St Joe Company AI Stock Analysis
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St Joe Company (JOE) AI Stock Analysis
St Joe Company
(NYSE:JOE)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and materially improved operating/free cash flow with improving leverage), supported by constructive technical momentum (trading above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting factors include valuation pressure (P/E ~32 with a modest ~0.94% yield) and the major financial risk flagged in the statements: the extreme TTM revenue decline and historically volatile cash-flow profile. Earnings call commentary was a net positive due to strong year-to-date results, expanding development pipeline, and shareholder returns, despite near-term quarterly softness and permitting/obligation-related risks.
St Joe Company (JOE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $4.02B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.93%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 242.25K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 33.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.64
- Revenue Growth
- 11.10%
- EPS Growth
- 17.69%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,019
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Real Estate - Development
St Joe Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The St. Joe Company, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a real estate development, asset management, and operational enterprise, primarily located in Northwest Florida. Its business activities are organized into three primary divisions:...
How the Company Makes Money
The St. Joe Company makes money primarily by monetizing its land and development pipeline and by operating income-producing real estate and hospitality assets. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Residential real estate: selling homesites/fini...
St Joe Company Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly positive: strong year-to-date revenue, net income, and operating income growth; record hospitality revenue; higher Latitude sales and backlog; substantial share repurchases; and continued development demand outweighed the third-quarter declines in revenue and net income, hurricane-related repairs, the pending ICW Marina permit, and higher contractual obligations.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company said capital expenditure for growth is expected to grow “over the next year or two,” with the pace “increasing” and “accelerating” “over the next couple of years”; Watersound West Bay Center is planned for a minimum of 500,000 sq ft, with 33,182 sq ft existing and 69,134 sq ft under construction, including a new Publix grocery store; the second phase of Latitude Margaritaville Watersound will add approximately 3,500 planned homes, bringing the community to approximately 7,200 planned homes; the Pigeon Creek community is expected to break ground in the first part of 2027 and is planned for approximately 3,000 homes; and the company is planning off-site utility corridors for future new communities in the thousands of units that are going to capture probably two or three separate DSAPs.
St Joe Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong recent profitability and cash generation support the score (TTM net margin ~22%, operating cash flow ~$188M and free cash flow ~$177M, with good cash conversion). Balance sheet leverage is trending better (debt-to-equity ~0.71) and ROE improved (~15.8%). The main offset is the extremely sharp TTM revenue contraction (~-89%) and historically lumpy free cash flow, which increases uncertainty in a development-driven model.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
68PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 542.96M | 513.32M | 402.74M | 389.29M | 252.30M | 267.00M |
| Gross Profit | 410.08M | 477.51M | 167.22M | 153.31M | 106.42M | 135.68M |
| EBITDA | 235.55M | 279.61M | 178.32M | 169.46M | 135.89M | 132.79M |
| Net Income | 121.27M | 115.63M | 74.19M | 77.71M | 70.93M | 74.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 1.52B | 1.43B | 1.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.86M | 129.61M | 88.80M | 86.07M | 78.32M | 159.12M |
| Total Debt | 542.46M | 572.74M | 675.42M | 632.89M | 569.36M | 406.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 724.80M | 742.80M | 801.84M | 825.04M | 779.73M | 582.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 765.12M | 766.29M | 724.28M | 683.06M | 630.80M | 607.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 176.84M | 186.64M | 58.06M | -36.12M | -210.94M | -41.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 188.26M | 190.70M | 107.99M | 103.85M | 48.22M | 111.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.58M | -26.22M | -50.38M | -99.14M | -189.78M | -196.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -157.87M | -124.28M | -52.07M | 40.76M | 112.46M | 48.57M |
St Joe Company Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.51, above the 50-day MA of 66.89, and above the 200-day MA of 65.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JOE.
St Joe Company Risk Analysis
St Joe Company disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. St Joe Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
2 New RisksSt Joe Company Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
VTMX80Outperform- JOE68Neutral
FOR68Neutral
HHH65Neutral
FPH58Neutral
MLP46Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTMX | 80Outperform | $3.65B | 6.76 | 16.39% | 2.17% | 17.70% | 7191.37% |
| JOE | 68Neutral | $4.06B | 33.46 | 15.84% | 0.93% | 11.10% | 17.69% |
| FOR | 68Neutral | $1.17B | 7.93 | 7.73% | ― | -1.64% | -15.37% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| HHH | 65Neutral | $5.01B | 28.45 | 3.92% | ― | 43.49% | -43.77% |
| FPH | 58Neutral | $490.87M | 11.01 | 3.47% | ― | -39.15% | -69.83% |
| MLP | 46Neutral | $300.07M | -65.62 | -14.25% | ― | -4.11% | 66.64% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE | St. Joe Co | 70.36 | 13.91 | 24.63% | |
| FOR | Forestar | 22.30 | -1.04 | -4.46% | |
| HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | 83.02 | -0.07 | -0.08% | |
| MLP | Maui Land & Pineapple | 14.70 | 0.21 | 1.45% | |
| FPH | Five Point Holdings | 4.48 | -1.82 | -28.89% | |
| VTMX | Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. ADR | 37.45 | 8.11 | 27.63% |
St Joe Company Corporate Events
St Joe Company Reports Q3 Results, Raises Dividend
PositiveOn October 28, 2026, St. Joe reported third-quarter 2026 results showing a 3% decline in revenue to $156.2 million and a 5% drop in net income to $36.9 million, largely due to the absence of a one-time senior living property sale booked in the prior...
St Joe Company Posts Record Q2 Results, Boosts Dividend
PositiveOn July 29, 2026, The St. Joe Company reported sharply improved second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, highlighted by record second-quarter net income of $40.5 million, up 37% year-on-year, and a 23% rise in quarterly revenue to $158.8 million,...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026