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Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) AI Stock Analysis
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Hallador Energy Company
(NASDAQ:HNRG)
The score is anchored by a strengthened balance sheet and improving long-term contracted revenue visibility from the earnings update and new contracts/financing. This is offset by weak technical momentum, pressured cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow), and an unfavorable reported valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support).
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $528.95M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 855.14K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 326.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.71
- Revenue Growth
- 8.47%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 633
- Sector
- Utilities
- Sector Strength
- 66
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hallador Energy Company focuses on extracting steam coal from its operations within Indiana, primarily supplying this fuel to the electric power generation sector. The company's mining assets include the subterranean Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Mine 2...
How the Company Makes Money
Hallador Energy makes money through a combination of (1) coal sales and (2) power generation-related revenues (where applicable), along with other ancillary energy-related income streams. 1) Coal production and sales (core revenue stream) - Revenue m...
Hallador Energy Company Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a mixed near-term operating picture but an overall constructive long-term outlook. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a planned major outage and some unplanned downtime, producing a Q2 net loss, negative adjusted EBITDA, and negative operating cash flow. Offsetting those short-term headwinds, management reported meaningful strategic progress: a materially enlarged and multiyear forward sales book (~$2.4B segment-level), strong capacity revenue growth (+70% YoY), significant advancement on the Turtle Creek gas project with costs coming in below prior guidance (<$800M) and a faster COD target (H2 2028), visible equipment and interconnection progress, DOE grant negotiation for Merom, and deliberate financing efforts to limit equity dilution. Management expects sequential operational improvement in Q3 and highlighted robust market demand for capacity and energy, supporting long-term revenue visibility.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Hallador guided that Turtle Creek is a proposed 460‑MW simple‑cycle gas plant with turbine equipment expected to ship in September, MISO ERAS interconnection results due mid‑August, a targeted FID and generator interconnection agreement in September, a moved COD to H2 2028 and total project costs now expected below $800 million (≈$1,700/kW) with financing structured to seek little-to-no equity dilution; operationally Merom completed a ~60‑day Unit 1 outage, invested $26.3 million in Q2 capex (Q2 total capex $26.3M) and expects sequential generation volume, reliability and availability improvement in Q3, with full‑year 2026 maintenance capex to moderate and remain consistent with 2025 levels excluding Turtle Creek; on the commercial/financial side they report forward energy & capacity sales of ~ $1.6 billion (segment forward sales ≈ $2.4 billion, consolidated contracted revenue ≈ $1.8 billion including $236.5 million of third‑party forward coal sales), accredited capacity revenue up 70% YoY to $18.6 million, total energy sales volume +17% (avg delivered energy price $41.69/MWh vs $52.66 prior year), Q2 electric sales $59.5M, consolidated revenue $101.5M, Q2 net loss $15.2M, adjusted EBITDA −$2.9M, cash used in operations $23.9M, liquidity $84.2M (cash $29M + $55.2M revolver capacity), $45M bank debt outstanding after drawing a $45M delayed‑draw term loan on May 15, and DOE negotiation of a $27.2M grant for Merom ELG work with some spending/matching expected in Q4 and into 2027–28.
Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are uneven: income statement volatility is high with a sharp TTM revenue decline and near-breakeven profitability, while cash flow quality is pressured by meaningfully negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is a clear strength with materially reduced leverage and very low debt relative to equity, providing flexibility.
Income Statement
52NeutralBalance Sheet
70PositiveCash Flow
44Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 450.47M | 469.47M | 404.39M | 634.88M | 361.99M | 247.67M |
| Gross Profit | -31.87M | 87.28M | 225.80M | 331.63M | 95.38M | 48.83M |
| EBITDA | 60.10M | 103.34M | -157.81M | 126.95M | 75.01M | 44.76M |
| Net Income | -912.00K | 41.87M | -226.14M | 44.79M | 18.11M | -3.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.04M | 437.46M | 369.12M | 589.78M | 654.08M | 353.98M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.98M | 10.07M | 7.23M | 2.84M | 6.43M | 2.55M |
| Total Debt | 46.78M | 39.07M | 53.05M | 94.54M | 102.20M | 107.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 277.40M | 277.63M | 264.83M | 321.19M | 439.05M | 167.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 190.33M | 159.83M | 104.28M | 268.59M | 215.02M | 182.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -50.46M | 11.92M | 12.57M | -15.94M | 149.00K | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.96M | 81.13M | 65.93M | 59.41M | 54.17M | 47.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.39M | -66.55M | -46.47M | -75.29M | -53.37M | -27.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 49.99M | -11.37M | -14.43M | 16.57M | -207.00K | -26.69M |
Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.53, below the 50-day MA of 14.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.
Hallador Energy Company Risk Analysis
Hallador Energy Company disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hallador Energy Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksHallador Energy Company Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CEPU67Neutral
AES63Neutral
TLN63Neutral
VST60Neutral- HNRG53Neutral
NRG52Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEPU | 67Neutral | $1.71B | 5.47 | 18.17% | 10.14% | 50.81% | 107.08% |
| Sector * | 66Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
| AES | 63Neutral | $10.58B | 5.64 | 37.94% | 4.75% | 8.22% | 88.79% |
| TLN | 63Neutral | $16.23B | -84.93 | -14.09% | ― | 27.47% | -208.54% |
| VST | 60Neutral | $46.44B | 23.06 | 41.48% | 0.66% | 9.45% | -6.51% |
| HNRG | 53Neutral | $528.95M | 326.16 | -0.52% | ― | 8.47% | ― |
| NRG | 52Neutral | $20.19B | 25.28 | 25.38% | 1.94% | 12.70% | 54.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNRG | Hallador Energy | 11.22 | -10.74 | -48.91% | |
| NRG | NRG Energy Inc | 96.06 | -76.73 | -44.41% | |
| AES | AES Corporation | 14.83 | 1.85 | 14.21% | |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 138.37 | -53.56 | -27.90% | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto | 10.61 | -4.46 | -29.60% | |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 343.12 | -70.42 | -17.03% |
Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events
Hallador Energy Secures Major Long-Term Power Contracts
PositiveOn October 7, 2026, Hallador Power Company entered into a six-year power purchase agreement and a parallel capacity deal with Duke Energy Indiana, covering 200 MW of unit-contingent energy and an annual average of 225 Zonal Resource Credits from the...
Hallador Energy Secures Major Financing for Turtle Creek Project
PositiveOn September 15, 2026, Hallador Energy Company and its Turtle Creek Gas subsidiary closed a $600 million senior secured term loan facility led by Kennedy Lewis Investment Management, with $550 million funded at closing and a $50 million delayed draw...
Hallador Energy Amends Credit Agreement to Boost Flexibility
PositiveOn August 11, 2026, Hallador Energy Company executed a Third Amendment to its Credit Agreement with Texas Capital Bank as administrative agent and a syndicate of lenders, modifying key financial covenant definitions tied to the facility established o...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026