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Trip.com Group Ltd.
(9961)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
HK$387.00
▲(9.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, rapid revenue growth, and improving leverage) and attractive valuation (very low P/E). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with bearish momentum) and a more cautious near-term outlook from the latest earnings call (moderated Q2 guidance and macro/regulatory headwinds).
Positive Factors
International and Inbound Growth
Strong inbound and international expansion broadens Trip.com’s addressable market beyond domestic travel. Rising traveler volumes and longer stays can support durable booking growth, supplier scale and greater monetization across accommodation and ancillary services.
Negative Factors
Cash Conversion Deterioration
Declining free cash flow alongside rising earnings weakens confidence in the quality and repeatability of reported profitability. If sustained, weaker cash conversion could constrain reinvestment capacity and make earnings normalization more consequential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
International and Inbound Growth
Strong inbound and international expansion broadens Trip.com’s addressable market beyond domestic travel. Rising traveler volumes and longer stays can support durable booking growth, supplier scale and greater monetization across accommodation and ancillary services.
Read all positive factors
Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$210.59B
Dividend Yield0.72%
Average Volume (3M)2.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.6
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth19.46%
EPS Growth87.43%
CountryHK
Employees43,574
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)48.05
Shares Outstanding695,779,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,221,248
30 Day Avg. Volume2,490,851
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)2.03
Price to Sales (P/S)5.57
P/FCF Ratio25.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$465.88Price Target Upside31.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)27.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$77.88B
Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trip.com Group Limited, a leading global travel service provider established in 1999 and based in Shanghai, China, offers an extensive range of travel and related solutions to customers worldwide. The company serves as a booking agent for accommod...
How the Company Makes Money
Trip.com Group primarily generates revenue by facilitating travel bookings and charging for services provided to travelers and travel suppliers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Accommodation reservation services: the company earns commissions and...
Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong top-line growth, robust inbound and international demand, margin expansion (adjusted EBITDA +~14% YoY), a healthy cash position (RMB 104 billion), record mobile engagement, and rapid growth in high-potential categories (entertainment-driven travel, senior travel, small-group tours). These positives are tempered by nearer-term headwinds: moderated Q2 guidance (3%–8% YoY), higher airfares and capacity constraints impacting long-haul demand, ongoing regulatory reviews and train-ticketing adjustments, and increased marketing/investment spend. Overall the company demonstrates solid underlying momentum and constructive strategic investments (notably in AI and inbound travel), while acknowledging macro and regulatory factors that may moderate short-term growth.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group net revenue of RMB 16.2 billion in Q1 2026, a 17% year-over-year increase; core OTA gross bookings of ~RMB 300 billion for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Moderated Q2 Revenue Guidance
Q2 2026 net revenue growth expected to be ~3%–8% YoY, a material moderation versus Q1's strong growth, reflecting softer near-term demand and operational adjustments.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group net revenue of RMB 16.2 billion in Q1 2026, a 17% year-over-year increase; core OTA gross bookings of ~RMB 300 billion for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trip.com guided Q2 net revenue growth of approximately 3%–8% year‑over‑year, a moderation from Q1’s 17% YoY increase when Group net revenue was RMB 16.2 billion (core OTA gross bookings ~RMB 300 billion); management said the outlook reflects higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions driving up airfares and tightening airline capacity—especially on long‑haul routes—and the near‑term impact of operational/compliance upgrades (partially reflected in the Q2 range). For context, Q1 highlights cited on the call include inbound gross bookings +90% YoY (≈7 million inbound travelers in Q1 vs ~20 million in FY2025 and a five‑year target of 200 million), international OTA gross bookings +65% YoY, accommodation revenue RMB 6.5bn (+17% YoY), transportation ticketing revenue RMB 6.1bn (+12%), package tour revenue RMB 1.1bn (+19%), corporate travel RMB 690m (+20%), adjusted EBITDA RMB 4.8bn (vs RMB 4.2bn a year ago), diluted EPS RMB 3.67 ($0.53) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS RMB 5.73 ($0.83), cash and short‑term liquidity RMB 104.0bn ($15.1bn), plus product/supply metrics (≈450k hotels, 180k attraction products; >110k suppliers engaged; ~14k first‑time inbound suppliers); management emphasized limited visibility into H2 and prudent, ROI‑driven investment while balancing near‑term discipline.Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 64.64B | 62.41B | 53.29B | 44.51B | 20.04B | 20.02B |
| Gross Profit | 51.92B | 50.29B | 43.30B | 36.39B | 15.53B | 15.43B |
| EBITDA | 36.25B | 16.61B | 14.99B | 12.14B | 960.00M | -393.00M |
| Net Income | 31.49B | 33.29B | 17.07B | 9.92B | 1.40B | -550.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 262.33B | 267.50B | 242.58B | 219.14B | 191.69B | 191.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.75B | 78.49B | 76.91B | 59.34B | 42.55B | 49.38B |
| Total Debt | 31.27B | 31.95B | 40.32B | 45.57B | 46.66B | 51.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 96.17B | 94.83B | 99.10B | 96.13B | 78.67B | 81.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 164.58B | 171.02B | 142.55B | 122.18B | 112.28B | 109.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.58B | 13.58B | 19.03B | 21.40B | 2.14B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.38B | 14.38B | 19.63B | 22.00B | 2.64B | 2.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.18B | -4.18B | -6.05B | 5.92B | 1.14B | -4.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.66B | -14.66B | -6.71B | -2.55B | -6.72B | 3.92B |
Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
355.00
Price Trends
346.20
Negative
363.35
Negative
421.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.71
Positive
27.43
Positive
5.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 355 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 344.40, above the 50-day MA of 346.20, and below the 200-day MA of 421.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.43 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9961.
Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023
Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | HK$97.89M | 16.86 | 9.46% | 5.21% | 40.65% | 78.79% | |
72 Outperform | HK$210.59B | 5.64 | 19.31% | 0.72% | 19.46% | 87.43% | |
67 Neutral | HK$123.00M | 1.45 | 6.23% | ― | 20.09% | -36.08% | |
66 Neutral | HK$27.10B | 9.03 | 10.78% | 2.26% | 15.13% | 1.87% | |
62 Neutral | HK$70.00M | 5.21 | 7.45% | ― | 17.10% | -49.82% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | HK$315.30M | 52.59 | 3.22% | 0.11% | -15.91% | -81.75% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
316.60
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Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Trip.com Hit With Major Antitrust Penalty in China
Jul 27, 2026
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has concluded an anti-monopoly investigation into Trip.com Group, finding that the company abused its dominant market position by enforcing exclusive arrangements and imposing unreasonable t...
Trip.com Group Shareholders Approve All Resolutions at 2026 AGM
Jun 30, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited announced that all resolutions proposed in its notice of annual general meeting were duly adopted at the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held in Singapore. The meeting confirmed shareholder approval for the matte...
Trip.com Group Q1 2026 Revenue Jumps 17% on Surging International and Inbound Travel
Jun 24, 2026
Trip.com Group reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 net revenues of RMB16.2 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase driven by resilient travel demand and strong performance across its core services. The company’s international business was a...
Trip.com Group Sets June 25 Release for Q1 2026 Results
Jun 11, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has scheduled an audit committee meeting for June 24, 2026, to review and approve its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with the results set to be released before trading on the Hong Kong Stock Ex...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.