Tesla (1TSLA) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Tesla said it is aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030, is almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027, expects EU-wide FSD approval within a few months and would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1, expects to reach 20,000 Optimus units a week in probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, with issues solved around the end of next year and deliveries to companies outside Tesla then, plans to integrate AI5 into Optimus in approximately April of next year and in volume around April of next year, expects Cybercab customer deliveries by the end of this year, 2026, and expansion to other cities before the end of this year, sees a path to the $0.30 Robotaxi target, expects 24/7 operation and higher-speed roads hopefully by the end of this year, expects Robotaxi to become a significant part of revenue and profitability in '27, noticeable probably in Q2 and probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year, plans to commission Terafab machinery in the first half of next year, make a first test chip around May or June, produce some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028, and begin real production in late '28, with capital in the tens of billions through early 2028 and probably north of $100 billion long term; CapEx guidance is approximately $20 billion for the current year, with capacity to borrow up to $30 billion, no draws planned under the new facilities in this calendar year, and CapEx expected to become more meaningful next year and noticeable in the tens of billions in '28.