Moderna (1MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Moderna

(Milan:1MRNA)

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Positive Factors

Expanding vaccine portfolioThe expanding respiratory portfolio reduces reliance on a single COVID product and creates additional commercial opportunities across influenza, COVID, and combination vaccines. Multiple approvals also provide a broader platform for recurring seasonal demand and international market penetration.

Negative Factors

Persistent cash burnMeaningfully negative operating and free cash flow leave Moderna dependent on existing liquidity or external financing while its portfolio matures. Continued burn can restrict investment flexibility, weaken resilience during delays, and make a sustained return to profitability more important.

Moderna (1MRNA) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Market Cap: EUR 100.63B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 36.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -35.2
Beta (1Y): 0.34
Revenue Growth: 8.89%
EPS Growth: 18.53%
Country: Italy
Employees: 4,700
Sector: Healthcare
Sector Strength: 51
Industry: Biotechnology

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical...

Moderna Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.98%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive, driven by 29% third-quarter revenue growth, a raised full-year revenue outlook of 15% to 25% growth, improved cash and cost frameworks, expanded respiratory-vaccine approvals, and landmark Phase 3 melanoma efficacy results. The main negative developments were the 54% increase in cost of sales, the $900 million litigation charge, the norovirus program missing early-success criteria, slightly lower U.S. COVID vaccination trends, and remaining regulatory and development uncertainty in several programs. Highlights significantly outweighed lowlights.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Revenue Growth and Profitability

Management described a strong third quarter, with the CEO citing $1.4 billion in revenue, representing 29% year-over-year growth, and $200 million in net income. The CFO reported total revenue of $1.3 billion, also up 29% year over year, $162 million in net income, and diluted earnings per share of $0.38 versus a loss per share of $0.51 last year.

Negative Updates

Cost of Sales Increased Significantly

Third-quarter cost of sales was $318 million, or 24% of revenue, representing a 54% increase from the third quarter of last year. Management attributed the increase primarily to higher product sales volume and other manufacturing-related costs.

Company Guidance

For 2026, Moderna increased its full year revenue framework to a range of 15% to 25% growth, exceeding its prior framework of up to 10% growth, and expects an approximately even split between US and international revenue. Cost of sales is unchanged at $1.7 billion, including $900 million of expense related to the previously announced litigation settlement charge; R&D expense is $2.7 billion, SG&A expenses are approximately $1 billion, total GAAP operating expenses excluding the $900 million litigation charge are $4.5 billion, and cash costs are $3.8 billion. Taxes are expected to be negligible, capital expenditures are estimated at $200 million, and cash and investments are projected to be between $8.1 billion and $8.3 billion at the end of 2026; excluding the $2.6 billion net proceedss from the convertible note and cap call transaction, cash is projected to be $5.5 billion to $5.7 billion, with no additional drawdown from the remaining $900 million undrawn credit facility assumed.

Moderna Risk Analysis

Moderna disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Tech & Innovation - Risks related to the company’s reliance on technology and ability to make innovative products

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Moderna Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

IT:1MRNA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTGX	72Outperform	$8.89B	26.14	42.83%	―	163.69%	574.89%
RYTM	64Neutral	$7.90B	-38.67	-83.68%	―	61.04%	6.14%
RVMD	54Neutral	$41.76B	-19.75	-91.93%	―	―	-75.59%
Sector *	51Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IONS	42Neutral	$4.69B	-8.53	-120.44%	―	-0.79%	-106.48%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IT:1MRNA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
IT:1MRNA	Moderna	222.15	200.15	909.77%
IONS	Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.	28.33	-41.51	-59.44%
PTGX	Protagonist Therapeutics Inc	134.86	51.62	62.01%
RYTM	Rhythm Pharmaceuticals	112.16	16.27	16.97%
RVMD	Revolution Medicines, Inc.	180.70	116.32	180.68%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Moderna AI Stock Analysis