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Prada SpA
(1913)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
HK$42.00
▲(2.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and brand economics (high and improving margins) alongside consistent free cash flow. Offsetting this are increased financial risk from higher leverage and signs of slowing top-line momentum in 2025. Technicals are supportive with the price above major moving averages, and valuation looks reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a ~3.5% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability
Sustained high gross margins and expanding EBIT margins indicate strong luxury-brand economics and effective operating leverage. This profitability provides Prada with internal funding capacity for brand investment, retail expansion, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue slowdown
The shift from several years of strong growth to a 2.2% revenue decline signals weaker top-line momentum. If this persists, slower sales could limit operating leverage, reduce investment capacity, and make continued margin expansion more difficult over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability
Sustained high gross margins and expanding EBIT margins indicate strong luxury-brand economics and effective operating leverage. This profitability provides Prada with internal funding capacity for brand investment, retail expansion, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Prada SpA (1913) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$101.89B
Dividend Yield3.77%
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth15.29%
EPS Growth1.39%
CountryHK
Employees18,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding2,558,824,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,394,560
30 Day Avg. Volume1,731,674
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)2.71
Price to Sales (P/S)2.20
P/FCF Ratio12.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$48.10Price Target Upside17.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$6.36B
Prada SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Prada S.p.A., operating with its various subsidiaries, is an international luxury fashion house that creates, manufactures, and distributes a diverse collection of high-end items. This range encompasses leather goods, handbags, footwear, clothing,...
How the Company Makes Money
Prada makes money primarily by selling luxury products across its brand portfolio through a mix of retail, online, and wholesale channels. The largest revenue stream is typically the sale of luxury goods—especially leather goods (e.g., handbags an...
Prada SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: solid group revenue and retail growth, strong outperformance from Miu Miu, steady adjusted profitability and improved working capital, accompanied by strategic investments in digital, stores and sustainability. Key near‑term challenges include FX headwinds, Prada's modest decline (now improving), selective wholesale disruption, and the expected dilutive, transitional impact from the newly acquired Versace business as it is repositioned. Management emphasized discipline, margin protection (ex‑Versace), and a patient, phased plan for Versace and store/channel optimization.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Net revenues of EUR 5.7 billion, up 9% versus FY24 at constant FX and +8% organic year‑on‑year (reported growth +5% after a c.380 bps FX headwind). This marks the fifth consecutive year of group growth.
Negative Updates
Prada Brand Softness
Prada retail finished the year down 1% (full year); although Q4 turned positive, Prada faced tough mid‑year periods and remains on a recovery/normalization path.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Net revenues of EUR 5.7 billion, up 9% versus FY24 at constant FX and +8% organic year‑on‑year (reported growth +5% after a c.380 bps FX headwind). This marks the fifth consecutive year of group growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the group is targeting continued solid, sustainable organic growth for Prada, Miu Miu and the Group in 2026 despite meaningful FX headwinds similar to 2025 (FY25 FX drag ~380bps), and that—excluding Versace—they expect ongoing organic margin progression and the ability to deliver a steady EBIT margin provided reported top‑line growth stays in the mid‑single‑digit range; Versace (full‑year pro‑forma revenues ~€680m, one month consolidated in 2025) will be a transition year with a mid‑single‑digit revenue contraction at constant FX (likely high‑single‑digit at reported FX), gross margin expected to be relatively stable (duties caveat), and an EBIT loss in 2026 targeted to be a limited “two‑digit” figure while initial synergies and selective reinvestment support a progressive improvement from 2027; management also flagged CapEx should start to decline as a percentage of sales (FY25 CapEx €617m, €535m ex‑real estate), marketing will rise slightly as a percent of sales, and efficiency gains in labor, rent and G&A are expected to help offset pressures.Prada SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.08B | 5.72B | 5.43B | 4.73B | 4.20B | 3.37B |
| Gross Profit | 4.83B | 4.59B | 4.34B | 3.80B | 3.31B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 2.12B | 2.11B | 2.01B | 1.73B | 1.42B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 798.60M | 851.94M | 838.91M | 671.03M | 465.19M | 294.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.88B | 11.01B | 8.55B | 7.62B | 7.38B | 6.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.26B | 1.01B | 689.52M | 1.09B | 981.79M |
| Total Debt | 4.83B | 4.82B | 2.79B | 2.60B | 2.67B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.28B | 6.35B | 4.13B | 3.74B | 3.88B | 3.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.58B | 4.64B | 4.40B | 3.85B | 3.48B | 3.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.10B | 1.00B | 1.19B | 395.61M | 882.20M | 923.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.70B | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.16B | 1.12B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.79B | -1.75B | -462.45M | -759.19M | -250.21M | -137.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 467.46M | 432.67M | -875.47M | -775.73M | -787.38M | -494.73M |
Prada SpA Technical Analysis
Negative
41.02
Price Trends
38.86
Negative
39.68
Negative
38.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
47.86
Neutral
21.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1913, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.79, above the 50-day MA of 38.86, and above the 200-day MA of 38.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1913.
Prada SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | HK$101.89B | 14.68 | 17.31% | 3.77% | 15.29% | 1.39% | |
76 Outperform | HK$8.28B | 2.85 | 19.31% | 8.69% | 16.22% | 151.59% | |
71 Outperform | HK$2.30B | 9.15 | 6.71% | 9.24% | 3.51% | 27.91% | |
69 Neutral | HK$11.84B | 5.79 | 14.28% | 6.50% | 28.96% | 86.00% | |
65 Neutral | HK$4.53B | 5.26 | 17.29% | 10.01% | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | HK$108.63B | 11.97 | 33.61% | 6.09% | 5.29% | 53.87% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:1913
Prada SpA
39.82
-4.26
-9.67%
HK:0116
Chow Sang Sang Holdings International
12.32
-0.57
-4.41%
HK:1929
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group
11.01
-3.40
-23.61%
HK:0113
Dickson Concepts (International)
5.95
1.15
23.83%
HK:0590
Luk Fook Holdings (International)
20.16
-3.22
-13.76%
HK:6168
Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. Class H
10.29
-30.65
-74.86%
Prada SpA Corporate Events
Prada posts resilient nine-month revenue growth as Versace and Americas boost sales
Oct 22, 2026
Prada Group reported unaudited net revenues of €4.54 billion for the nine months to 30 September 2026, up 15% year-on-year at constant exchange rates and 4% on an organic basis, with the third quarter still growing despite a tougher market b...
Prada Sets Board Meeting to Approve Nine-Month Unaudited Revenues
Oct 8, 2026
Prada S.p.A. has scheduled a meeting of its Board of Directors for October 22, 2026, in Milan to review and approve the announcement of unaudited quarterly revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. The approval and subsequent publicat...
Prada Delivers Double-Digit Revenue Growth and Stable Margins in First Half of 2026
Jul 30, 2026
Prada Group reported strong growth for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with net revenues rising 16% year-on-year to €3,048 million and organic growth of 5%. Retail sales reached €2,633 million, up 12% and 3% organically, as the sec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.