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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
(1866)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
HK$9.50
▲(12.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals—margin compression, higher leverage, and sharply negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 despite positive operating cash flow. Offsetting this, price action is technically constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum readings. Valuation is a relative positive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Material revenue expansion versus 2020 indicates that China XLX has increased the scale of its fertiliser business over time. A larger revenue base can support operating leverage, broader customer reach, and continued investment in production and distribution capabilities.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
The sustained decline in gross margin indicates that profitability has become less resilient, reflecting weaker pricing or mix and/or higher input costs. Lower margins reduce the earnings buffer available to absorb further cost pressure and make future profit growth more difficult.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Material revenue expansion versus 2020 indicates that China XLX has increased the scale of its fertiliser business over time. A larger revenue base can support operating leverage, broader customer reach, and continued investment in production and distribution capabilities.
Read all positive factors
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$12.02B
Dividend Yield3.95%
Average Volume (3M)3.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth24.29%
EPS Growth-7.52%
CountryHK
Employees13,115
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding1,283,241,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,520,199
30 Day Avg. Volume3,897,102
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-3.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$14.27Price Target Upside68.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$30.89B
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. operates as an investment holding company, primarily focusing on the development, production, and global sale of urea, with a significant presence in Mainland China. Beyond its core fertilizer offerings, the company's div...
How the Company Makes Money
China XLX Fertiliser primarily makes money by selling fertiliser products it manufactures, with revenue largely driven by sales volumes and realised selling prices of its nitrogen fertiliser portfolio (notably urea). Its earnings are influenced by...
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.21B | 25.35B | 23.13B | 23.48B | 23.07B | 16.98B |
| Gross Profit | 4.75B | 3.80B | 3.93B | 4.17B | 4.35B | 4.39B |
| EBITDA | 4.43B | 3.58B | 3.55B | 3.78B | 4.13B | 3.83B |
| Net Income | 1.24B | 932.02M | 1.46B | 1.19B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 44.05B | 38.78B | 32.52B | 29.13B | 27.87B | 25.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.99B | 1.55B | 895.06M | 1.17B | 1.48B | 906.19M |
| Total Debt | 20.58B | 17.61B | 13.07B | 11.76B | 12.71B | 11.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.87B | 25.30B | 20.00B | 18.62B | 18.30B | 17.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.66B | 9.75B | 8.96B | 7.69B | 6.89B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.20B | -2.64B | -1.52B | 1.86B | 612.63M | -1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.91B | 3.38B | 3.35B | 5.33B | 4.38B | 2.75B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.41B | -5.41B | -4.29B | -3.47B | -3.72B | -3.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.74B | 2.35B | 665.77M | -2.16B | -82.18M | 1.19B |
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
8.48
Price Trends
10.30
Negative
9.71
Negative
10.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
40.85
Neutral
47.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1866, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.94, below the 50-day MA of 10.30, and below the 200-day MA of 10.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1866.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | HK$8.50B | 5.64 | 11.35% | 7.76% | 16.17% | 26.33% | |
65 Neutral | HK$8.54B | 19.94 | 12.69% | 1.02% | 27.03% | 24.60% | |
62 Neutral | HK$8.37B | 8.44 | 4.47% | 7.07% | 3.52% | -14.56% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | HK$12.02B | 7.95 | 12.16% | 3.95% | 24.29% | -7.52% | |
41 Neutral | HK$6.86B | 24.02 | 1.89% | 1.23% | -1.88% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HK:1866
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
9.37
2.40
34.52%
HK:3983
China BlueChemical
1.82
-0.42
-18.86%
HK:0297
Sinofert Holdings
1.21
-0.26
-17.69%
HK:0509
Century Sunshine Group Holdings Limited
0.17
0.00
0.00%
HK:1907
China Risun Group Ltd.
1.54
-0.79
-33.85%
HK:9879
Migao Group Holdings Limited
9.40
2.82
42.86%
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Corporate Events
China XLX Fertiliser Launches 10-Year Share Incentive Scheme Using Existing Shares
Oct 26, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has adopted a ten-year share incentive scheme funded entirely by existing shares, aimed at rewarding and retaining directors, senior management, and core employees who contribute to the group’s long-term development...
China XLX boosts profits on expansion, higher-value fertilisers and chemicals
Oct 26, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. reported strong operating performance for the nine months ended 30 September 2026, driven by an integrated fertiliser and chemical strategy and ongoing product mix optimisation. The Jiangxi Phase II and New Chemical Mater...
China XLX Fertiliser Sets Board Meeting to Approve Q3 Results
Oct 12, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., a Singapore-incorporated fertiliser producer listed in Hong Kong, operates through multiple subsidiaries and maintains a structured board with executive, non-executive and independent directors. The governance setup unde...
China XLX Fertiliser Delivers Strong 1H2026 Profit on Scale and Product Upgrades
Aug 28, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, highlighting strong top- and bottom-line growth driven by expanded production capacity and efficiency gains. Revenue rose 24% year-on-year to RMB15.7 bi...
China XLX Fertiliser Sets Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results
Aug 14, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 28 August 2026 to review and approve the consolidated interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The forthcoming publication of these figures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange w...
China XLX Fertiliser Signals Profit Surge on Scale Gains and Strong Coal-Chemical Prices
Jul 31, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has issued a positive profit alert for the six months ended 30 June 2026, projecting net profit of RMB1.15 billion to RMB1.23 billion, up 52% to 62% year on year. Profit attributable to shareholders is expected at RMB850 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.