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Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) AI Stock Analysis

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HNRG

Hallador Energy Company

(NASDAQ:HNRG)

Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:$11.50â–²(2.50% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/08/26

The score is anchored by a strengthened balance sheet and improving long-term contracted revenue visibility from the earnings update and new contracts/financing. This is offset by weak technical momentum, pressured cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow), and an unfavorable reported valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support).

Positive Factors
Long-term power contractsThe Duke power and capacity agreements materially improve revenue visibility through 2035 and extend contracted Merom output through 2040. Escalating pricing and stronger coverage should reduce exposure to spot-market volatility while supporting more predictable cash generation.
Negative Factors
Higher project leverageThe Turtle Creek financing materially increases leverage and carries higher interest costs than traditional project financing. Covenants, cash sweeps, and coverage tests could constrain financial flexibility until the plant begins operating and the company can refinance on better terms.

Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%HNRG-44.86%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$528.95M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
855.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
326.2
Beta (1Y)
1.71
Revenue Growth
8.47%
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
633
Sector
Utilities
Sector Strength
66
Industry
Independent Power Producers

Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hallador Energy Company focuses on extracting steam coal from its operations within Indiana, primarily supplying this fuel to the electric power generation sector. The company's mining assets include the subterranean Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Mine 2...

How the Company Makes Money

Hallador Energy makes money through a combination of (1) coal sales and (2) power generation-related revenues (where applicable), along with other ancillary energy-related income streams. 1) Coal production and sales (core revenue stream) - Revenue m...

Hallador Energy Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 09, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-29.35%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 08, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a mixed near-term operating picture but an overall constructive long-term outlook. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a planned major outage and some unplanned downtime, producing a Q2 net loss, negative adjusted EBITDA, and negative operating cash flow. Offsetting those short-term headwinds, management reported meaningful strategic progress: a materially enlarged and multiyear forward sales book (~$2.4B segment-level), strong capacity revenue growth (+70% YoY), significant advancement on the Turtle Creek gas project with costs coming in below prior guidance (<$800M) and a faster COD target (H2 2028), visible equipment and interconnection progress, DOE grant negotiation for Merom, and deliberate financing efforts to limit equity dilution. Management expects sequential operational improvement in Q3 and highlighted robust market demand for capacity and energy, supporting long-term revenue visibility.

Positive Updates

Turtle Creek Project: Lowered Cost and Accelerated Schedule
Proposed 460 MW simple-cycle gas plant (Turtle Creek) now expected to cost below $800 million (~$1,700 per kW) with targeted commercial operations in H2 2028, an improvement from prior guidance of <$900M. Management expects equipment shipment in September and is targeting an FID and generator interconnection agreement in September pending MISO ERAS results.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Profitability Hit: Net Loss and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Q2 2026 net loss of $15.2 million versus net income of $8.2 million in prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2.9 million in Q2 2026 compared to positive $3.4 million a year earlier, reflecting outage-related impacts and higher purchased power costs.

Company Guidance

Hallador guided that Turtle Creek is a proposed 460‑MW simple‑cycle gas plant with turbine equipment expected to ship in September, MISO ERAS interconnection results due mid‑August, a targeted FID and generator interconnection agreement in September, a moved COD to H2 2028 and total project costs now expected below $800 million (≈$1,700/kW) with financing structured to seek little-to-no equity dilution; operationally Merom completed a ~60‑day Unit 1 outage, invested $26.3 million in Q2 capex (Q2 total capex $26.3M) and expects sequential generation volume, reliability and availability improvement in Q3, with full‑year 2026 maintenance capex to moderate and remain consistent with 2025 levels excluding Turtle Creek; on the commercial/financial side they report forward energy & capacity sales of ~ $1.6 billion (segment forward sales ≈ $2.4 billion, consolidated contracted revenue ≈ $1.8 billion including $236.5 million of third‑party forward coal sales), accredited capacity revenue up 70% YoY to $18.6 million, total energy sales volume +17% (avg delivered energy price $41.69/MWh vs $52.66 prior year), Q2 electric sales $59.5M, consolidated revenue $101.5M, Q2 net loss $15.2M, adjusted EBITDA −$2.9M, cash used in operations $23.9M, liquidity $84.2M (cash $29M + $55.2M revolver capacity), $45M bank debt outstanding after drawing a $45M delayed‑draw term loan on May 15, and DOE negotiation of a $27.2M grant for Merom ELG work with some spending/matching expected in Q4 and into 2027–28.

Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are uneven: income statement volatility is high with a sharp TTM revenue decline and near-breakeven profitability, while cash flow quality is pressured by meaningfully negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is a clear strength with materially reduced leverage and very low debt relative to equity, providing flexibility.

Income Statement

52Neutral

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

44Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue450.47M469.47M404.39M634.88M361.99M247.67M
Gross Profit-31.87M87.28M225.80M331.63M95.38M48.83M
EBITDA60.10M103.34M-157.81M126.95M75.01M44.76M
Net Income-912.00K41.87M-226.14M44.79M18.11M-3.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets468.04M437.46M369.12M589.78M654.08M353.98M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments28.98M10.07M7.23M2.84M6.43M2.55M
Total Debt46.78M39.07M53.05M94.54M102.20M107.77M
Total Liabilities277.40M277.63M264.83M321.19M439.05M167.75M
Stockholders Equity190.33M159.83M104.28M268.59M215.02M182.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-50.46M11.92M12.57M-15.94M149.00K19.92M
Operating Cash Flow27.96M81.13M65.93M59.41M54.17M47.97M
Investing Cash Flow-75.39M-66.55M-46.47M-75.29M-53.37M-27.52M
Financing Cash Flow49.99M-11.37M-14.43M16.57M-207.00K-26.69M

Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price11.22

Price Trends

50DMA14.22Negative
100DMA15.20Negative
200DMA16.53Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.84Negative
RSI35.71Neutral
STOCH54.68Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.53, below the 50-day MA of 14.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.

Hallador Energy Company Risk Analysis

Hallador Energy Company disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hallador Energy Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

HNRG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CEPUCEPU67Neutral$1.71B5.4718.17%10.14%50.81%107.08%
Sector *66Neutral$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
AESAES63Neutral$10.58B5.6437.94%4.75%8.22%88.79%
TLNTLN63Neutral$16.23B-84.93-14.09%―27.47%-208.54%
VSTVST60Neutral$46.44B23.0641.48%0.66%9.45%-6.51%
HNRGHNRG53Neutral$528.95M326.16-0.52%―8.47%―
NRGNRG52Neutral$20.19B25.2825.38%1.94%12.70%54.89%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%HNRGNRGAESVSTCEPUTLNDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HNRG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HNRGHallador Energy11.22-10.74-48.91%
NRGNRG Energy Inc96.06-76.73-44.41%
AESAES Corporation14.831.8514.21%
VSTVistra Corp.138.37-53.56-27.90%
CEPUCentral Puerto10.61-4.46-29.60%
TLNTalen Energy Corp343.12-70.42-17.03%

Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Hallador Energy Secures Major Long-Term Power Contracts

Positive
Oct 8, 2026

On October 7, 2026, Hallador Power Company entered into a six-year power purchase agreement and a parallel capacity deal with Duke Energy Indiana, covering 200 MW of unit-contingent energy and an annual average of 225 Zonal Resource Credits from the...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Hallador Energy Secures Major Financing for Turtle Creek Project

Positive
Sep 17, 2026

On September 15, 2026, Hallador Energy Company and its Turtle Creek Gas subsidiary closed a $600 million senior secured term loan facility led by Kennedy Lewis Investment Management, with $550 million funded at closing and a $50 million delayed draw...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Hallador Energy Amends Credit Agreement to Boost Flexibility

Positive
Aug 14, 2026

On August 11, 2026, Hallador Energy Company executed a Third Amendment to its Credit Agreement with Texas Capital Bank as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders, modifying key financial covenant definitions tied to the facility established o...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026