Alfresa Holdings (2784) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $374.60B
• Dividend Yield: 0.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 505.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 3.59%
• EPS Growth: -5.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 12,517
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 9.68
• Shares Outstanding: 191,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 420,980
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 505,200
• PEG Ratio: 0.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $2,205.84
• Price Target Upside: 12.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,101.00 ▲(7.03%Upside)

Alfresa Holdings exhibits a strong financial foundation with low leverage and solid valuation metrics, making it a potentially attractive investment. However, technical analysis highlights bearish momentum, which could pose near-term risks. The company's ability to improve cash flow and profit margins will be crucial for enhancing its overall investment appeal.

Alfresa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is involved in the ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business that offers diagnostic reagents and medical devices/equipment to hospitals, clinics, and dispensing pharmacies. The company also engages in self-medication products wholesaling business that offers over-the-counter drugs, including health foods, supplements, and other products to drug stores and pharmacies. In addition, it manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices, as well as undertakes contract manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. Further, the company's medical-related business includes its dispensing pharmacy and other medical-related activities. Alfresa Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Alfresa Holdings makes money through its robust and diverse revenue streams across its business segments. The Ethical Pharmaceuticals Wholesaling segment is the primary revenue driver, involving the distribution of prescription drugs and medical devices to hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies. The company leverages its extensive logistics network and strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical manufacturers to secure favorable pricing and ensure efficient supply chain management. Additionally, the Self-Medication Products Wholesaling segment contributes to revenue by distributing over-the-counter drugs and health-related products to retail outlets. The Manufacturing segment adds value through the production of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, further enhancing the company's market position. Alfresa Holdings' success is underpinned by its commitment to quality, strong supplier relationships, and a focus on meeting the evolving needs of the healthcare industry.

Alfresa Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alfresa Holdings shows consistent revenue growth and a strong balance sheet with low leverage, but faces challenges with declining cash flow and tight profit margins. Overall, the company maintains a solid financial position with potential for improvement in cash conversion and profitability.

Income Statement

Alfresa Holdings demonstrated moderate revenue growth of 3.59% over the past year, with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 7.22%. The net profit margin of 0.93% in the most recent year indicates a slight decline from the previous period, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 1.29% and 1.84%, respectively, showing a consistent but tight control over operating expenses. Overall, the income statement reflects steady revenue growth and profitability, although margins could be improved.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings is robust, marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 5.68%, demonstrating efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong at 33.47%, highlighting a solid capital structure with significant shareholder equity. This suggests financial stability and a low risk of solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow, shifting from a positive position to negative in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.21 suggests challenges in converting income into cash. However, the company maintains a strategic approach to capital expenditures and investing activities, indicating potential for future improvement. The reduced free cash flow is a concern but is offset by effective cash management practices.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.94T	2.96T	2.86T	2.70T	2.59T	2.60T
	Gross Profit
214.79B	213.93B	206.37B	192.09B	187.47B	175.54B
	EBIT
39.66B	38.08B	38.46B	30.15B	29.09B	20.67B
	EBITDA
55.13B	54.57B	57.44B	43.45B	41.92B	32.54B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
34.41B	27.39B	29.56B	25.79B	32.18B	24.50B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
200.86B	177.09B	213.76B	160.12B	180.44B	170.34B
	Total Assets
1.59T	1.44T	1.45T	1.34T	1.30T	1.32T
	Total Debt
31.00B	35.55B	34.94B	3.85B	5.04B	6.17B
	Net Debt
-169.76B	-141.54B	-178.82B	-156.27B	-175.40B	-164.10B
	Total Liabilities
1.10T	957.63B	967.77B	851.52B	832.16B	826.70B
	Stockholders Equity
492.46B	481.79B	479.60B	488.09B	471.59B	489.74B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	-10.87B	71.05B	-12.38B	19.56B	-39.40B
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	5.64B	86.38B	13.09B	36.55B	-21.19B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-24.92B	-14.22B	-20.54B	2.30B	-4.73B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-23.53B	-19.70B	-12.92B	-29.15B	-14.47B

Alfresa Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1963.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2784, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1963 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1932.23, below the 50-day MA of 2036.37, and below the 200-day MA of 2127.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -28.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:2784.

Alfresa Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2784	69 Neutral	$374.60B	13.30	5.65%	0.02%	3.59%	-5.08%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
MEPDF		$3.04B	13.86	6.53%	2.43%	―	―
SZUKF		$2.14B	12.63	8.32%	0.01%	―	―
3549	78 Outperform	¥369.20B	19.34		0.40%	13.86%	98.99%
8129	69 Neutral	¥300.88B	14.71		1.74%	2.83%	-2.76%
3151	68 Neutral	¥54.49B	8.13		3.96%	2.19%	30.44%

Alfresa Holdings Corporate Events

Alfresa Holdings Unveils Ambitious Mid-term Management Plan

Alfresa Holdings has announced its 25–27 Mid-term Management Plan, part of its Vision 2032 Stage 2, which focuses on strengthening core businesses and expanding its supply chain services. The plan includes strategic investments in growth and new businesses, rigorous cost control, and sustainability management to enhance corporate value and ensure a stable supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Revises Stock Compensation Plan Amid Structural Transition

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced a revision to its performance-linked stock compensation plan as it transitions to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure. This change aims to align the interests of directors and executive officers with shareholders by using a Board Incentive Plan trust to grant shares based on performance. The revision is subject to approval at the upcoming shareholders meeting and includes additional contributions to the trust, enhancing transparency and independence in remuneration decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Announces Governance Transition and Executive Changes

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced its transition to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure, pending approval at the upcoming shareholders’ meeting in June 2025. This transition involves the election of new director candidates and changes to executive personnel, which are expected to enhance the company’s governance and operational oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings to Enhance Governance with New Committee Structure

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced plans to transition to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure, pending approval at the upcoming Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. This change aims to enhance corporate governance and decision-making efficiency by strengthening board monitoring functions and delegating business execution authority to directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Faces Profitability Challenges Despite Sales Growth

Alfresa Holdings reported a 3.6% increase in net sales for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, reaching ¥2,961,051 million. However, the company experienced a decline in operating profit by 1.0% and a 7.3% decrease in profit attributable to owners of the parent. The cash flow from operating activities significantly decreased, and the annual dividend per share was reduced from the previous year. These financial results indicate challenges in maintaining profitability despite increased sales, potentially impacting stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.