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China Mengniu Dairy Co
(2319)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
HK$19.50
▲(4.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is anchored by stable financial footing with strong cash generation and improving leverage, but it is held back by recent revenue decline and materially weaker profitability versus prior years. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation remains a key risk due to a high P/E despite only a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Broad product portfolio & national distribution
Mengniu's diversified product mix and nationwide route-to-market create durable demand channels and shelf presence across daily-consumption categories. Scale in production and distribution supports procurement advantages, repeat consumer purchases and resilience to regional disruptions over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction trend
Two consecutive years of flat-to-declining top-line signal waning volume or pricing power in core categories. Sustained revenue weakness can erode scale benefits, reduce bargaining leverage with retailers, and constrain long-term reinvestment in products and distribution necessary to regain growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad product portfolio & national distribution
Mengniu's diversified product mix and nationwide route-to-market create durable demand channels and shelf presence across daily-consumption categories. Scale in production and distribution supports procurement advantages, repeat consumer purchases and resilience to regional disruptions over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$70.31B
Dividend Yield3.3%
Average Volume (3M)24.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.3
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth3.48%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryHK
Employees38,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding3,871,192,600
10 Day Avg. Volume30,346,996
30 Day Avg. Volume24,578,598
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio8.31
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$24.43Price Target Upside30.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$88.41B
China Mengniu Dairy Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mengniu primarily makes money by manufacturing dairy products and selling them to customers through multiple channels, with revenue largely driven by product sales volume multiplied by average selling price, less trade promotions and channel rebat...
China Mengniu Dairy Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 84.85B | 82.24B | 88.67B | 98.62B | 92.59B | 88.14B |
| Gross Profit | 33.21B | 32.34B | 35.09B | 36.64B | 32.69B | 32.39B |
| EBITDA | 7.91B | 7.59B | 5.87B | 11.18B | 10.51B | 9.01B |
| Net Income | 1.84B | 1.55B | 104.51M | 4.81B | 5.30B | 5.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 101.62B | 96.62B | 106.29B | 115.22B | 117.81B | 98.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.09B | 24.93B | 25.48B | 20.98B | 19.59B | 15.88B |
| Total Debt | 30.72B | 25.40B | 34.64B | 37.41B | 40.04B | 27.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 54.30B | 49.42B | 58.27B | 64.57B | 67.76B | 56.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.65B | 40.54B | 41.56B | 44.32B | 40.10B | 36.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.48B | 6.30B | 4.86B | 4.21B | 3.27B | 1.32B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.78B | 8.75B | 8.33B | 8.35B | 8.33B | 7.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -975.89M | 3.34B | -3.50B | -285.83M | -14.86B | -15.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.29B | -11.71B | -6.33B | -6.80B | 4.15B | 6.77B |
China Mengniu Dairy Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | HK$67.99B | 12.29 | 33.44% | 3.82% | 3.53% | 17.26% | |
64 Neutral | HK$6.52B | 24.29 | 9.30% | 2.77% | -3.39% | 20.09% | |
63 Neutral | HK$23.32B | 11.07 | 7.29% | 8.37% | -4.22% | -30.99% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | HK$11.62B | 12.73 | 11.77% | 5.73% | 24.27% | ― | |
57 Neutral | HK$70.31B | 32.27 | 4.53% | 3.30% | 3.48% | ― | |
39 Underperform | HK$2.05B | -2.89 | -11.03% | 4.33% | -8.08% | -376.61% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:2319
China Mengniu Dairy Co
18.10
3.39
23.02%
HK:1112
Health and Happiness (H&H) International Holdings
17.11
3.13
22.42%
HK:0322
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
12.06
1.71
16.53%
HK:0345
Vitasoy International Holdings
6.32
-2.63
-29.42%
HK:1717
Ausnutria Dairy Corp. Ltd.
1.16
-1.33
-53.43%
HK:6186
China Feihe Limited
2.53
-1.41
-35.83%
China Mengniu Dairy Co Corporate Events
China Mengniu Sets Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results and Consider Dividend
Aug 4, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has scheduled a board meeting for 26 August 2026 to review and approve the interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider the declaration of an interim dividend, which could ...
China Mengniu reshapes board with new independent director and committee changes
Jun 10, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited announced a series of board changes effective 10 June 2026, including the resignation of non-executive director Meng Fanjie from the board and the Strategy and Development Committee due to work arrangements. The...
China Mengniu Dairy Outlines Board and Committee Structure
Jun 10, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, listing three executive directors, two non-executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, with Qing Lijun serving as chairman a...
Mengniu Shareholders Approve All AGM Resolutions and Final Dividend
Jun 5, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 5 June 2026 annual general meeting were approved by poll, including adoption of the 2025 financial statements, reappointment of KPMG as auditor and re-ele...
China Mengniu Sets Final 2025 Dividend and HKD Payout Terms
Jun 5, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has declared a final ordinary dividend of RMB 0.52 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, following shareholder approval on 5 June 2026. The decision underscores the board’s continued com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.