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Icf International (ICFI)
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Icf International (ICFI) AI Stock Analysis

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ICFI

Icf International

(NASDAQ:ICFI)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(14.60% Upside)
ICF International's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, offset by bearish technical indicators and challenges in federal government revenue. The valuation is fair, but the low dividend yield may limit appeal to income investors.
Positive Factors
Diversified Client Base
ICF's diversified client base across commercial, state, local, and international sectors reduces dependency on any single revenue stream, enhancing resilience against sector-specific downturns.
Commercial Energy Growth
Strong growth in commercial energy reflects ICF's ability to capitalize on trends like energy efficiency and grid resilience, supporting long-term revenue and margin expansion.
Leadership Transition
Leadership changes, with experienced executives taking key roles, can drive strategic initiatives and operational efficiency, positively impacting long-term company performance.
Negative Factors
Federal Government Revenue Decline
Significant decline in federal revenue due to contract cancellations and delays poses a risk to ICF's financial stability, given its historical reliance on government contracts.
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown's impact on revenue highlights vulnerability to political factors, potentially affecting cash flow and financial planning if such events recur.
Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth
Declining free cash flow growth can limit ICF's ability to invest in growth opportunities, pay down debt, or return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term financial flexibility.

Icf International (ICFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Icf International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionICF International (ICFI) is a global consulting services company that provides a wide range of services in sectors such as energy, environment, and public health. The firm specializes in delivering data-driven solutions, policy analysis, and strategic consulting to government agencies, corporations, and non-profits. ICFI's core products include research and evaluation services, digital solutions, and communications strategies aimed at fostering sustainable development and enhancing operational efficiency for its clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyICF International generates revenue primarily through consulting contracts and project-based work. The company earns money by providing services that include program management, policy analysis, and technical assistance to clients across various sectors. Key revenue streams include federal government contracts, where ICFI partners with agencies on projects related to energy efficiency, climate change, and public health initiatives. Additionally, ICFI generates income from its commercial clients in industries such as transportation, health, and environmental services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with other firms and organizations, which can enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach. Overall, ICFI's diversified service portfolio and established reputation in consulting enable it to maintain a steady flow of revenue.

Icf International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong growth in non-federal client revenue and commercial energy business, improved EBITDA margins, and robust contract awards supporting future growth. However, significant challenges were noted in the federal government segment due to contract cancellations and the government shutdown's impact, along with delayed international contract ramp-ups and increased tax rates.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Non-Federal Client Revenue
Revenues from commercial clients, state and local, and international government clients increased by 13.8%, now accounting for 57% of the quarter's revenues, up from 46% last year.
Commercial Energy Business Expansion
Commercial energy revenues increased 24% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for energy efficiency programs and expertise in electrification, grid resilience, and affordability.
Improved Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Despite reduced revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 10 basis points due to strong growth in higher-margin commercial revenues and careful cost management.
Robust Contract Awards and Pipeline
Contract awards surpassed previous year levels with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.53. Year-to-date contract awards reached $1.8 billion with an $8.4 billion pipeline supporting future growth.
Negative Updates
Federal Government Revenue Decline
Federal government revenues declined 29.8% year-over-year due to contract cancellations and procurement delays, especially in programmatic public health and human services areas.
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown led to an estimated reduction of $8 million in revenue and $2.5 million in gross profit for October, with further impacts expected if the shutdown continues.
Delayed Ramp-up of International Contracts
Delays in the ramp-up of international government contracts contributed to lower-than-expected revenue, although improvements are anticipated in 2026.
Increased Tax Rate
The tax rate increased to 22.7% from 13.8% the previous year due to a one-time negative tax adjustment and new legislation.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter earnings conference call for ICF, management provided guidance highlighting several metrics indicating both challenges and opportunities. Revenues from commercial clients, state and local, and international government clients rose by 13.8%, comprising 57% of the quarter's total revenues, up from 46% the previous year. The commercial energy segment saw a robust 24% growth, leading to a 10 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin. Despite these positive trends, the federal government revenues declined by 29.8% year-over-year due to contract cancellations and procurement slowdowns, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which is expected to reduce October revenues by approximately $8 million and gross profit by $2.5 million. The company expects to manage through these challenges, maintaining a book-to-bill ratio of 1.53 and a year-to-date contract award total of $1.8 billion, with a pipeline valued at $8.4 billion supporting future growth prospects.

Icf International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ICF International demonstrates stable financial performance with consistent profitability and manageable leverage. However, the recent decline in revenue and free cash flow growth in the TTM period warrants attention.
Income Statement
75
Positive
ICF International shows a stable revenue base with a slight decline in the TTM period. The gross profit margin is healthy, although it has decreased from previous years. Net profit margin remains consistent, indicating stable profitability. However, the decline in revenue growth rate in the TTM period is a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved over time, indicating better financial leverage management. Return on equity is stable, reflecting consistent profitability. The equity ratio suggests a balanced capital structure, but the high debt levels in previous years are a potential risk.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow remains positive, but there is a decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the recent decline in free cash flow growth is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.93B2.02B1.96B1.78B1.55B1.51B
Gross Profit542.02M737.77M698.22M645.54M573.48M534.47M
EBITDA200.93M221.12M196.97M157.18M150.81M122.04M
Net Income98.84M110.17M82.61M64.24M71.13M54.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.11B2.07B2.01B2.09B1.85B1.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.99M4.96M9.45M11.26M8.25M13.84M
Total Debt623.95M602.27M642.67M776.39M648.31M452.18M
Total Liabilities1.09B1.08B1.09B1.24B1.05B920.33M
Stockholders Equity1.02B982.46M917.59M853.21M803.47M746.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow140.99M150.11M130.05M137.73M90.27M155.46M
Operating Cash Flow161.60M171.54M152.38M162.21M110.20M173.15M
Investing Cash Flow-75.57M-74.81M-3.67M-258.84M-194.48M-270.95M
Financing Cash Flow-40.53M-86.90M-152.59M90.37M23.23M169.96M

Icf International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price80.28
Price Trends
50DMA
93.24
Negative
100DMA
90.80
Negative
200DMA
91.92
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.21
Positive
RSI
26.19
Positive
STOCH
20.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 80.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.45, below the 50-day MA of 93.24, and below the 200-day MA of 91.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.19 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICFI.

Icf International Risk Analysis

Icf International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Icf International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Icf International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$1.25B23.0829.05%1.06%9.28%44.19%
$5.09B20.9813.30%-0.95%-10.54%
$2.85B27.7221.20%12.50%29.40%
$1.48B13.9611.09%0.70%-0.47%10.03%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
$143.58M-0.75-61.44%9.77%-10.83%-1669.11%
$136.06M-1.52-44.74%-9.11%-6082.17%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ICFI
Icf International
80.28
-88.24
-52.36%
CRAI
Cra International
190.49
5.36
2.90%
FORR
Forrester Research
7.13
-7.56
-51.46%
FCN
FTI Consulting
165.01
-34.49
-17.29%
HURN
Huron Consulting
164.44
46.24
39.12%
RGP
Resources Connection
4.40
-3.12
-41.49%

Icf International Corporate Events

ICF International Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Oct 31, 2025

ICF International is a global solutions and technology provider specializing in a diverse range of services, including business analysis, digital strategy, and data science, serving both public and private sector clients. In its third quarter of 2025, ICF reported revenues of $465 million, with a notable increase in revenues from commercial clients and state, local, and international government clients, which now account for 57% of total revenues. The company also highlighted a 24% increase in revenues from commercial energy clients, driven by strong demand for its energy efficiency programs.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
ICF International Announces Leadership Changes Amid Growth
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

ICF International reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting a 14% increase in revenues from commercial, state, local, and international government clients, which now account for 57% of total revenues. The company experienced robust growth in commercial energy client revenues, driven by strong demand for its energy efficiency programs. Despite a decline in U.S. federal government revenue, ICF maintained its margin expansion through effective cost management and a favorable business mix. The company announced executive leadership changes to support future growth, with James Morgan taking on the additional role of CFO and Anne Choate becoming president. ICF’s business development pipeline remains strong, with significant contract awards and a total backlog of $3.5 billion, positioning the company for a return to growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $107.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ICF International Announces Executive Leadership Changes
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

ICF International announced significant executive leadership changes effective January 1, 2026. Anne Choate will be appointed as President, succeeding John Wasson, and will focus on maximizing growth opportunities and expanding the use of technology and AI. James Morgan will assume the combined role of Chief Operating and Financial Officer, following Barry Broadus’s planned retirement as CFO. These changes are aimed at supporting ICF’s future growth and enhancing its operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $107.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ICF International to Attend Canaccord Genuity Conference
Neutral
Aug 6, 2025

ICF International announced its participation in the Canaccord Genuity 45th Annual Growth Conference on August 13, 2025, in Boston. The company’s CEO, John Wasson, and EVP, Anne Choate, will engage in a fireside chat, which will be accessible via a live webcast, highlighting ICF’s ongoing engagement with industry stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

ICF International’s Earnings Call: Mixed Outlook with Growth Opportunities
Aug 2, 2025

The recent earnings call from ICF International presented a mixed outlook, highlighting both opportunities and challenges. The company reported strong growth in its commercial and non-federal government segments, which helped offset significant declines in federal revenues. Effective cost management and a robust book-to-bill ratio were emphasized, indicating a stable future outlook. However, challenges in the federal market and uncertainties in disaster management were noted as potential risks.

ICF International Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 1, 2025

ICF International is a global solutions and technology provider specializing in energy efficiency, digital transformation, and disaster management, serving both public and private sectors. In its second quarter of 2025, ICF International reported a 27% increase in commercial energy revenue, maintaining its full-year guidance and projecting a return to growth in 2026. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $476 million, with a net income of $24 million. ICF’s commercial revenue saw a significant rise, driven by its leadership in energy efficiency programs, while federal government revenue faced challenges due to contract funding curtailments. The company achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.30 with $621 million in contract awards, indicating strong future business prospects. Looking ahead, ICF remains optimistic about its performance, expecting stable revenues from state and local governments and continued demand from commercial energy clients, positioning itself for growth in 2026.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ICF International Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Revenue Growth
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, ICF International’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, payable on October 10, 2025. The company’s second quarter results for 2025 showed a 27% revenue growth in commercial energy, with total revenue reaching $476 million. Despite a decline in federal government revenue, ICF maintained strong performance in non-federal sectors, leading to a robust contract award total of $621 million. The company continues to invest in growth markets and expand capabilities in AI and other technologies, with a positive outlook for future revenue and earnings growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICFI) stock is a Hold with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icf International stock, see the ICFI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025