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Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) AI Stock Analysis

HK:1638

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.

(HKEX:1638)

Select Model
Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:HKD 0.01â–²(0.00% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:10/23/26

The score is driven primarily by weak financial resilience, including substantial leverage and a history of losses, followed by clearly bearish technical trends. The unusually low reported P/E provides limited support because dividend data is unavailable and the company remains financially distressed.

Positive Factors
Debt reductionThe sharp reduction in total debt during 2025 is a constructive step for financial resilience. If sustained, lower obligations could reduce refinancing pressure, improve balance-sheet flexibility, and allow more operating cash to support projects or creditor commitments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Shrinking revenue baseThe prolonged revenue contraction indicates a materially smaller operating base and weaker development scale than in 2020. Lower revenue can reduce fixed-cost absorption, limit cash available for debt service, and make it harder for future growth initiatives to offset property-market pressure.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%HK:1638-87.07%EWH+7.37%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
HKD 190.10M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
60.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
0.0
Beta (1Y)
1.34
Revenue Growth
-16.73%
EPS Growth
―
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
14,789
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. functions as an investment holding company primarily dedicated to real estate development, property investment, and asset management throughout the People's Republic of China. The firm constructs a wide variety of properties...

How the Company Makes Money

Kaisa Group historically makes money primarily through property development activities, where revenue is recognized from the sale of properties (e.g., residential units, commercial units, parking spaces) to end-buyers and investors. This typically in...

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 profitability, positive equity, and improved cash flow indicate recovery, but high leverage, prior negative equity, declining revenue, and inconsistent margins keep financial strength near the minimum.

Income Statement

35Negative

Balance Sheet

25Negative

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.00B9.50B11.56B26.16B25.39B35.54B
Gross Profit1.75B451.84M-11.06B1.70B1.70B-1.65B
EBITDA55.03B55.83B-18.70B-16.52B-10.70B-11.19B
Net Income53.26B52.55B-28.53B-19.93B-13.06B-12.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets177.13B184.15B210.68B232.82B264.34B290.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.56B1.12B1.61B1.96B2.97B7.69B
Total Debt85.10B48.78B135.64B134.20B134.76B132.33B
Total Liabilities166.55B164.70B242.42B225.10B229.10B231.05B
Stockholders Equity2.11B10.92B-40.58B-12.05B7.86B21.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-175.75M763.94M-315.23M-435.72M-6.33B-22.49B
Operating Cash Flow-126.71M836.98M-124.81M-359.18M-6.26B-21.85B
Investing Cash Flow341.88M227.91M982.51M-604.37M2.02B-13.19B
Financing Cash Flow-1.16B-1.35B-1.13B-199.14M3.17B2.05B

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.01

Price Trends

50DMA0.03Negative
100DMA0.04Negative
200DMA0.06Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Negative
RSI18.74Positive
STOCH16.19Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1638, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, below the 50-day MA of 0.03, and below the 200-day MA of 0.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 18.74 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1638.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

HK:1638 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
HK:3383HK:338346NeutralHKD 645.89M-0.02117.21%―-27.68%-54.58%
HK:1813HK:181345NeutralHKD 310.90M-0.07-330.41%―-48.10%-106.59%
HK:3900HK:390043NeutralHKD 14.04B-208.12-0.16%5.93%1.45%77.50%
HK:2777HK:277742NeutralHKD 694.19M-0.03256.28%―38.77%7.00%
HK:1638HK:163840UnderperformHKD 190.10M0.00817.88%―-16.73%―
HK:1238HK:123839UnderperformHKD 616.92M-0.14-14.48%―-22.15%32.63%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%HK:1638HK:3383HK:3900HK:2777HK:1813HK:1238Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HK:1638 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HK:1638Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.0.01-0.10-87.18%
HK:3383Agile Group Holdings 0.13-0.29-69.16%
HK:3900Greentown China Holdings 5.53-2.74-33.13%
HK:2777Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Class H0.18-0.38-66.96%
HK:1813KWG Group Holdings0.09-0.18-66.30%
HK:1238Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd.0.15-0.12-43.77%

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Kaisa’s Revenue Slumps but Sales Surge as Losses Persist in First Half 2026

Aug 31, 2026

Kaisa Group reported a sharp 40.6% drop in total revenue to RMB2.20 billion for the first half of 2026, underscoring ongoing pressure in its core property development operations. Despite this, gross profit rose 22.7% to RMB567.8 million and margin im...

Kaisa flags narrowed but still hefty interim loss amid lower property impairments

Aug 24, 2026

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., a Chinese property developer listed in Hong Kong, operates through multiple subsidiaries with a core focus on real estate projects. Its performance is closely tied to the valuation and financial health of its property portf...

Kaisa Group Sets August Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results

Aug 17, 2026

Kaisa Group Holdings has scheduled a board meeting for 31 August 2026 to review and approve the group’s interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider whether to recommend an interim dividend, a decision clo...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026