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AIA Group
(1299)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
HK$80.00
â–²(7.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid (but somewhat volatile) financial performance and a strong, confidence-boosting earnings call with reiterated guidance and robust profitability/cash metrics. These positives are partly offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation appears reasonable and supportive.
Positive Factors
Record new-business growth and high margins
Sustained growth in value of new business indicates strong customer demand and effective distribution. The high margin supports attractive economics on new policies and provides a durable base for future earnings as the in-force portfolio matures.
Negative Factors
Higher debt and declining free cash flow
Although leverage remains reasonable, the sharp increase in debt reduces financial flexibility if profitability weakens or markets become less supportive. The simultaneous decline in free cash flow makes the recent balance-sheet expansion an important medium-term risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record new-business growth and high margins
Sustained growth in value of new business indicates strong customer demand and effective distribution. The high margin supports attractive economics on new policies and provides a durable base for future earnings as the in-force portfolio matures.
Read all positive factors
AIA Group (1299) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$715.99B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)26.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth13.31%
EPS Growth36.76%
CountryHK
Employees27,421
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding10,346,645,000
10 Day Avg. Volume26,316,795
30 Day Avg. Volume26,991,666
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.60
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio21.06
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$102.50Price Target Upside38.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$24.40B
AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension ...
How the Company Makes Money
AIA primarily makes money through (1) insurance underwriting and policy-related charges and (2) investment returns on the assets it manages to back policyholder obligations and shareholder capital.
1) Insurance underwriting and policy-related inc...
AIA Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broad set of strong, double-digit results across new business, earnings and cash generation with record ROE and improved efficiency. Regional performances were robust—notably China (+20% VONB), India (+31% VONB) and Hong Kong (record H1 VONB +10%, margin 72%)—and management reiterated confidence in exceeding its OPAT per share target and returning capital to shareholders (10% interim dividend increase; $3.6bn returned in H1). Headwinds discussed were largely short-term or transitional: regulatory-driven bancassurance disruption in China, quarter-to-quarter volatility, competitive intensity in Hong Kong, and timing of holdco capital flows. Management described concrete mitigations (product mix shifts, ALM, IFRS 17 benefits, tech/AI investments) and emphasized the durability of their franchise and capital position. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum substantially outweighs the transient challenges.Positive Updates
Record Value of New Business (VONB)
VONB increased 10% to a record $3.2 billion; underlying VONB growth of 14% when adjusting for Thailand; VONB has compounded at 17% p.a. over the last 3 years.
Negative Updates
Thailand Comparative and Quarterly Volatility
Thailand had an 'exceptionally high comparative' period affecting headline comparisons; Q1 Thailand weakness noted (recovered in Q2) and some quarter-to-quarter volatility across markets.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Value of New Business (VONB)
VONB increased 10% to a record $3.2 billion; underlying VONB growth of 14% when adjusting for Thailand; VONB has compounded at 17% p.a. over the last 3 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated confident guidance that AIA will exceed its 9–11% OPAT-per-share CAGR target for 2023–2026, citing H1 operating profit after tax of $4.2bn (+13% per share), record operating ROE of 17.5%, and strong cash conversion (underlying free surplus generation $3.9bn, +10% per share; net free surplus generation $2.8bn, +12% per share); group VONB was a record $3.2bn (+10%, underlying +14% ex‑Thailand) at a 57.1% VONB margin, with Premier Agency contributing 72% of group VONB (China agency VONB margin ~60%, Hong Kong margin 72%), EV operating profit $6.6bn (+12% per share) and operating ROEV ~18% (+220bps), EV equity $87.1bn pre‑returns ($83.4bn after $3.6bn H1 returns, +6% per share), and an in‑force portfolio expected to generate $57bn of distributable earnings over the next 10 years (+15% vs H1 2025); capital policy remains disciplined (shareholder capital ratio 210% at 30 June, target to return 75% of annual net free surplus generation, $26.6bn returned since 2022) and the Board declared a 10% interim DPS increase to HKD0.539, all underpinning the outlook (and China remains on track for its 40% VONB CAGR to 2030).AIA Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.44B | 32.58B | 20.36B | 20.03B | -24.96B | 46.90B |
| Gross Profit | 27.24B | 32.58B | 28.02B | 19.76B | -18.87B | 46.36B |
| EBITDA | 10.22B | 8.15B | 8.92B | 5.46B | 4.84B | 9.22B |
| Net Income | 7.99B | 6.24B | 6.84B | 3.76B | 3.33B | 7.43B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 359.98B | 345.38B | 305.33B | 286.22B | 270.58B | 334.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.78B | 9.61B | 8.10B | 11.52B | 8.02B | 4.99B |
| Total Debt | 21.15B | 20.58B | 18.28B | 15.62B | 13.35B | 11.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 318.96B | 301.78B | 264.53B | 244.64B | 225.41B | 273.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.67B | 43.24B | 40.47B | 41.10B | 44.69B | 60.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 5.14B | 3.03B | 10.59B | 9.48B | 3.27B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 5.33B | 3.26B | 10.92B | 9.87B | 3.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -479.77M | -941.39M | -945.00M | -2.14B | -817.00M | -2.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.29B | -3.08B | -5.69B | -6.07B | -4.79B | -1.66B |
AIA Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | HK$182.73B | 3.97 | 38.57% | 7.02% | 44.36% | 53.14% | |
78 Outperform | HK$1.10T | 4.19 | 39.88% | 4.14% | 38.17% | 134.02% | |
77 Outperform | HK$325.89B | 5.30 | 18.41% | 6.55% | 11.90% | 22.71% | |
77 Outperform | HK$68.32B | 2.14 | 33.37% | 6.43% | 18.51% | 293.61% | |
73 Outperform | HK$1.05T | 6.04 | 15.80% | 6.08% | 10.72% | 38.29% | |
70 Outperform | HK$715.99B | 11.56 | 19.05% | 2.87% | 13.31% | 36.76% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1299
AIA Group
68.95
-4.45
-6.07%
HK:2318
Ping An Insurance Company of China
51.75
1.32
2.61%
HK:2601
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co
27.60
-1.29
-4.46%
HK:2628
China Life Insurance Co
27.56
6.52
30.97%
HK:0966
China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co
19.13
5.18
37.12%
HK:1336
New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. Class H
44.18
1.01
2.33%
AIA Group Corporate Events
AIA Posts Record VONB and Signals Faster Earnings Growth in Strong First Half
Aug 19, 2026
AIA Group reported strong interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026, with double-digit growth across key financial metrics and continued capital returns to shareholders. The value of new business rose 10 per cent to a record US$3.2 billio...
AIA Group Declares Interim Dividend for First Half of 2026
Aug 19, 2026
AIA Group Limited has declared an interim ordinary cash dividend of HKD 0.539 per share for the six months ended 30 June 2026, payable in Hong Kong dollars. The dividend will be distributed to shareholders on 22 September 2026, with an ex-dividend...
AIA Group Sets August Committee Meeting to Review Interim Results and Dividend
Jul 30, 2026
AIA Group Limited has scheduled a meeting of a board-appointed committee for 20 August 2026 in Hong Kong. The committee will review and approve the company’s interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, and will also consider the d...
AIA Group Sets Deadline for Unclaimed 2019 Final Dividend
Jun 30, 2026
AIA Group has announced that its final dividend for 2019, amounting to 93.30 Hong Kong cents per share and originally payable on 19 June 2020, will be forfeited and revert to the company if it remains unclaimed by 31 July 2026 under its Articles o...
AIA Shareholders Back All AGM Resolutions, Approve Dividend and Governance Changes
May 22, 2026
AIA Group shareholders approved all resolutions at the 22 May 2026 annual general meeting, including receipt of the 2025 audited accounts, declaration of a final dividend of 144.08 Hong Kong cents per share, and the appointment of KPMG as auditor ...
AIA Group Updates Board and Committee Line-Up to Strengthen Governance
May 22, 2026
AIA Group Limited has released an updated roster of its board of directors, confirming Sir Mark Edward Tucker as independent non-executive chairman and Lee Yuan Siong as the sole executive director serving as group chief executive and president. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.