Horace Mann Educators (HMN) Risk Analysis

Reinsurance is a contract by which one insurer, called a reinsurer, agrees to cover a portion of the losses incurred by a second insurer in the event a claim is made under a policy issued by the second insurer. Although a reinsurer is liable to our insurance subsidiaries according to the terms of the reinsurance policy, the insurance subsidiaries remain primarily liable as the direct insurers on all risks reinsured. As a result, reinsurance does not eliminate the obligation of our insurance subsidiaries to pay all claims, and each insurance subsidiary is subject to the risk that one or more of its reinsurers will be unable or unwilling to honor its obligations. Although we limit participation in our reinsurance programs to reinsurers with high financial strength ratings and also limit the amount of coverage from each reinsurer, our insurance subsidiaries cannot guarantee that their reinsurers will pay in a timely fashion, if at all. Reinsurers may become financially unsound by the time that they are called upon to pay amounts due, which may not occur for many years. Additionally, the availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to prevailing market conditions beyond our control. For example, significant losses from hurricanes, wildfires, or terrorist attacks, an increase in capital requirements, or a future lapse of the provisions of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act could have a significant adverse effect on the reinsurance market. If one of our insurance subsidiaries is unable to obtain adequate reinsurance at reasonable rates, that insurance subsidiary would have to increase its risk exposure and/or reduce the level of its underwriting commitments, which could have a material adverse effect upon the business volume and profitability of the subsidiary. Alternatively, the insurance subsidiary could elect to pay the higher than reasonable rates for reinsurance coverage, which could have a material adverse effect upon its profitability until policy premium rates could be raised, in some cases subject to approval by state regulators, to incorporate this additional cost.

Claims-paying ratings and financial strength ratings have become an increasingly important factor in establishing the competitive position of insurance companies. In the evolving 403(b) retirement market, school districts and benefit consultants have placed an emphasis on the relative financial strength ratings of competing companies. Each rating agency reviews its ratings periodically and from time to time may modify its rating criteria including, among other factors, its expectations regarding capital adequacy, profitability and revenue growth. A downgrade in the ratings or adverse change in the ratings outlook of any of our insurance subsidiaries by a major rating agency could result in substantial loss of business for that subsidiary if school districts, policyholders, distribution partners or independent agents move their business to other companies having higher claims-paying ratings and financial strength ratings than we have. This loss of business could have a material adverse effect on the results of operations and financial condition of that subsidiary. A downgrade of our debt rating also could adversely affect our cost and flexibility of borrowing, which could have an adverse effect on our liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.

The profitability of our supplemental insurance, group, life insurance, and annuity products depends significantly upon the extent to which our actual experience is consistent with the assumptions used in setting prices for our products and establishing liabilities for our future policy benefits and claims. The premiums we charge and the liabilities we hold for future policy benefits are based on assumptions reflecting several factors, including the amount of premiums we will receive in the future, rate of return on assets we purchase, expected claims, mortality, morbidity, lapse rates and expenses. In addition, for our supplemental products, historical results may not be indicative of future performance due to, among other things, changes in our mix of business, regulatory actions or changes in legal doctrine impacting our products or lines of business, or any number of economic cyclical effects including inflation. Due to the nature of the underlying risks and the degree of uncertainty associated with the determination of the liabilities for unpaid policy benefits and claims, we cannot precisely determine the amounts we will ultimately pay to settle these liabilities, the timing of such payments, or whether the assets supporting the liabilities, together with future premium, will be sufficient to satisfy the liabilities. As a result, we may experience volatility in the level of our profitability and our reserves from period to period. To the extent that actual experience is less favorable than our underlying assumptions, we could be required to increase our liabilities, which my harm our financial strength and reduce our profitability.