Mattel (1MAT) AI Stock Analysis

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Mattel

(Milan:1MAT)

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Positive Factors

Owned Brand PortfolioA broad portfolio of established owned franchises gives Mattel durable consumer recognition and multiple avenues for repeat product launches. The company can extend these brands across toys, content, licensing, publishing, and digital experiences, supporting resilience and monetization beyond individual product cycles.

Negative Factors

Demand DecelerationBroad point-of-sale deceleration suggests that near-term demand is softer across major markets rather than isolated to one product line. If sustained, weaker retailer sell-through could limit replenishment, reduce operating leverage, and make growth more dependent on successful launches and market-share gains.

Mattel (1MAT) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Market Cap: EUR 4.59B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 131
Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
Beta (1Y): 0.89
Revenue Growth: 1.69%
EPS Growth: 26.74%
Country: Italy
Employees: 31,000
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Leisure

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods. The company's operations are segmented into North America, International, and th...

Mattel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:5.10%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNegative

The call presented strong third-quarter results, led by higher sales, profitability, vehicles, Hot Wheels, partner brands, and regional growth. However, the tone was cautious because point-of-sale trends decelerated broadly, full-year guidance was revised to lower sales and profitability ranges, Barbie and several categories remained under pressure, and underlying gross-margin performance was affected by inflation and higher royalties when excluding tariff refunds.

Positive Updates

Q3 Net Sales Growth

Third-quarter net sales grew 4% as reported and 3% in constant currency to $1.81 billion.

Negative Updates

Lowered Full-Year 2026 Outlook

Mattel revised its full-year guidance to constant-currency net sales growth of 1%-4%, adjusted gross margin of roughly 48%, adjusted operating income of $500 million-$570 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.05-$1.20. The revised outlook primarily reflects softer-than-expected point of sale, including deceleration late in the third quarter that continued into the fourth quarter.

Company Guidance

For the remainder of 2026, Mattel revised full-year guidance to net sales growth in the range of 1%-4% in constant currency, adjusted gross margin of roughly 48%, adjusted operating income in the range of $500 million-$570 million, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.05-$1.20; foreign exchange is expected to have roughly a 1% benefit on full-year net sales based on current spot rates, and the adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be roughly 23% for the full year. The revised outlook reflects softer-than-expected point of sales, POS, including a deceleration in trends during the latter part of the third quarter that has continued into the fourth quarter with similar trends across major markets, excludes the benefits of tariff refunds recognized year to date and any additional tariff refunds that may be recognized during the remainder of the year, and the company expects to provide 2027 guidance in February 2027.

Mattel Risk Analysis

Mattel disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Mattel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

IT:1MAT against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JAKK	81Outperform	$419.18M	16.19	10.30%	2.72%	9.22%	330.79%
ESCA	73Outperform	$288.62M	12.10	13.48%	2.85%	0.05%	90.86%
HAS	71Outperform	$17.04B	18.32	136.37%	2.26%	18.79%	―
FNKO	61Neutral	$406.07M	93.86	1.96%	―	1.21%	―
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PLAY	46Neutral	$280.73M	-3.14	-86.54%	―	-1.49%	-795.27%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IT:1MAT and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
IT:1MAT	Mattel Inc	14.42	-2.45	-14.52%
ESCA	Escalade	21.29	9.12	74.95%
HAS	Hasbro	124.02	47.59	62.26%
JAKK	Jakks Pacific	36.76	20.62	127.74%
PLAY	Dave & Busters Entertainment Inc	8.03	-6.94	-46.36%
FNKO	Funko Inc	7.19	3.78	110.85%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Mattel AI Stock Analysis