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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
(1866)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
HK$12.50
▲(47.41% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
Overall score reflects pressured financials (margin compression, rising leverage, and deeply negative recent free cash flow) offset by supportive technical strength (price above all key moving averages) and a relatively attractive valuation (low P/E and moderate dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Material long-term revenue growth
Material revenue expansion versus 2020 indicates the company has increased the scale of its fertiliser business over time. Although recent momentum has cooled, a larger revenue base can support operating continuity, customer reach, and future earnings recovery if margins stabilise.
Negative Factors
Sustained margin compression
The substantial reduction in gross margin shows that a smaller share of sales is converting into gross profit than in earlier years. Continuing pressure from weaker pricing, product mix, or higher input costs could limit earnings recovery and reduce resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material long-term revenue growth
Material revenue expansion versus 2020 indicates the company has increased the scale of its fertiliser business over time. Although recent momentum has cooled, a larger revenue base can support operating continuity, customer reach, and future earnings recovery if margins stabilise.
Read all positive factors
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$14.45B
Dividend Yield3.44%
Average Volume (3M)4.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth24.29%
EPS Growth-7.52%
CountryHK
Employees12,964
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding1,283,241,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,653,137
30 Day Avg. Volume4,375,068
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-3.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$14.31Price Target Upside68.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$32.45B
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. operates as an investment holding company, primarily focusing on the development, production, and global sale of urea, with a significant presence in Mainland China. Beyond its core fertilizer offerings, the company's div...
How the Company Makes Money
China XLX Fertiliser primarily makes money by selling fertiliser products it manufactures, with revenue largely driven by sales volumes and realised selling prices of its nitrogen fertiliser portfolio (notably urea). Its earnings are influenced by...
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.35B | 23.13B | 23.48B | 23.07B | 16.98B |
| Gross Profit | 3.80B | 3.93B | 4.17B | 4.35B | 4.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.54B | 3.38B | 3.75B | 4.13B | 3.83B |
| Net Income | 932.02M | 1.46B | 1.19B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 38.78B | 32.52B | 29.13B | 27.87B | 25.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.55B | 895.06M | 1.17B | 1.48B | 906.19M |
| Total Debt | 17.61B | 13.07B | 11.76B | 12.71B | 11.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.30B | 20.00B | 18.62B | 18.30B | 17.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.75B | 8.96B | 7.69B | 6.89B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.64B | -1.52B | 1.86B | 612.63M | -1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.38B | 3.35B | 5.33B | 4.38B | 2.75B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.41B | -4.29B | -3.47B | -3.72B | -3.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.35B | 665.77M | -2.16B | -82.18M | 1.19B |
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
8.48
Price Trends
9.62
Positive
9.90
Positive
9.78
Positive
Market Momentum
0.48
Negative
61.58
Neutral
41.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1866, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.58, below the 50-day MA of 9.62, and below the 200-day MA of 9.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1866.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | HK$9.45B | 6.12 | 11.35% | 7.20% | 16.17% | 26.33% | |
65 Neutral | HK$8.33B | 19.41 | 12.69% | 1.05% | 27.03% | 24.60% | |
64 Neutral | HK$14.45B | 9.20 | 12.16% | 3.44% | 24.29% | -7.52% | |
62 Neutral | HK$9.29B | 9.24 | 4.47% | 6.50% | 3.52% | -14.56% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
40 Underperform | HK$8.60B | 29.52 | 1.87% | 1.02% | -1.80% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HK:1866
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
10.77
3.54
48.94%
HK:3983
China BlueChemical
1.98
-0.35
-14.94%
HK:0297
Sinofert Holdings
1.31
-0.11
-7.58%
HK:0509
Century Sunshine Group Holdings Limited
0.17
0.00
0.00%
HK:1907
China Risun Group Ltd.
1.86
-0.61
-24.60%
HK:9879
Migao Group Holdings Limited
9.10
2.94
47.77%
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Corporate Events
China XLX Fertiliser Delivers Strong 1H2026 Profit on Scale and Product Upgrades
Aug 28, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, highlighting strong top- and bottom-line growth driven by expanded production capacity and efficiency gains. Revenue rose 24% year-on-year to RMB15.7 bi...
China XLX Fertiliser Sets Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results
Aug 14, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 28 August 2026 to review and approve the consolidated interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The forthcoming publication of these figures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange w...
China XLX Fertiliser Signals Profit Surge on Scale Gains and Strong Coal-Chemical Prices
Jul 31, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has issued a positive profit alert for the six months ended 30 June 2026, projecting net profit of RMB1.15 billion to RMB1.23 billion, up 52% to 62% year on year. Profit attributable to shareholders is expected at RMB850 ...
China XLX Fertiliser Reclassifies New Board Member to Non-Executive Role
Jul 22, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has re-designated recently appointed board member Mr. Tan Wei Shyan from independent non-executive director to non-executive director, effective 22 July 2026, after considering guidance from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange o...
China XLX Fertiliser Clarifies Board Roles and Governance Structure
Jul 22, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has outlined the composition and responsibilities of its board of directors, underscoring a clear division of roles between executive and independent non-executive members. Chairman and executive director Liu Xingxu overs...
China XLX Fertiliser Wins Full Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Jun 23, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. reported that shareholders approved all resolutions at its annual general meeting on 23 June 2026, including the adoption of audited financial statements for 2025 and a final dividend of RMB0.32 per share. Investors also ...
China XLX Fertiliser Clarifies Board Structure and Governance Roles
Jun 23, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has detailed the composition of its board of directors and clarified the specific roles of each member across executive and independent non-executive positions. The structure assigns clear responsibility for strategic pla...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.