47%
CountryJP
Employees15,042
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)83.16
Shares Outstanding116,254,900
10 Day Avg. Volume505,190
30 Day Avg. Volume455,453
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio7.08
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)81.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥1.21T
Nippon Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 1949 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a global enterprise with a primary focus on paper manufacturing and a wide array of related businesses. The company's extensive product portfolio ...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paper primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling pulp- and paper-based products to corporate customers and distributors. Key revenue streams include (1) Paper and paperboard sales: revenue generated from supplying printing/communica...
Nippon Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.21T | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.17T | 1.15T | 1.05T |
| Gross Profit | 199.00B | 199.01B | 186.73B | 177.27B | 140.42B | 169.22B |
| EBITDA | 86.11B | 88.42B | 87.50B | 82.53B | 40.47B | 79.66B |
| Net Income | 9.61B | 11.74B | 4.54B | 22.75B | -50.41B | 1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.76T | 1.74T | 1.70T | 1.73T | 1.67T | 1.64T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 160.13B | 207.41B | 185.94B | 164.86B | 144.35B | 136.84B |
| Total Debt | 842.25B | 876.86B | 881.02B | 889.12B | 925.31B | 898.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21T | 1.20T | 1.19T | 1.24T | 1.25T | 1.20T |
| Stockholders Equity | 515.26B | 508.47B | 482.03B | 468.79B | 394.65B | 426.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 20.70B | 21.72B | 28.62B | -23.53B | 12.70B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 74.99B | 72.79B | 90.28B | 65.82B | 72.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -43.58B | -33.44B | -22.03B | -66.17B | -61.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.86B | -18.27B | -46.57B | 5.12B | 54.31B |
Nippon Paper Technical Analysis
Negative
1365.00
Price Trends
1325.61
Negative
1319.63
Negative
1291.08
Negative
Market Momentum
-16.55
Negative
43.82
Neutral
56.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3863, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1365 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1290.05, above the 50-day MA of 1325.61, and above the 200-day MA of 1291.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3863.
Nippon Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | ¥149.94B | 28.42 | ― | 2.89% | 9.61% | -3.44% | |
62 Neutral | ¥710.98B | 11.75 | 5.99% | 4.33% | 0.22% | 208.36% | |
62 Neutral | ¥133.07B | 20.69 | 2.61% | 3.09% | -5.23% | -55.21% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | ¥147.07B | 15.28 | 1.94% | 1.18% | 2.22% | 27.47% | |
54 Neutral | ¥53.74B | 13.46 | 5.78% | 1.77% | -8.09% | 76.25% | |
52 Neutral | ¥160.89B | 20.10 | 3.48% | 1.44% | 1.33% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:3863
Nippon Paper
1,295.00
109.89
9.27%
JP:3864
Mitsubishi Paper Mills
1,241.00
593.82
91.75%
JP:3861
Oji Holdings
830.30
49.78
6.38%
JP:3865
Hokuetsu Corporation
840.00
-119.65
-12.47%
JP:3880
Daio Paper Corporation
979.00
107.09
12.28%
JP:8032
Japan Pulp and Paper Co. Ltd.
1,329.00
614.31
85.95%
Nippon Paper Corporate Events
Nippon Paper Books Large Extraordinary Gains from LINTEC Share Sales
Sep 28, 2026
Nippon Paper has completed an additional sale of 415,100 common shares of LINTEC Corporation for about JPY 2.1 billion, as part of a broader secondary offering. This latest transaction will generate extraordinary income of roughly JPY 1.9 billion ...
Nippon Paper to Halt Hungarian EV Battery Material Operations, Book ¥5 Billion Loss
Sep 7, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has decided to temporarily suspend operations at its Hungarian subsidiary Nippon Paper Chemicals Europe Zrt., which produces CMC for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, after the unit failed to achieve stable e...
Nippon Paper to Book Large Extraordinary Gain from LINTEC Share Sale
Sep 1, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has set the sale price for a secondary offering of 12,436,600 common shares of LINTEC Corporation, raising total proceeds of ¥63.6 billion at ¥5,115 per share. This transaction follows an earlier sale to LINTEC...
Nippon Paper Books ¥29.4 Billion From LINTEC Share Sale, Trims Secondary Offering
Aug 24, 2026
Nippon Paper has sold 5,357,800 common shares of LINTEC Corporation via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction own share repurchase system, generating proceeds of ¥29.4 billion at ¥5,490 per share. The transaction responds to LINTE...
Nippon Paper to Divest Entire LINTEC Stake in Capital Efficiency Push
Aug 20, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has resolved to sell all of its roughly 20 million common shares in LINTEC Corporation via a secondary offering as part of a broader balance sheet optimization drive under its Medium-term Business Plan 2030. The disposal fo...
Nippon Paper Divests Loss-Making Opal Bag Business to Magan Group Affiliate
Aug 5, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has moved to streamline its overseas operations by deciding to transfer the bag manufacturing business of its Australian subsidiary Opal to A.C.N. 700 735 575 Pty Ltd, a special-purpose vehicle affiliated with U.S. divestit...
Nippon Paper Q1 Profit Drops, Full-Year Outlook Withdrawn After Plant Incidents
Aug 5, 2026
Nippon Paper reported that first-quarter results for the fiscal year ending March 2027 were broadly in line with its plan, with net sales rising 7.5 percent year on year to ¥314.5 billion, aided by newly consolidated subsidiaries and the weak...
Nippon Paper pulls 2027 earnings forecast after U.S. accident and Kumamoto quake damage
Aug 5, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has withdrawn its previously issued consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 after a tank collapse accident at its U.S. subsidiary Nippon Dynawave Packaging and quake damage at its Yatsushiro Mil...
Nippon Paper Posts Quarterly Loss Despite Higher Sales and Holds Dividend Outlook
Aug 5, 2026
Nippon Paper reported a 7.5% year-on-year rise in net sales to ¥314.5 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, but operating profit fell 47% and the company swung to a net loss attributable to owners of the parent, resulting in a neg...
Nippon Paper Halts Yatsushiro Plant After Fatal Kumamoto Quake, Activates Crisis Response
Jul 31, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries, a leading Japanese paper and pulp producer, operates a nationwide network of plants that supply industrial, packaging, printing, and household paper products to domestic and overseas markets. The company’s scale and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.