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Green Brick Partners
(NYSE:GRBK)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▼(-3.83% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
GRBK’s score is led by strong fundamentals—high profitability and a notably conservative balance sheet—supported by favorable valuation (low P/E). The earnings call adds a positive structural outlook (orders, margins, mortgage expansion) but is moderated by near-term housing demand pressure, higher incentives, and declining backlog/revenue visibility. Technically, the stock shows short-term softness versus the 20/50-day averages despite staying above longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong and resilient profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins indicate effective pricing, cost control, and disciplined construction execution. This profitability provides room to absorb housing-market volatility, fund land investment, and preserve earnings power even as product mix and demand conditions evolve.
Negative Factors
Revenue and backlog are contracting
Lower closings revenue and a smaller backlog reduce near-term revenue visibility and can pressure fixed-cost absorption. If weaker conversion persists, the company may experience slower earnings growth and less operating leverage despite its strong underlying margins and land position.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong and resilient profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins indicate effective pricing, cost control, and disciplined construction execution. This profitability provides room to absorb housing-market volatility, fund land investment, and preserve earnings power even as product mix and demand conditions evolve.
Read all positive factors
Green Brick Partners Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)391.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-8.66%
EPS Growth-14.97%
CountryUS
Employees620
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.67
Shares Outstanding43,010,696
10 Day Avg. Volume363,222
30 Day Avg. Volume391,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio13.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.12
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)6.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.91B
Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is an American enterprise primarily engaged in the construction of residential properties and the development of land. The company's operations are segmented into its Central and Southeast building divisions, alongside a...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Brick Partners makes money primarily by building and selling homes to homebuyers. Revenue is recognized largely from home closings (when a completed home is delivered to the customer), which typically represents the company’s largest revenue...
Green Brick Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive operational and financial picture: strong order growth (+19% YoY), rapid expansion of the mortgage business (+257% funded loans YoY), disciplined land strategy, low leverage and high margins relative to peers. These positives are tempered by near-term demand sensitivity to interest rates, increased incentives (up ~180 bps YoY), an 11.4% decline in home closings revenue, a 24% decline in backlog revenue and modest declines in net income and EPS. Management emphasizes operational execution, margin discipline and a long-term growth plan, while noting spotty market trends in July and the need for rate buydowns. Overall, the company appears well-positioned structurally and financially but faces near-term market headwinds that it is actively managing.Positive Updates
Strong Order Growth
Net new home orders increased 19% year-over-year in Q2 (1,079 orders), driven primarily by Trophy Signature Homes and higher community count and sales pace.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Income and EPS
Net income attributable to Green Brick decreased 9.5% year-over-year to $74 million in Q2 and diluted earnings per share declined 8% to $1.70 per share.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Order Growth
Net new home orders increased 19% year-over-year in Q2 (1,079 orders), driven primarily by Trophy Signature Homes and higher community count and sales pace.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Green Brick guided that it will continue community expansion in H2 2026, roll out Green Brick Mortgage to Providence (Atlanta) by year‑end and expects its mortgage capture rate to exceed 70% by year‑end (Q2 capture 66%; Q2 funded loans 521, up 257% YoY and 43% sequentially). For 2026 the company expects about $400 million of land and lot acquisitions and roughly $450 million of land development outflows (excluding reimbursements), will target roughly 1–2 months of completed spec supply, and plans opportunistic share repurchases with $151 million of authorization remaining. At June 30 liquidity was $462 million (cash $132 million, $330 million revolver undrawn), total debt excluding warehouse $252 million (with $75 million senior notes maturing in 12 months), homebuilding debt-to-capital/net homebuilding debt-to-capital were 11.2%/6.1%, and the company cited ~52,000 lots owned/under contract (≈76% owned) with an effective lot supply of ~5 years (excluding future phases).Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95B | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.78B | 1.76B | 1.40B |
| Gross Profit | 608.83M | 635.70M | 703.52M | 548.18M | 523.02M | 362.06M |
| EBITDA | 408.27M | 443.29M | 516.76M | 394.86M | 398.83M | 230.53M |
| Net Income | 291.33M | 313.23M | 381.58M | 284.63M | 291.90M | 190.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.63B | 2.54B | 2.25B | 1.90B | 1.66B | 1.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 131.64M | 190.99M | 141.54M | 179.76M | 76.59M | 77.17M |
| Total Debt | 314.54M | 335.41M | 344.95M | 354.76M | 371.42M | 339.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 601.78M | 603.90M | 551.83M | 548.68M | 543.62M | 511.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.98B | 1.86B | 1.63B | 1.30B | 1.06B | 874.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 108.45M | 208.45M | 21.55M | 205.54M | 88.66M | -94.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 114.04M | 213.24M | 25.91M | 213.34M | 90.68M | -92.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.15M | -43.55M | 27.84M | -13.35M | -6.48M | -2.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -75.27M | -138.40M | -93.51M | -93.80M | -84.48M | 154.33M |
Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis
Negative
72.79
Price Trends
69.42
Negative
70.79
Negative
69.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.49
Positive
33.15
Neutral
7.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.69, above the 50-day MA of 69.42, and above the 200-day MA of 69.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRBK.
Green Brick Partners Risk Analysis
Green Brick Partners disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Brick Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $3.23B | 10.53 | 9.97% | ― | -4.94% | -35.08% | |
73 Outperform | $2.70B | 9.42 | 15.42% | ― | -8.66% | -14.97% | |
69 Neutral | $37.73B | 12.81 | 12.77% | 1.33% | -3.54% | -15.86% | |
63 Neutral | $3.83B | 12.25 | 6.38% | 3.18% | -13.27% | -45.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.58B | 12.16 | 5.21% | 2.25% | -8.37% | -45.09% | |
51 Neutral | $2.62B | 11.91 | 5.93% | 2.32% | -20.80% | -50.30% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
62.86
0.02
0.03%
DHI
DR Horton
134.88
-15.90
-10.55%
KBH
KB Home
43.13
-13.89
-24.37%
MHO
M/I Homes
127.82
-1.90
-1.46%
MTH
Meritage
58.81
-6.15
-9.47%
CCS
Century Communities
55.67
-0.96
-1.69%
Green Brick Partners Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Green Brick Partners Announces Board Director Resignation
Neutral
Aug 27, 2026
On August 21, 2026, Green Brick Partners, Inc. announced that director Harry Brandler resigned from its Board of Directors, effective immediately. The company stated that Brandler is stepping down to devote more time to recent business ventures an...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Green Brick Partners announces leadership transition and governance shift
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Green Brick Partners announced that President and Chief Operating Officer Jed Dolson will be promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer, effective October 15, 2026. The company disclosed that there are no special arrangements, relate...
Dividends
Green Brick Partners Announces Upcoming Preferred Dividend Payment
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Green Brick Partners will pay a quarterly dividend to holders of record as of September 1, 2026 of its Series A depositary shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in its 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred S...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.