Nayax (NYAX) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of $510–$520M revenue (organic growth 22–25%; H1 organic 24%) and adjusted EBITDA of $85–$90M (~17% margin) but revised free cash flow conversion down to ~5–10% of adjusted EBITDA due to accelerated investments; they expect adjusted OpEx of roughly $42M/quarter in Q3–Q4 and full‑year stock‑based compensation of ~ $27M (~5% of revenue). Key trailing metrics cited: Q2 revenue $123M (+28% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $14M, adjusted net income $6M, total dollar transaction value $2.1B, ATV $2.52, ARPU $251, take rate 2.62%, recurring revenue 72% (recurring growth 24%), installed base >1.55M devices, 125,000 customers, hardware revenue $35M (hardware margin 28.1%), recurring gross margin 54%, processing margin ~41%, SaaS margin ~76%; balance sheet/cash metrics include cash & short‑term deposits $304M, total debt $349M, H1 cash from operations $2.3M and Q2 free cash flow −$13.1M. They also reiterated strategic actions: Connecticut bank‑charter review (~6 months) with $10M initial funding (~$1.5M restricted) aiming to be operational in 2027 with revenue acceleration into 2028, and an M&A cadence of ~2–3 deals/year.