Henderson Land (HLDCY) AI Stock Analysis

Henderson Land

(Other OTC:HLDCY)

Select Model

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:$4.00▲(11.92% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/06/26

The overall score reflects a blend of solid, asset-backed financial strength and improving but still moderate technical momentum, offset by weakening profitability and rising leverage. Strong equity and asset growth, robust EBIT margins, and a dependable dividend underpin the rating, while the decline in net margins, higher debt-to-equity, and uneven cash conversion restrain the score from the upper tier.

Positive Factors

Diversified property business modelHenderson Land’s mix of development sales, recurring rental income, property management fees and associate/investment contributions creates multiple durable cash engines. This diversification reduces reliance on any single segment, smoothing cyclical swings in development timing and supporting steady long-term cash flow generation.

Negative Factors

Margin compression and falling net incomeSustained margin compression and YoY net income decline indicate structural pressure on profitability, potentially from higher costs, weaker project margins or a less favorable sales mix. Over months this erodes retained earnings and limits reinvestment capacity, making long-term return improvement more difficult without margin recovery.

Henderson Land (HLDCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $17.57B
Dividend Yield: 4.41%
Average Volume (3M): 126.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
Beta (1Y): 0.11
Revenue Growth: 45.10%
EPS Growth: 13.01%
Country: US
Employees: 10,078
Sector: Real Estate
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Real Estate - Diversified

Henderson Land Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HLDCY) operates as an investment holding entity, primarily engaged in real estate development and investment. Its business activities span both Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company's operations are str...

How the Company Makes Money

Henderson Land typically earns revenue and profits from multiple property-linked streams: (1) Property development sales: It develops residential and/or commercial projects and recognizes revenue when completed units are sold and delivered under appl...

Henderson Land Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is solid overall, with revenue up 14% and a strong 33.9% EBIT margin indicating resilient operations, supported by a large, stable equity base and growing assets. However, profitability is under pressure with net margin down from prior peaks, debt-to-equity nearly doubling, and operating cash flow showing inconsistency versus reported earnings, which tempers the score.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

85Very Positive

Cash Flow

68Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.63B	25.74B	25.26B	27.57B	25.44B	23.89B
Gross Profit	10.67B	8.21B	9.09B	10.03B	10.26B	12.44B
EBITDA	12.22B	9.37B	10.92B	12.83B	7.52B	9.80B
Net Income	6.84B	5.64B	6.30B	9.26B	9.24B	13.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	537.44B	539.33B	531.24B	542.55B	529.79B	550.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.38B	23.12B	18.77B	22.11B	11.74B	11.34B
Total Debt	157.65B	163.89B	83.25B	161.69B	150.09B	100.28B
Total Liabilities	194.05B	198.48B	190.66B	198.45B	184.64B	198.13B
Stockholders Equity	325.59B	322.43B	322.15B	326.54B	327.95B	335.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.68B	7.50B	15.30B	14.46B	7.95B	-54.16B
Operating Cash Flow	18.86B	12.32B	15.30B	14.46B	11.13B	685.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.58B	-8.38B	-1.87B	16.00M	12.15B	-50.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.54B	-4.75B	-21.20B	-5.42B	-21.30B	52.05B

Henderson Land Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price3.57

Price Trends

50DMA3.43Positive

100DMA3.39Positive

200DMA3.64Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.04Negative

RSI62.15Neutral

STOCH78.72Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLDCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.44, above the 50-day MA of 3.43, and below the 200-day MA of 3.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLDCY.

Henderson Land Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

HLDCY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTMX	80Outperform	$3.48B	6.48	16.39%	2.29%	17.70%	7191.37%
HLDCY	74Outperform	$17.30B	20.32	2.11%	4.41%	45.10%	13.01%
JOE	70Outperform	$3.96B	33.03	15.84%	0.91%	11.10%	17.69%
BEKE	68Neutral	$19.87B	27.11	6.99%	1.56%	-11.19%	30.74%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HHH	64Neutral	$4.55B	15.40	7.18%	―	31.83%	7.70%
CCS	41Neutral	$1.49B	13.99	4.25%	2.38%	-7.44%	-45.88%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HLDCY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
HLDCY	Henderson Land Development	3.57	0.14	4.20%
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.	76.23	-2.17	-2.77%
JOE	St. Joe Co	70.02	11.86	20.40%
CCS	Century Communities, Inc	52.59	-4.69	-8.18%
BEKE	KE Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A	17.71	1.11	6.69%
VTMX	Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. ADR	36.09	6.88	23.54%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026

Henderson Land AI Stock Analysis