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Asteria Corporation (3853) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3853

Asteria Corporation

(TSE/TYO:3853)

Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:JPY 1,049.00â–²(9.50% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/19/26

The score is driven primarily by solid but inconsistent financial performance (strong margins and low leverage, but notable earnings and cash-flow variability) and an attractive low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD indicating unfavorable near-term trend.

Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Current ProfitabilityRecent revenue growth combined with strong FY2026 net and EBIT margins indicates the company is converting expanding sales into meaningful earnings. If this performance persists, it can support reinvestment, strengthen operating resilience, and provide a durable base for earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings VolatilityLarge losses in two recent fiscal years show that reported profitability has not been consistently dependable. This volatility makes future earnings power harder to forecast, can weaken confidence in the durability of current margins, and raises the risk that results swing materially between periods.

Asteria Corporation (3853) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%JP:3853-33.82%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 16.27B
Dividend Yield
0.94%
Average Volume (3M)
254.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
7.0
Beta (1Y)
0.66
Revenue Growth
7.11%
EPS Growth
146.94%
Country
Japan
Employees
145
Sector
Technology
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Software - Application

Asteria Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Asteria Corporation is dedicated to crafting and distributing software. Its product lineup encompasses ASTERIA Warp, a data integration middleware that facilitates operational automation through non-programming technology; SnapCal, designed for smoot...

Asteria Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are supported by steady recent revenue growth and solid FY2026 profitability (net margin ~23.6%, EBIT margin ~16.4%) alongside low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.09). Offsetting this, earnings have been volatile with large net losses in FY2023–FY2024, and operating profitability and cash conversion weakened in FY2026 versus FY2025 (lower operating cash flow and modest OCF/EBIT ~0.39).

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

81Very Positive

Cash Flow

67Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.44B3.39B3.17B2.91B2.79B2.97B
Gross Profit2.88B2.99B2.83B2.63B2.49B2.49B
EBITDA805.30M865.36M964.13M781.22M200.26M159.86M
Net Income2.30B798.65M588.62M-1.81B-1.67B2.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.10B10.60B8.17B7.59B10.62B12.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.40B3.26B2.81B2.19B2.15B2.19B
Total Debt1.36B665.00M398.97M807.78M997.26M1.17B
Total Liabilities3.26B2.65B1.93B1.83B2.99B3.61B
Stockholders Equity9.46B7.80B6.10B5.58B7.13B8.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0545.92M816.92M510.81M-155.56M-4.58M
Operating Cash Flow0571.02M829.33M629.67M234.82M58.04M
Investing Cash Flow0-713.67M777.72M-421.88M6.58M-453.31M
Financing Cash Flow0535.14M-523.42M-315.26M-339.41M-270.35M

Asteria Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price958.00

Price Trends

50DMA1078.82Negative
100DMA1155.12Negative
200DMA1305.74Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-25.91Negative
RSI38.39Neutral
STOCH27.37Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3853, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 958.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1013.65, below the 50-day MA of 1078.82, and below the 200-day MA of 1305.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -25.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3853.

Asteria Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3853 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3771JP:377182OutperformJPY 31.45B12.46―3.72%9.34%3.51%
JP:3921JP:392179OutperformJPY 22.50B12.05―3.61%7.78%9.63%
JP:4058JP:405877OutperformJPY 24.46B18.01―0.90%40.53%32.41%
JP:3648JP:364876OutperformJPY 17.63B9.54―3.49%12.33%13.11%
JP:3853JP:385369NeutralJPY 16.08B7.03―0.94%7.11%146.94%
Sector *61Neutral$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%JP:3853JP:3648JP:3771JP:3921JP:4058Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3853 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3853Asteria Corporation958.00-510.54-34.77%
JP:3648AGS Corporation1031.00-414.54-28.68%
JP:3771System Research Co., Ltd.1881.00-72.04-3.69%
JP:3921NEOJAPAN Inc.1606.00-158.85-9.00%
JP:4058Toyokumo, Inc.2222.00-624.38-21.94%

Asteria Corporation Corporate Events

Asteria Deploys Disaster-Response Software, Donates JPY 3 Million After Crisis

Aug 14, 2026

Asteria Corporation has responded to a recent disaster by donating JPY 3 million and offering its products free of charge to affected municipalities and businesses. The company rapidly developed and released an “Evacuation Center & Local In...

Asteria Lifts Full-Year Operating Profit Outlook on SpaceX Share Sale Gain

Aug 14, 2026

Asteria Corporation has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027, keeping projected revenue at 3,700 million yen but raising expected operating profit from 1,100 million yen to 1,500 million yen. The new guidan...

Asteria Posts Profit Surge and Lifts Outlook for FY 2027

Aug 14, 2026

Asteria Corporation reported consolidated revenue of ¥824 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, a 7.0% year-on-year increase, while operating profit surged to ¥2,451 million, reflecting a sharp rise compared with the prior-year perio...

Asteria to Book ¥2.05 Billion Valuation Gain on SpaceX Investment

Aug 10, 2026

Asteria Corporation, traded on the TSE Prime Market, participates in advanced technology sectors via its wholly owned subsidiary Asteria AI & Robotics Inc., which holds an investment in SpaceX. This structure underscores the company’s engag...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 19, 2026