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IREN
(NASDAQ:IREN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(21.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
The score is held back primarily by volatile financial performance (sharp swing to a large 2026 loss and uneven cash-flow history). Offsetting that, earnings-call signals are notably constructive (large contracted ARR, accelerating pricing, and strong customer/technology validation) and technicals show moderately positive near-term momentum. Valuation is weaker due to negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Contracted AI Cloud Demand
Large contracted ARR and an operating Microsoft deployment provide visible demand beyond the legacy mining business. Multiyear customer commitments can support utilization, financing access, and recurring revenue as additional AI capacity is delivered.
Negative Factors
Severe Profit Volatility
The sharp move from profit to a very large loss shows that IREN has not yet demonstrated stable earnings through its business transition. Volatile margins and deeply negative 2026 EBITDA make future profitability dependent on successful AI capacity deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted AI Cloud Demand
Large contracted ARR and an operating Microsoft deployment provide visible demand beyond the legacy mining business. Multiyear customer commitments can support utilization, financing access, and recurring revenue as additional AI capacity is delivered.
Read all positive factors
IREN (IREN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)41.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.68
Revenue Growth42.04%
EPS Growth-367.00%
CountryUS
Employees685
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.82
Shares Outstanding394,058,650
10 Day Avg. Volume33,494,078
30 Day Avg. Volume41,659,308
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)3.45
Price to Sales (P/S)20.45
P/FCF Ratio-6.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.00Price Target Upside102.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.82B
IREN Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
IREN Limited, established in 2018 and based in Sydney, Australia, operates a comprehensive, vertically integrated data center business spanning Australia and Canada. The company possesses and manages all essential infrastructure, including its com...
How the Company Makes Money
IREN primarily makes money by operating Bitcoin mining data centers. It invests in and operates mining facilities (power infrastructure, land/buildings, electrical distribution, cooling, networking) and deploys specialized mining hardware (ASICs) ...
IREN Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong commercial traction and market validation: $4.0 billion of ARR contracted, validating demand; accelerating pricing (3-year +125% since November), major GPU financings ($6.5B in recent months) and delivery of Horizon 1 with NVIDIA validation are material positives. The company is in an aggressive scaling phase with large near‑term CapEx ($25B–$30B FY27), timing risks for revenue recognition as capacity comes online late in the December quarter, and substantial noncash impairments and a heavy net loss tied to the transition away from mining. Overall the positives — sizable contracted ARR, robust financing capability, pricing momentum, technical validation and a deep pipeline — materially outweigh the transitional lowlights tied to decommissioning and high near-term spend.Positive Updates
Contracted ARR and Customer Wins
IREN has $4.0 billion of ARR contracted for 2026 capacity (from <10% of its >5 GW portfolio). $1.0 billion of that ARR is operating today following Horizon 1 acceptance; company expects >$4.0 billion ARR by the end of the December quarter (already under contract). New multiyear cloud contracts signed with Cohere, Prometheus, Perplexity, Figure AI, Fal AI, Higgsfield AI and an unnamed leading frontier AI lab.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Transition Impact
Q4 revenue was $137.2 million (AI cloud revenue $70.5 million). Revenue declined $7.6 million sequentially due to decommissioning of mining hardware ahead of GPU installs; cost of revenue fell $6.6 million largely for the same reason.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Contracted ARR and Customer Wins
IREN has $4.0 billion of ARR contracted for 2026 capacity (from <10% of its >5 GW portfolio). $1.0 billion of that ARR is operating today following Horizon 1 acceptance; company expects >$4.0 billion ARR by the end of the December quarter (already under contract). New multiyear cloud contracts signed with Cohere, Prometheus, Perplexity, Figure AI, Fal AI, Higgsfield AI and an unnamed leading frontier AI lab.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to heavy near‑term growth and funding: FY‑27 CapEx of approximately $25–$30 billion (covering 2026 deployments, remaining air‑cooled 2027 builds and a large portion of 2H‑2027 liquid‑cooled work), roughly 300 MW of IT load delivered in 2026 and another 0.5 GW in 2027 (taking gross platform capacity to ~1.2 GW in 2027), more than $4 billion of ARR already contracted (with $1 billion operating today and >$4 billion expected by the end of the December quarter), an announced portfolio of >5 GW and a multi‑GW pipeline, FY‑26 headcount nearly tripled with >4,000 people mobilized, GPU financing momentum (≈$6.5 billion raised in the past 3 months; $3.6 billion at ~6% for Microsoft; $2.8 billion equipment financing including $2.4 billion at 9%), ~ $19 billion secured funding over 12 months (~$16 billion from prepayments/GPU financing/convertibles and ~$3 billion equity), ~ $14 billion of existing cash/committed GPU financing/prepayments (including $7.6 billion cash at 30 June, $1.7 billion restricted), targeting an additional ~$8 billion of GPU financing/prepayments, customer prepayments funding ~45–55% of GPU CapEx (in some packages exceeding 100% of GPU CapEx with financing), expected data center and GPU CapEx to rise ~15–20% with revenue increases expected to outpace that, and pricing trends showing 3‑year contract pricing up ~125% since November and 5‑year up ~70% (recent 3‑year deals >$20M per IT MW with active discussions around ~$25M per IT MW and ~2‑year compute payback); mining operations to be effectively decommissioned by end‑December 2026.IREN Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 707.00M | 501.02M | 187.19M | 75.51M | 59.04M |
| Gross Profit | 487.30M | 342.03M | 82.12M | 21.12M | 51.59M |
| EBITDA | 34.70M | 285.68M | 25.10M | -122.56M | 16.14M |
| Net Income | -702.60M | 86.94M | -28.92M | -171.83M | -419.77M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.79B | 2.94B | 1.15B | 332.07M | 570.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.90B | 564.53M | 411.13M | 68.89M | 109.97M |
| Total Debt | 7.84B | 964.23M | 1.32M | 1.45M | 108.29M |
| Total Liabilities | 11.60B | 1.12B | 55.35M | 26.71M | 133.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.19B | 1.82B | 1.10B | 305.36M | 437.36M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.23B | -1.13B | -427.19M | -110.02M | -272.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.10B | 245.89M | 52.22M | 5.73M | 21.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.72B | -1.38B | -498.47M | -71.47M | -318.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.68B | 1.29B | 782.13M | 28.56M | 372.04M |
IREN Technical Analysis
Positive
39.58
Price Trends
40.38
Positive
47.12
Negative
45.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.90
Negative
59.19
Neutral
44.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IREN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.83, below the 50-day MA of 40.38, and below the 200-day MA of 45.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IREN.
IREN Risk Analysis
IREN disclosed 100 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. IREN reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our future financial performance is subject to assumptions and projections that may not materialize. Q2, 2026
2.
If our estimates or judgments relating to our critical accounting policies prove to be incorrect or financial reporting standards or interpretations change, our operating results could be adversely affected. Q2, 2026
3.
We may seek to raise additional capital through offerings of debt, equity or equity-linked securities or other financing arrangements, which could adversely affect the market price of our Ordinary shares, dilute the economic and voting interests of our shareholders, rank senior to our Ordinary shares and subject us to terms that restrict our business operations, and such financing may not be available on favorable terms, if at all. Q2, 2026
IREN Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
56 Neutral | $18.37B | -25.65 | -22.97% | ― | 42.04% | -367.00% | |
55 Neutral | $623.90M | -2.01 | -46.72% | ― | 23.36% | -150.86% | |
54 Neutral | $7.61B | -6.39 | -156.28% | ― | 20.30% | -525.74% | |
53 Neutral | $8.91B | -6.45 | -48.36% | 12.20% | 24.51% | -842.33% | |
53 Neutral | $735.48M | -3.54 | -29.89% | ― | 2495.03% | 86.92% | |
52 Neutral | $3.72B | -3.86 | -75.24% | 0.70% | 7.49% | -468.86% |
* Financial Sector Average
IREN
IREN
46.68
4.78
11.41%
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IREN Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
IREN Advances Microsoft AI Cloud Deal with Horizon 1
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, IREN announced that Horizon 1, the first of four 50MW direct-to-chip liquid-cooled AI cloud deployments at its Childress, Texas campus, was delivered to and accepted by Microsoft under a five-year, $9.7 billion cloud services c...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
IREN strengthens AI cloud platform with Mirantis acquisition
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 3, 2026, IREN completed the acquisition of Mirantis, Inc., a leading provider of cloud software and services that has served more than 1,500 enterprise customers globally. The deal, announced on August 4, 2026, was funded through the iss...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
IREN grants significant multi-year RSU awards to co-CEOs
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, IREN Limited’s board approved large restricted stock unit awards of 9,099,328 RSUs each to co-CEOs William and Daniel Roberts, with grants to be made around July 1, 2026. The awards, unanimously backed by independent direct...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.