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Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. (3299) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3299

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3299)

Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:JPY 1,852.00â–²(19.10% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/17/26

Mugen Estate's overall score of 63 reflects a balance between strong profitability and attractive valuation against high leverage and weak cash flow. The company's income statement shows impressive growth and margins, but the balance sheet is moderately leveraged and cash generation is inconsistent. Technical indicators are bearish, adding near-term pressure. Investors should monitor the company's ability to convert earnings into cash and manage its debt obligations.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin RecoveryThe strong rebound in revenue and expansion of gross and EBIT margins indicate improved execution in acquiring, renovating, and reselling properties. Sustained profitability provides a stronger earnings base, although future performance remains linked to transaction volumes and property sourcing.
Negative Factors
Elevated and Rising LeverageHigher debt increases financing obligations and reduces flexibility if property sales slow or funding costs rise. Because inventory must be carried before resale, elevated leverage can amplify earnings and balance-sheet downside during a weaker residential property cycle.

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. (3299) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%JP:3299-16.38%EWJ+17.00%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 37.21B
Dividend Yield
7.67%
Average Volume (3M)
130.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
7.9
Beta (1Y)
0.69
Revenue Growth
-2.46%
EPS Growth
-26.95%
Country
Japan
Employees
501
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MUGEN ESTATE Co.,Ltd. is a Japanese company that specializes in the acquisition and resale of pre-owned real estate assets. Its operations are segmented into Real Estate Trading, and Real Estate Leasing and Other Services. The company's diverse portf...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money through a value-add real estate resale model. It purchases pre-owned residential properties (inventory), invests in refurbishment/renovation and repositioning, and then sells the properties; revenue is recognized at...

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong revenue growth (7.3% YoY, 5-year CAGR 14.4%) and robust margins (net margin 9.8%, ROE 18.6%). However, balance sheet leverage is elevated (D/E 1.75, debt/EBITDA 5.3x) and operating cash flow turned negative in the latest year, raising concerns. Overall financial health is mixed.

Income Statement

85Very Positive

Balance Sheet

65Positive

Cash Flow

50Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue63.63B68.26B62.19B51.64B31.24B33.96B
Gross Profit16.51B18.28B16.57B11.41B7.15B5.79B
EBITDA10.25B11.94B10.45B6.66B3.66B2.98B
Net Income5.30B6.66B6.09B3.65B1.56B1.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets108.44B106.70B87.50B80.36B77.45B62.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments18.16B20.72B22.02B20.42B17.75B17.57B
Total Debt66.44B62.74B48.82B47.65B49.31B36.86B
Total Liabilities73.83B70.89B55.43B52.52B52.84B39.23B
Stockholders Equity34.62B35.80B32.08B27.84B24.60B23.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-10.58B2.42B4.86B-11.65B2.13B
Operating Cash Flow0-6.76B2.60B5.37B-11.49B3.31B
Investing Cash Flow0-4.97B-312.00M-498.00M-157.00M-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow010.40B-825.00M-2.15B11.85B-621.00M

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price1555.00

Price Trends

50DMA1675.76Negative
100DMA1745.53Negative
200DMA1929.47Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-26.25Positive
RSI36.88Neutral
STOCH7.95Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3299, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1555.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1613.05, below the 50-day MA of 1675.76, and below the 200-day MA of 1929.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -26.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3299.

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

JP:3299 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3293JP:329371OutperformJPY 6.00B11.702.98%4.70%-12.15%-27.60%
JP:2981JP:298170OutperformJPY 11.77B5.67―2.57%7.71%3.72%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
JP:3299JP:329963NeutralJPY 37.84B7.93―7.67%-2.46%-26.95%
JP:1925JP:192563NeutralJPY 2.99T7.9012.78%5.96%4.66%16.74%
JP:8897JP:889759NeutralJPY 54.02B7.459.01%6.65%24.52%5.03%
JP:8871JP:887158NeutralJPY 85.02B9.896.08%5.21%14.17%37.02%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%JP:3299JP:8871JP:1925JP:8897JP:3293JP:2981Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3299 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3299Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.1578.00-317.54-16.75%
JP:8871GOLDCREST Co 2496.00-616.52-19.81%
JP:1925Daiwa House Industry Co 2282.50-253.97-10.01%
JP:8897Takara Leben Co., Ltd.406.0048.8013.66%
JP:3293Azuma House Co., Ltd.745.003.460.47%
JP:2981Landix, Inc.2065.00-316.77-13.30%

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Mugen Estate Confirms Higher Interim Dividend and Steady Payout Policy

Aug 7, 2026

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. has approved an interim dividend for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, maintaining its stance as a stable income provider in Japan’s real estate sector. The dividend, with a record date of June 30, 2026, underscor...

Mugen Estate Profit Slides as Real Estate Headwinds Force Lower 2026 Outlook

Aug 7, 2026

Mugen Estate reported a sharp deterioration in results for the six months to June 30, 2026, with net sales down 18.8% to ¥26.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent plunging 60.2% to ¥1.32 billion, while its equity ratio eased...

Mugen Estate Cuts 2026 Earnings and Dividend Forecast Amid Slower Property Sales

Aug 7, 2026

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. has sharply revised down its consolidated earnings forecast for the year ending December 31, 2026, citing weaker demand from overseas investors and sluggish sales of large properties in its mainstay Real Estate Purchase and Res...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026