Want to see MC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Moelis
(NYSE:MC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$73.00
â–²(8.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
MC scores well primarily on improved financial performance and strong cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings-call outlook featuring record revenue, margin improvement, and disciplined shareholder returns. The score is tempered by mixed near-term technical positioning (below key short-term moving averages) and the inherent cyclicality and expense/headwind risks highlighted by management.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Moelis converts earnings into cash effectively: FCF (~$433M) runs close to net income (~90% TTM). Durable free cash generation supports reinvestment, M&A coverage, and consistent shareholder returns (dividend and buybacks), providing a structural buffer through deal-cycle swings.
Negative Factors
Earnings cyclicality
Moelis’s transaction-driven model produces lumpy, large-ticket revenue that can reverse quickly; the 2023 loss followed by rebound underscores forecasting risk. Over 2–6 months, deal timing and concentration make near-term revenue and margin visibility inherently uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Moelis converts earnings into cash effectively: FCF (~$433M) runs close to net income (~90% TTM). Durable free cash generation supports reinvestment, M&A coverage, and consistent shareholder returns (dividend and buybacks), providing a structural buffer through deal-cycle swings.
Read all positive factors
Moelis (MC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.31B
Dividend Yield3.8%
Average Volume (3M)917.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.3
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth13.69%
EPS Growth12.33%
CountryUS
Employees1,416
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.03
Shares Outstanding74,374,016
10 Day Avg. Volume725,252
30 Day Avg. Volume917,467
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)9.07
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.20Price Target Upside6.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
Moelis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moelis & Company operates as a dedicated investment banking advisory firm, offering expert counsel on a wide range of corporate finance matters. Its core services include strategic guidance for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), corporate recapitaliz...
How the Company Makes Money
Moelis primarily makes money by earning advisory fees for investment-banking services. Its core revenue stream is transaction-based advisory revenue, typically recognized when client engagements reach key milestones or close (for example, completi...
Moelis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial performance with record Q1 revenue (+4% YoY), margin improvement (adjusted pretax margin 15%), strong deal flow and an all-time-high pipeline, meaningful talent hires, and disciplined capital returns (cash $354M, no debt, $171M returned). Near-term headwinds were acknowledged — geopolitical uncertainty, disruptions in parts of private credit and AI-driven repricing in software have weighed on some deal activity and certain product revenues (CSA/restructuring) and have led to increased non-compensation costs. On balance, management framed challenges as near-term/timing-related while emphasizing durable pipeline strength and growth investments.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Reported record Q1 revenues of $320 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Macro and Geopolitical Headwinds
Management cited headwinds from the war in the Middle East and other geopolitical uncertainty that have created near-term disruption and could elongate deal timelines.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Reported record Q1 revenues of $320 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moelis guided to a constructive 2026 outlook anchored by record Q1 revenue of $320 million (up 4% YoY), a roughly 2/3 M&A / 1/3 non‑M&A mix, and an adjusted pretax margin of 15% (vs. 14% LY); they reiterated a full‑year adjusted compensation ratio target of ~65.8% (down from 69% in Q1 2025), reported Q1 compensation expense of ~$210 million, and disclosed adjusted non‑comp expenses of $67 million (21% of revenue) with full‑year non‑comp expense growth expected to be similar to 2025. Balance‑sheet and capital‑return metrics included $354 million of cash, no debt, a $0.65 quarterly dividend, 1.9 million shares repurchased in Q1 at an average $61.40 (1.0M for tax withholding, 895k open market), and ~ $171 million returned to shareholders in the quarter (repurchases offset >50% of annual equity issuance). Operationally they noted sponsor M&A revenues grew double‑digits, PCA is scaling (7 senior bankers focused on GP‑led secondaries), 8 MD hires YTD (2 joined, 6 to join), and a near‑all‑time‑high pipeline with record announced transaction activity (notable mandates: Clear Channel $6.2B, Tri Pointe $4.5B, Kennedy Wilson $9.5B, TowerBrook $1.2B continuation, X‑Energy $1.2B IPO).Moelis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.19B | 854.75M | 985.30M | 1.54B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.50B | 364.39M | 140.00M | 367.10M | 626.70M |
| EBITDA | 313.64M | 339.35M | 183.39M | -32.03M | 224.07M | 503.16M |
| Net Income | 228.26M | 233.04M | 136.02M | -24.70M | 150.34M | 365.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.81B | 1.38B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 207.74M | 508.60M | 412.47M | 186.42M | 206.79M | 520.21M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 267.15M | 223.24M | 215.68M | 192.76M | 191.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 766.60M | 1.13B | 899.55M | 817.30M | 757.93M | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 505.81M | 568.44M | 441.61M | 352.14M | 444.50M | 489.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 435.52M | 539.97M | 415.39M | 141.78M | 27.04M | 920.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 490.45M | 576.30M | 427.49M | 158.47M | 32.99M | 936.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.36M | -195.97M | 17.11M | 48.57M | -11.18M | -17.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -394.02M | -283.90M | -215.10M | -229.17M | -326.90M | -602.54M |
Moelis Technical Analysis
Positive
67.00
Price Trends
67.01
Positive
63.69
Positive
65.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
50.49
Neutral
41.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.24, below the 50-day MA of 67.01, and above the 200-day MA of 65.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MC.
Moelis Risk Analysis
Moelis disclosed 7 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moelis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moelis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $5.31B | 23.33 | 42.00% | 3.88% | 13.69% | 12.33% | |
73 Outperform | $11.79B | 17.70 | 53.00% | 1.00% | 45.68% | 59.92% | |
73 Outperform | $9.72B | 22.77 | 17.78% | 1.78% | 1.59% | -1.40% | |
72 Outperform | $4.26B | 22.70 | 71.16% | 0.59% | 22.91% | 21.48% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $27.02B | 30.41 | 18.45% | 0.37% | 38.08% | -22.75% | |
64 Neutral | $3.96B | 18.69 | 25.84% | 4.51% | 5.74% | -30.53% |
* Financial Sector Average
MC
Moelis
67.08
1.17
1.77%
EVR
Evercore Partners
320.56
29.59
10.17%
LAZ
Lazard
42.38
-5.86
-12.15%
LPLA
LPL Financial
353.70
-14.86
-4.03%
HLI
Houlihan Lokey
125.49
-61.46
-32.88%
PJT
PJT Partners
168.31
-9.60
-5.40%
Moelis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Moelis Reports Record Q2 2026 Revenues and Earnings
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Moelis Company reported record second-quarter and first-half 2026 revenues of $409.4 million and $729.2 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 12% and 9%. GAAP diluted earnings were $0.62 per share for the ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Moelis Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Moelis Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors voted on board elections, executive compensation, and auditor ratification. Stockholders elected seven directors, including Chairman and CEO Kenneth Mo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.